Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
18 signals across 1 market · $146,856 tracked · resolves Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
A funded 3-wallet cluster is taking the same side via a new wallet, and this trade bought Yes at 18¢ in a major geopolitics market with meaningful size.
$5,280Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 8.5 - Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
A high-volume geopolitical trade from a proven 75% winner with activity across 46 related events is worth surfacing despite the rich 87¢ entry, especially as it coincides with an unusual volume surge.
$22,691Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 6.1 - Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
A proven high-volume trader with a 75% win rate sold No at 86¢ on a geopolitics market and the price has already moved in their favor to 79¢.
$17,247Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 4.0 - Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate sold No at 81¢ in a geopolitics market, effectively taking the Yes side before the price moved further against them.
$5,693Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 4.0 - Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
A proven profitable trader with a 75% win rate and activity across 45 events just put $12.1k into No on a major geopolitics market at 88¢, which is notable despite the otherwise liquid market.
$12,119Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 4.0 - Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a solid 75% win rate bought No at 84¢ in a major geopolitics market and is already marked up to 91¢.
$3,944Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 4.0 - Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong 75% win rate took a fresh $9k position against the market favorite, signaling a deliberate geopolitical contrarian bet worth watching.
$9,025Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 4.0 - Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 75% win rate took a fresh $10.6k position against No at 85¢ in a major geopolitics market, making it a credible thesis trade worth watching despite only one signal.
$10,604Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 4.0 - Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
A proven high-volume trader with a 75% win rate sold No at 81¢ in a geopolitics market, effectively taking the bullish Yes side at a much lower implied price than the market now shows.
$3,297Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 4.0 - Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
A proven high-volume bettor with a 75% win rate and $133k profit is buying No in a major geopolitics market at 79¢, making this worth watching despite only one moderate-strength signal.
$4,597Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x35bbba…009b$132,026 · 1 market · 15 alerts · 74% wins
- 0xe73874…df65$5,693 · 1 market · 1 alert · 68% wins
- 0xfa3520…26d2$5,280 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0xa8c63f…44e8$3,857 · 1 market · 1 alert · 75% wins