Part of: Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the next formal senior-level round of diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran will begin in Switzerland by September 30, 2026. It follows the June 22 Switzerland talks, where mediators reported progress toward a roadmap for a final deal, and tracks live market expectations plus smart money activity, including $2,360 currently tracked.

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins. If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.” If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.” For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.” If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.” The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,360.

Categories: Peace Deal, Iran, Trump, Nuclear, Geopolitics, US-Iran, Israel x Iran, Khamenei, Iran Ceasefire, Vance, Politics, U.S. x Iran, nuclear deal

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market sharp

Sharp, highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought No on the Switzerland talks market, backed by an 80% resolved win rate and $854k lifetime profit.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $854k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $3.8M total activity.
  • Buying No at 59¢ after a 14-point daily move suggests they are fading the Switzerland follow-up narrative.

$2,360 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $57,351
  2. 0xf567...d3ef Yes, $21,186 (60% win rate)
  3. 0xd426...334a Yes, $7,082 (48% win rate)
  4. 0x3423...fe57 Yes, $5,875
  5. 0x7a38...d6ab Yes, $5,668 (60% win rate)
  6. 0x0845...6b6f Yes, $4,245 (70% win rate)
  7. 0x9d84...1344 Yes, $3,323 (43% win rate)
  8. 0x2a32...0188 No, $2,468
  9. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $2,355 (48% win rate)
  10. 0x9352...2227 Yes, $2,000 (63% win rate)

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

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Crude oil market arbitrage

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WTI stays between $90 and $105

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Hormuz blockade persists

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Iran peace deal won’t happen

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Iran closes airspace mid-May

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Covers 4 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

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Iran surrenders uranium in May

Covers 4 related markets

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?

37dWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?$2,360 tracked1 signalPeace DealIranTrumpNuclearGeopoliticsUS-IranIsrael x IranKhameneiIran CeasefireVancePoliticsU.S. x Irannuclear deal
Yes
9¢
No
92¢

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins. If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.” If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.” For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.” If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.” The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
93¢
90¢
87¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?

51d ago

$2,360 on No at 59¢

59¢92¢33¢

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks
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WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Hormuz blockade persists
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Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Iran deal by mid-June
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US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran surrenders uranium in May
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