Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
8 signals across 1 market · $33,235 tracked · resolves Sep 30, 2026
This event tracks prediction-market odds on where the next formal senior-level U.S.-Iran peace talks will begin by September 30, 2026. The current child market focuses on whether the next diplomatic meeting happens in Qatar, with PolySpotter tracking $2,264 in smart-money activity and a signal from a profitable diplomacy specialist.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Six-wallet one-way surge
Six wallets bought the same side into a major diplomatic market surge, with $14.3k of one-way Yes flow, a 113x volume spike, and a 28-point price move.
$14,252Score: 13.4 - 10-wallet funded cluster
A 10-wallet shared-funder cluster is buying Yes into a major 1-day price move on a plausible geopolitics market, despite the individual wallet lacking a strong track record.
$1,395Wallet win rate: 45%Score: 8.0 - Profitable diplomacy specialist
Sharp, highly profitable cross-market trader bought Yes on a diplomacy market after a major 1-day price move.
$1,760Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 6.0 - Profitable diplomacy specialist
Sharp, highly profitable cross-market trader bought Yes on a diplomacy market after a major 1-day price move.
$2,169Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 6.0 - Profitable diplomacy specialist
Sharp, highly profitable cross-market trader bought Yes on a diplomacy market after a major 1-day price move.
$2,264Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 6.0 - Profitable diplomacy specialist
Sharp, highly profitable cross-market trader bought Yes on a diplomacy market after a major 1-day price move.
$2,700Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 6.0 - Profitable diplomacy specialist
Sharp, highly profitable cross-market trader bought Yes on a diplomacy market after a major 1-day price move.
$1,750Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 6.0 - 3-wallet rally fade
Three wallets are fading a sharp one-day rally by selling Yes together, with the lead wallet showing a long profitable history despite only modest win rates.
$6,944Score: 5.1
Top wallets in this event
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$10,643 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 82% wins
- 0xb3ebf9…b529$1,395 · 1 market · 1 alert · 45% wins
FAQs
What are the odds the next US-Iran talks are in Qatar?
The event’s active market asks whether the next formal senior-level U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting will be held in Qatar by September 30, 2026. Check the live Polymarket price on PolySpotter for the current implied odds.
What is the smart money doing on this US-Iran peace talks market?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,264 in smart-money activity across this event, including one recent signal flagged from a profitable diplomacy specialist. That suggests at least one historically successful geopolitics trader has taken interest in the Qatar outcome.
How will this US-Iran talks location market resolve?
The market resolves based on the country where the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between U.S. and Iranian representatives begins by September 30, 2026. For this child market, the relevant outcome is whether that country is Qatar.
Why does Qatar matter for US-Iran negotiations?
Qatar has often played a mediation role in regional diplomacy, making it a plausible venue for sensitive U.S.-Iran talks. Prediction-market traders are weighing that diplomatic history against other possible host countries.
Where can I track US-Iran peace talks prediction market odds?
You can track the event on PolySpotter to see Polymarket odds, smart-money alerts, and trader activity for the next U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting location.