Part of: Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
This Polymarket asks whether the US-Iranian ceasefire will remain in effect through May 31, resolving Yes unless the U.S. conducts a qualifying kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the deadline. PolySpotter is tracking $3,022 in smart money activity and 1 signal, with recent alerts showing both Yes buying from a serial trader and a sharp No-buying cluster.
49 smart money signals detected, totaling $187,430.
Categories: Iran, Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Sharp whale buying NO
A highly profitable 80% lifetime bettor bought No before a sharp move from 70¢ to 85¢ amid a major volume spike.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $2.3M lifetime.
- They bought $3.0K of No at 70¢ before the market moved to 85¢.
- The market saw a 78.6x volume spike and a fast move toward No.
$3,022 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
89% serial cross-market sharp
Sharp 89% lifetime wallet with extensive cross-market history is effectively buying Yes on the Iran ceasefire market while positioned across four related markets.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $170K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $3.1M deployed across 129 markets in 75 events.
- Selling No at 15¢ is effectively buying Yes at 85¢, matching the current ceasefire-favorites view.
$1,548 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Sharp No-buying cluster
High-scoring four-wallet cluster is buying No, backed by one very strong 84% winner and multiple cross-market bettors positioning around the same Iran event.
- Four wallets bought $11.4K of No together, with entries around 17–24¢ while No now trades near 20¢.
- One wallet in the cluster wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $471K lifetime.
- Several wallets are active across related Iran markets, including a serial cross-market trader with 38 events tracked.
$11,416 on No
90% winner adds Yes
Sharp wallet with a 90% resolved-bet win rate and $712k profit is extending a large cross-market Iran ceasefire thesis by buying Yes at 90¢.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved bets and is up $712k lifetime.
- They have built a broad thesis across 8–9 related markets, with over $100k positioned in the event.
- Buying Yes at 90¢ shows they still see value despite the market already pricing the ceasefire as likely.
$1,026 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
90% winner cross-market buyer
Sharp wallet with a 90% resolved-bet win rate and nearly $299k lifetime profit is buying Yes as part of a $90k cross-market Iran ceasefire thesis.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up about $299k lifetime.
- They have placed $90.7k across 7 related markets, showing a broad ceasefire thesis.
- Buying at 88¢ suggests confidence despite the market already pricing Yes as likely.
$6,129 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
90% winner cross-market whale
Sharp wallet with a 90% historical win rate and $291k profit is buying Yes while building a large cross-market position on the same Iran ceasefire event.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved bets and is up $291k lifetime.
- They have put $88k across 6 related ceasefire markets, showing a broader directional thesis.
- This $5k buy is at 88¢, implying confidence despite the market already pricing Yes near 86%.
$4,970 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
17-0 cross-market bettor
Surface because this is a profitable 17-0 wallet adding a cross-market Iran ceasefire position across four related markets despite the market being fairly liquid.
- This bettor has won 17 of 17 resolved trades and is up $3,789 lifetime.
- They have placed $27,722 across 4 related ceasefire markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying Yes at 86¢ means they are backing the ceasefire to hold despite already-high market odds.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
87% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet with an 87% resolved win rate and nearly $494k lifetime profit is buying Yes while also positioning across related Iran ceasefire markets.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $494k lifetime.
- They have $6.2k positioned across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader ceasefire thesis.
- Entry at 86¢ is in a liquid market, so the signal is mainly the bettor’s strong track record.
$1,019 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
92% cross-market bettor
A high-hit-rate wallet is building a $20k cross-market thesis across five related Iran ceasefire markets, though its lifetime P&L is slightly negative.
- This bettor has won 12 of 13 resolved bets and is positioning across five related markets.
- They have put $20,632 into the same event, suggesting a broader ceasefire thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- Entry at 84¢ means they are backing the ceasefire to hold despite Yes falling 6.5 points today.
$1,319 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
90% winner on ceasefire thesis
A highly profitable 90% winner is adding to a broader cross-market Iran ceasefire thesis with meaningful size despite a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $291K lifetime.
- They have put nearly $90K across 5 related markets, pointing to a clear ceasefire thesis.
- Market activity is running 10x above normal, and this buy came at 84¢ after a 6.5-point daily dip.
$8,574 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
Top Holders
- 0xbc43...1540 — Outcome 67986522, $122,528 (84% win rate)
- 0x3bc6...cba3 — Outcome 67986522, $50,000
- 0x2974...9c23 — Outcome 67986522, $35,751 (89% win rate)
- 0xb9d8...762d — Outcome 67986522, $30,000
- 0x830e...4ace — Outcome 67986522, $28,284 (85% win rate)
- 0x88c4...129a — Outcome 67986522, $17,473 (88% win rate)
- 0xdc41...362b — Outcome 67986522, $15,890 (100% win rate)
- 0xecaa...77a9 — Outcome 67986522, $10,059 (72% win rate)
- 0x8c42...3656 — Outcome 67986522, $7,471 (93% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 67986522, $5,899
