Part of: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

10 smart money signals detected, totaling $54,187.

Categories: Iran, Middle East, Trump, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, Nuclear, Negotiation Topics

Notable Trades

Profitable whale buying No

Despite a low composite score, this is worth surfacing because a highly profitable wallet with 307 resolved bets bought nearly $10k of No and moved the market sharply.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $563k lifetime.
They bought $9.8k of No at 87¢, adding conviction to the market’s already bearish pricing.
The trade helped push No up 18.5 percentage points in under 3 minutes.

$9,760 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

85% winner buying long-shot Yes

A proven 85% winner is taking the contrarian Yes side by selling No at 85¢, making this a copy-worthy sharp-wallet signal despite modest size.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is profitable across 13 tracked positions.
Selling No at 85¢ is the same as buying Yes at 15¢, a long-shot position with about 6.7x upside.
The trade goes against a recent move toward No, suggesting a deliberate contrarian view.

$1,660 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Profitable new wallet on No

A repeat new-wallet bettor with early profits put $4.4k on No, coinciding with a fast move in the same direction on a geopolitics market.

This 26-day-old wallet has already been flagged 3 times and is up $684 on $14.3k invested.
The bettor put $4.4k on No at 88¢, adding to a sharp move toward No within minutes.
The market has heavy recent volume, so this is more notable as momentum plus a repeat profitable new wallet than just size alone.

$4,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable serial macro trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought $9.5k of No on a geopolitical market while No rapidly moved up 18.5 percentage points.

This bettor is up $732k lifetime across 188 resolved markets.
They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.6M placed across 120 markets and 53 events.
Their $9.5k No buy came during a fast move, with No jumping 18.5 points in under 3 minutes.

$9,465 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought No, adding to a sharp short-term move in a geopolitics market.

This bettor has won 70% of 1,134 resolved bets and is up about $1.05M lifetime.
They have traded across 43 related markets in 28 events, suggesting a repeatable research edge.
Their No buy came during a rapid 18.5-point move higher in under 3 minutes.

$4,652 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Sharp bettor buying NO

Surfaced because the wallet has a proven 81% record over 21 resolved bets and is adding a fresh No position despite only a modest signal score.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $4.1K lifetime.
Their past bets beat market odds by 17 percentage points on average.
Entry at 58¢ on No implies they see Iran failing to agree by July 31 as underpriced.

$2,815 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Sharp bettor buying NO

Surfaced because the wallet has a proven 81% record over 21 resolved bets and is adding a fresh No position despite only a modest signal score.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $4.1K lifetime.
Their past bets beat market odds by 17 percentage points on average.
Entry at 58¢ on No implies they see Iran failing to agree by July 31 as underpriced.

$1,581 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Sharp bettor buying NO

Surfaced because the wallet has a proven 81% record over 21 resolved bets and is adding a fresh No position despite only a modest signal score.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $4.1K lifetime.
Their past bets beat market odds by 17 percentage points on average.
Entry at 58¢ on No implies they see Iran failing to agree by July 31 as underpriced.

$1,933 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

93% winner buying momentum

Sharp-wallet override: a proven 93% winner with positive lifetime P&L bought Yes on a geopolitics market despite only a modest $1k trade.

This bettor has won 93% of resolved trades and is up $13,944 lifetime.
They bought Yes at 72¢ as the market has surged 17 points today and 42.5 points this week.
Their average winning entry is 68¢, close to this 72¢ buy, suggesting this is still within their usual range.

$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

Sharp wallets piling into No

Four wallets bought $16.9k of No amid a 107x volume spike, including a profitable 81% winner and highly active cross-market bettors.

Four wallets bought the same side for $16.9k as market volume spiked 107x above normal.
One bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up nearly $4k on $97k invested.
The No price has already moved to 70%, suggesting this cluster caught the market during a sharp repricing.

$16,921 on No

Top Holders

0x44c1...ebc1 — Outcome 74748380, $12,878 (60% win rate)
0x2be6...8ae5 — Outcome 74748380, $9,500
0x0e6f...dfb9 — Outcome 74748380, $6,308
0x1dd1...a156 — Outcome 74748380, $4,310 (53% win rate)
0xc040...beac — Outcome 74748380, $4,267 (52% win rate)
0x6ffa...b3c4 — Outcome 74748380, $4,163
0xd286...2322 — Outcome 74748380, $3,641 (96% win rate)
0x4c43...f964 — Outcome 74748380, $3,200
0x135d...56c0 — Outcome 74748380, $2,829 (85% win rate)
0xb476...6eac — Outcome 74748380, $2,183 (65% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran closes airspace after May 8

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Iran will stay in MOU negotiations

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Iran deal after July

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US obtains Iranian enriched uranium

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Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Resolved Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$54,187 tracked10 signalsIranMiddle EastTrumpGeopoliticsU.S. x IranIran CeasefirePoliticsNuclearNegotiation Topics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No”

102¢

100¢

97¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction