Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
8 signals across 1 market · $27,096 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Donald Trump will grant Ghislaine Maxwell a pardon, commutation, or reprieve before the end of 2026. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome, while PolySpotter has flagged smart-money activity including a 74% win-rate macro bettor and a proven cross-market bettor buying No.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 84% serial cross-market bettor
A profitable serial cross-market trader with an 84% win rate placed a $12k No bet in a relatively quiet political market.
$12,038Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 7.0 - Sharp bettor buying NO
Sharp wallet with 85% wins across 40 resolved bets bought $3.3k of No on a quiet long-dated political market.
$3,300Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 7.0 - 84% winner buying No
A highly experienced cross-market bettor with an 84% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No on a political pardon market.
$3,719Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 5.3 - 84% winner buying NO
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 84% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No at 90¢ on a quiet market.
$1,521Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 5.0 - 74% win-rate macro bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong long-term record bought No at 85¢, and the position is already marked up to 90¢.
$1,295Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 5.0 - Sharp bettor trims No
A proven profitable wallet with a 77% record is reducing its No exposure, which translates to a small Yes-side signal despite not being a fresh position.
$1,143Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 5.0 - 88% serial cross-market winner
A proven 88% lifetime winner with extensive cross-market history bought No at 85¢, and the market has already moved toward them to 90¢.
$2,920Wallet win rate: 89%Score: 5.0 - Proven cross-market bettor buys NO
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 74% resolved win rate and $164k profit bought No on a long-dated Trump pardon market, though the bet size is modest.
$1,160Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 5.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xe74995…f771$17,278 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 86% wins
- 0xf7ebaa…31c3$4,443 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 77% wins
- 0x95074f…7b04$2,920 · 1 market · 1 alert · 89% wins
- 0xfb5148…742d$2,455 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 70% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Trump pardons Ghislaine Maxwell by the end of 2026?
The live Polymarket odds show how traders are pricing the chance that Trump grants Maxwell a pardon, commutation, or reprieve by December 31, 2026. Check the market price for the latest implied probability.
What is smart money doing in this prediction market?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,455 in smart-money activity across this event, including signals from a 74% win-rate macro bettor and a proven cross-market bettor buying No.
What exactly counts as a Yes outcome?
The market resolves Yes if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026.
When does this Polymarket event resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve after December 31, 2026, unless it becomes impossible for Trump to issue a qualifying federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve before then.
Where does the resolution information come from?
Resolution is expected to rely primarily on official U.S. government information confirming whether Maxwell received a qualifying pardon, commutation, or reprieve.