Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?
This Polymarket asks whether President Trump, the US government, or the US military will publicly and officially announce that military operations against Iran have ended by April 21, 2026. For a Yes resolution, the statement must clearly confirm the operation has concluded; informal comments, leaks, or unnamed-source reports do not count. The market is currently drawing smart money attention around the likelihood of an official end-of-operations announcement before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
36 smart money signals detected, totaling $189,090.
Categories: Politics, Middle East, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, US-Iran, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Proven event trader buying No
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a large proven sample and positive P&L is adding a meaningful No position in a politically news-driven market after a sharp move lower in Yes.
- This bettor has 888 resolved trades, wins 65% of them, and is up $183.6k overall
- They trade across related markets at scale — 220 events and 313 markets suggests a repeatable event-driven process
- They bought No at 87¢ after Yes fell 14.5 points in a day, backing the view that an official end announcement is still unlikely
$3,045 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
88% winner adds cross-market thesis
A bettor with an 88% win rate and positive P&L is extending a cross-market thesis by buying No at 88¢ in a high-volume geopolitical market after a sharp drop in Yes odds.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $15.4k overall
- They are betting across 2 related markets on the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade
- Buying No at 88¢ came after Yes fell 28.5 points in a day, reinforcing the market move in a major news-driven market
$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Sharp event-thesis bettor
A historically profitable wallet with a 74% win rate is building the same thesis across five related Iran-operation markets, suggesting a coordinated event view worth tracking.
- This bettor has won 235 of 317 resolved trades and is up about $216k overall
- They have put $66k across 5 related Iran-operation markets, showing a clear event-wide view
- They bought No at 80¢ while this market was falling fast, backing the idea that no official end will be announced by April 21
$1,569 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
83% win-rate event bettor
A proven 83% win-rate trader is making a fresh event-wide bearish bet here, but this specific fill is less compelling than usual because it’s a small trade in a very liquid market and they have traded this market before.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades across 254 markets and has bet over $100k across 6 related markets in this event
- They bought No at 80¢, aligning with the market favorite after prices drifted lower for Yes over the past week
- This looks like a fresh re-entry on this market, but the $2.2k size is modest relative to the market’s $556k 24-hour volume
$2,155 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
Proven trader buying No
A proven high-volume profitable trader with 887 resolved bets sold Yes at 26¢, which translates into a copyable BUY No around 74¢ in this market.
- This bettor has 887 resolved bets, wins 64% of the time, and is up $1.36M lifetime
- They trade heavily across related markets and have put $110k into this event across 2 markets
- This sale of Yes at 26¢ equals buying No at 74¢, and the market still offers about 78¢ now
$4,171 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable event-thesis bettor
A highly active, profitable cross-market trader with 867 resolved bets and nearly $300k in profit is pressing the same event thesis again by buying No at 79¢.
- This bettor has 867 resolved bets, wins 66% of the time, and is up about $296k
- They have traded 4 markets in this same event for nearly $30k, showing a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 79¢ in a liquid market, signaling they see low odds of an official end-of-operations announcement by April 21
$1,580 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
88% winner, event thesis
A highly profitable 88% win-rate wallet is re-entering this Iran operations market as part of a broader 4-market event thesis, making the trade worth watching despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $396k lifetime
- They have put nearly $27.8k across 4 related markets in the same event, which suggests a broader thesis instead of a one-off punt
- This is a fresh Yes buy at 26¢ in a liquid news-driven market, implying they see the end-of-operations odds as too low
$1,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable geopolitical thesis trader
This is a profitable serial cross-market trader with a very large history and $1.36M realized profit taking a fresh Yes position in a major geopolitics market.
- This bettor has won 64% of 887 resolved markets and is up $1.36M lifetime
- They have traded 52 related markets across 38 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven approach
- They bought Yes at 27¢ in a major geopolitics market, a price that implies they see the odds as meaningfully too low
$1,115 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
82% winner reloading NO
A profitable wallet with an 82% win rate re-entered a sizable No position across four related Iran markets as event-wide volume surged, signaling a strong repeat thesis rather than routine flow.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and has made about $37k in profit.
- They put $18.2k back into No at 68¢ after previously closing a No position, showing renewed conviction.
- They have bet $85.9k across 4 related Iran markets while event volume jumped 47x above normal.
$18,168 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Proven cross-market event trader
A highly profitable serial event trader sold Yes at 40¢, which translates to buying No around 60¢, aligning with a broad cross-market thesis from a wallet with nearly $980k in profits.
- This bettor has won 64% of 888 resolved markets and is up about $980k lifetime
- They have traded 52 markets across 38 related events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven edge
- Their sell at 40¢ on Yes converts to buying No at 60¢, backing the side now priced around 65¢
$13,138 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — Yes, $172,533 (64% win rate)
- 0xea79...a9cc — No, $66,546 (66% win rate)
- 0xc851...cd2a — Yes, $58,279 (51% win rate)
- 0xf396...ed0d — No, $50,471 (82% win rate)
- 0xa9e6...1dc2 — No, $42,607 (83% win rate)
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Yes, $33,888 (93% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — Yes, $31,162 (71% win rate)
- 0x56b5...b0a2 — Yes, $30,819 (100% win rate)
- 0x4478...02a4 — Yes, $30,000 (58% win rate)
- 0x7a16...33db — No, $28,717 (64% win rate)
