Part of: US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

This Polymarket asks whether the United States and Iran will publicly announce a mutual agreement on Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapons development by May 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $6,677 in smart money activity on this market, with a recent whale signal buying NO. The market resolves Yes if an official agreement is reached before the deadline, even if it takes effect later; otherwise it resolves No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $6,677.

Categories: Iran Ceasefire, Middle East, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

New whale buying NO

A 6-day-old repeat whale is building a $6.7k No position on a geopolitics market while the No price has moved sharply higher.

  • A 6-day-old wallet has now made 5 flagged large bets totaling $9.3k.
  • This trade built a $6.7k No position, with buys from 68¢ up to 81¢.
  • No has moved about 16 points higher during the activity, suggesting the bettor helped push the market.

$6,677 on No | Wallet win rate: 0%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbacd...ab35 Yes, $38,409 (48% win rate)
  2. 0x9c98...f4f4 No, $27,781 (89% win rate)
  3. 0x3660...7810 No, $25,059 (0% win rate)
  4. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $20,433 (85% win rate)
  5. 0x9013...fc71 Yes, $15,206 (90% win rate)
  6. 0xbaa2...2c73 Yes, $14,673 (63% win rate)
  7. 0xd426...334a Yes, $13,901 (37% win rate)
  8. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $13,206 (47% win rate)
  9. 0x7c3d...5c6b Yes, $12,222 (44% win rate)
  10. 0xe4ac...448a No, $10,177 (100% win rate)

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

23dUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?$6,677 tracked1 signalIran CeasefireMiddle EastU.S. x IranIranGeopolitics
Yes
17¢
No
83¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Price History — “No
91¢
77¢
63¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

4h ago

$6,677 on No at 76¢

76¢83¢7¢