Part of: Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether a qualifying formal, senior-level diplomatic meeting between U.S. and Iranian representatives will occur by September 30, 2026. It follows reported progress in Switzerland talks and resolves based on the market’s criteria for the next formal round of negotiations; current odds are shown on the live market page.

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins. If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.” If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.” For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.” If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.” The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,724.

Categories: Peace Deal, Iran, Trump, Nuclear, Geopolitics, US-Iran, Israel x Iran, Khamenei, Iran Ceasefire, Vance, Politics, U.S. x Iran, nuclear deal

Notable Trades

Serial sharp backing No

A highly experienced trader with 332 resolved bets and a meaningful edge is adding to a consistent four-market thesis by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 69%.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 332 resolved trades and is up $693,127 lifetime.
  • The trader is positioning across four markets in the same event, with $19,702 committed to the thesis.
  • Selling Yes at 31¢ is equivalent to buying No at 69¢, matching the current market odds while reinforcing the bearish outcome.

$4,196 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Serial sharp backing No

A highly experienced trader with 332 resolved bets and a meaningful edge is adding to a consistent four-market thesis by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 69%.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 332 resolved trades and is up $693,127 lifetime.
  • The trader is positioning across four markets in the same event, with $19,702 committed to the thesis.
  • Selling Yes at 31¢ is equivalent to buying No at 69¢, matching the current market odds while reinforcing the bearish outcome.

$2,018 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Serial sharp backing No

A highly experienced trader with 332 resolved bets and a meaningful edge is adding to a consistent four-market thesis by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 69%.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 332 resolved trades and is up $693,127 lifetime.
  • The trader is positioning across four markets in the same event, with $19,702 committed to the thesis.
  • Selling Yes at 31¢ is equivalent to buying No at 69¢, matching the current market odds while reinforcing the bearish outcome.

$2,510 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $57,351
  2. 0xa551...e050 No, $45,739 (71% win rate)
  3. 0x6bab...0fe5 Yes, $18,219 (73% win rate)
  4. 0x60a9...5a71 Yes, $16,516 (49% win rate)
  5. 0x67d6...245e Yes, $12,394 (49% win rate)
  6. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $12,372 (69% win rate)
  7. 0x9d84...1344 No, $10,585 (43% win rate)
  8. 0x854e...b675 Yes, $9,240 (80% win rate)
  9. 0x76db...6987 Yes, $8,205
  10. 0x3423...fe57 Yes, $5,875

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran surrenders uranium in May

Covers 4 related markets

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

37dWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?$8,724 tracked3 signalsPeace DealIranTrumpNuclearGeopoliticsUS-IranIsrael x IranKhameneiIran CeasefireVancePoliticsU.S. x Irannuclear deal
Yes
81¢
No
19¢

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins. If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.” If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.” For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.” If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.” The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
82¢
73¢
63¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

10d ago

$4,196 on No at 69¢

69¢19¢50¢

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

14d ago

$2,018 on No at 69¢

69¢19¢50¢

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

24d ago

$2,510 on No at 69¢

69¢19¢50¢

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks
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Crude oil market arbitrage
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Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Hormuz blockade persists
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Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
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US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
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Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
Iran deal by mid-June
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US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran surrenders uranium in May
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Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…