What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?
21 signals across 2 markets · $36,531 tracked · resolves May 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Trump and the United States agree to key Iranian demands by May 31, 2026, with markets focused on outcomes such as Iranian oil sanction relief. PolySpotter monitors the event for smart-money activity, including a recent signal from a profitable serial cross-market bettor.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- 84% winner buying Yes
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 84% resolved win rate and +$435k lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes on a geopolitical market.
$1,306Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 9.0 - Profitable serial cross-market trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% record and $310k profit is buying No on a geopolitics market with meaningful recent movement.
$2,168Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 8.0 - 77% serial cross-market winner
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 77% win rate is buying No despite recent Yes momentum on a policy market.
$4,020Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 8.0 - 83% winner buying YES
Sharp wallet with 83% historical win rate and $425k profit is effectively buying Yes on a geopolitically plausible market with recent upward momentum.
$2,276Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 6.0 - 74% serial macro winner
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate and $310k lifetime profit bought No on a geopolitical sanctions market.
$1,852Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 5.0 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes at 15¢ on a quiet geopolitical market.
$1,576Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial macro bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 78% resolved win rate and $382k profit bought No on Iranian oil sanction relief despite recent Yes-side momentum.
$1,747Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial cross-market trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is buying Yes at 12¢, though the position size is modest relative to their history.
$1,021Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.46M lifetime P&L is re-entering Yes at 16¢ on a geopolitics market where informed positioning is plausible.
$1,108Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 4.0 - 92% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet with a 92% historical win rate bought Yes on a geopolitics market that has already moved sharply upward.
$1,174Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xc96e52…f1f9$9,787 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 76% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$7,270 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 79% wins
- 0xe73874…df65$4,673 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 64% wins
- 0x614dc8…1546$3,834 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$3,705 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 64% wins
- 0x52a175…7833$1,817 · 1 market · 1 alert · 87% wins
- 0xbd0477…fbb0$1,570 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins
- 0x199df4…6e7b$1,500 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins
- 0x0a2605…1851$1,200 · 1 market · 1 alert · 77% wins
- 0x23d96a…3a2e$1,174 · 1 market · 1 alert · 92% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Trump agrees to Iranian demands by May 31?
The live odds are set by Polymarket traders and can change as negotiations, sanctions headlines, and geopolitical developments unfold. This event hub tracks the relevant Iran-demand markets together so you can see how expectations are shifting.
Which Iranian demands are being traded in this event?
The listed child market currently focuses on whether Trump will agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31. Related event context also references nuclear-enrichment terms, so traders may price broader U.S.-Iran negotiation risk into the market.
Is smart money betting on this Trump-Iran Polymarket event?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,576 in smart-money activity across this event, including a recent alert tied to a profitable serial cross-market bettor. That does not guarantee the outcome, but it highlights where experienced traders are taking positions.
When does this Polymarket event resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve based on whether the relevant U.S. agreement with Iran occurs by May 31, 2026, according to the market rules and accepted resolution sources.