US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
46 signals across 1 market · $167,228 tracked · resolves May 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether the United States and Iran will publicly announce a mutual nuclear agreement by May 31, 2026. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome, with PolySpotter monitoring smart money activity across the market, including a recent whale buying NO.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp clustered Yes buyer
Sharp 89% winner with positive lifetime P&L made a bullish Yes trade, backed by a 13-wallet shared-funder cluster and strong recent market momentum.
$4,746Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 8.0 - Sharp 13-wallet cluster buys YES
A profitable 89% winner in a 13-wallet funded cluster effectively bought Yes on the nuclear deal market with a $6.2k position.
$6,181Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 8.0 - 89% winner buying YES
Sharp 89% winner is effectively buying Yes on a politically information-sensitive market with strong recent momentum and linked-wallet context.
$1,557Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 8.0 - 89% winner exits No
A profitable 89% win-rate wallet from a 13-wallet funded cluster sold No, effectively shifting toward Yes after a sharp weekly rally.
$1,861Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 8.0 - 17-wallet funded cluster
A known 17-wallet funded cluster made a small bullish Yes bet on a politically meaningful market, equivalent to buying Yes at 16¢.
$1,895Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.0 - New whale buying NO
A 6-day-old repeat whale is building a $6.7k No position on a geopolitics market while the No price has moved sharply higher.
$6,677Wallet win rate: 0%Score: 7.1 - Profitable new repeat bettor
A new repeat bettor with 6 resolved wins and positive P&L is continuing to back No in a high-volume political market.
$1,869Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 6.0 - Profitable new wallet buying NO
A repeat-flagged new wallet with early profitability is buying No on a politically significant market despite recent Yes momentum.
$2,000Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 6.0 - 6-day repeat whale buying NO
A 6-day-old repeat large bettor put $5.3k on No in a politically plausible market, extending a $52.8k flagged betting pattern despite no resolved track record yet.
$5,280Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 5.5 - New repeat whale on No
A 2-day-old repeat large bettor put $4.9k on No in a geopolitics market after 16 flagged bets totaling $29k, though there is no resolved track record yet.
$4,916Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 5.5
Top wallets in this event
- 0x5f176a…519e$28,500 · 1 market · 1 alert · 90% wins
- 0xa1d82a…a786$26,526 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 67% wins
- 0x8150b6…a80e$16,000 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0x9c987f…f4f4$14,344 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 94% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$11,953 · 1 market · 6 alerts · 63% wins
- 0xa3130d…eb44$10,510 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 53% wins
- 0xe73874…df65$9,111 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 64% wins
- 0x3660ce…7810$6,677 · 1 market · 1 alert · 0% wins
- 0xe2708b…0fc7$5,222 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 88% wins
- 0xc96e52…f1f9$4,846 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 79% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
The live Polymarket odds reflect how traders are pricing the chance that the US and Iran reach an official nuclear agreement before the May 31, 2026 deadline. PolySpotter tracks those market moves along with smart money positioning.
What does this US-Iran nuclear deal prediction market resolve on?
The market resolves to Yes if the United States and Iran publicly announce a mutual agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no such agreement is reached by then, it resolves to No.
What is smart money doing in this market?
PolySpotter has tracked $6,677 in smart money activity across this event. The latest signal showed a whale buying NO, suggesting at least one large trader is positioning against a deal being reached by the deadline.
Is this a Polymarket market on the US-Iran nuclear deal?
Yes. This event is a Polymarket prediction market focused on whether the US and Iran reach an official nuclear agreement by the stated deadline, with Yes and No shares trading based on market expectations.