Part of: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
This prediction market asks whether J.D. Vance will win and accept the 2028 Republican Party nomination for U.S. president. It resolves based on official Republican Party sources, with resolution scheduled for November 7, 2028; current smart money tracked is $5,495 across 1 signal, including recent No-side activity from political traders.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $71,445.
Categories: Politics, US Election, Elections, World Elections, Global Elections, Earn 4%, Primaries, United States
Notable Trades
97% winner fading Vance
Sharp wallet with a 97% resolved-bet win rate and +$65.7k lifetime P&L is fading Vance across related 2028 GOP nomination markets.
- This bettor has won 28 of 29 resolved bets and is up $65.7k lifetime.
- They put $5.5k against Vance here, part of $10.9k across related 2028 GOP nomination markets.
- Selling Yes at 34¢ is equivalent to buying No at 66¢.
$5,495 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
Profitable cluster buying No
Three wallets, including a highly active profitable cross-market trader, simultaneously positioned on No, though the market is liquid and long-dated.
- Three wallets put $9.6k on No at 66¢ within about one minute.
- The strongest wallet has over 1,000 resolved bets, wins 62%, and is up $136k lifetime.
- This is a coordinated anti-Vance nomination bet, but the market is liquid and 2028-dated.
$9,628 on No
Profitable serial politics trader
A highly experienced cross-market political bettor with 1,048 resolved bets and positive lifetime P&L is betting against Vance winning the 2028 GOP nomination.
- This bettor has a large track record: 62% wins across 1,048 resolved bets and $136K lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 195 events and 232 markets.
- Selling Yes at 34¢ converts to buying No at 66¢, a bet that Vance does not win the nomination.
$3,423 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Profitable whale re-enters NO
A high-volume wallet with $1.1M lifetime profit is re-entering No after previously putting over $4M into the same side, with modest supporting volume-spike and cross-market signals.
- This bettor is up $1.1M lifetime across 1,399 resolved trades, despite a modest 48% hit rate.
- They previously put over $4M into No on this market and are now buying No again at 65¢.
- Market activity is elevated, with a 13.4x volume spike versus its historical average.
$16,004 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%
88% cross-market political trader
A highly experienced cross-market political trader with an 88% resolved win rate is making a sizable bearish Vance nomination trade as part of a broader 5-market 2028 GOP positioning thesis.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades across more than 1,500 markets, with a long history of cross-market political positioning.
- They have $90K spread across 5 markets in this event, suggesting a broader 2028 GOP nomination thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- Selling Yes at 37¢ converts to buying No at 63¢, aligned with the market’s current bearish pricing on Vance.
$18,948 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$2,744
Proven political sharp
A highly profitable serial political trader with a 77% win rate and nearly $1.9M in profits is taking a fresh cross-market position on Vance by effectively buying Yes at 39¢.
- This bettor wins 77% of their trades and is up about $1.9M lifetime.
- They trade across 56 events and 66 markets, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
- This sale of No at 61¢ is effectively a buy of Yes at 39¢, a price that leaves meaningful upside if their view is right.
$1,063 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
New whale repeating big bets
A 2-day-old wallet has already made nearly $19k of repeated large political bets and is now buying J.D. Vance Yes at 42¢, which looks like fresh conviction rather than routine flow.
- A 2-day-old wallet has already triggered 4 large-bet alerts totaling about $19k
- This is a fresh $3.3k buy on Vance at 42¢, implying they see the nomination chances as meaningfully higher
- The trade is in a major, liquid political market, so repeated sizing from a brand-new wallet stands out more than a random punt
$3,304 on Yes
4-wallet No cluster
Four wallets piled into No within seconds, including one very new wallet and one wallet with a strong 24-of-26 hit rate, creating a coordinated directional signal on a major politics market.
- Four wallets bought No within 12 seconds, showing coordinated conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- One wallet is brand new and another has won 24 of 26 resolved bets, so this is not just random flow.
- They entered at 61¢ in a major political market, implying they think Vance is overpriced at 39% to win the nomination.
$4,827 on No
43-0 sharp bettor buying Yes
A proven high-performing wallet with a perfect 43-for-43 record just took a fresh bullish position on Vance via a $6k buy-equivalent, making this otherwise modest volume-spike alert worth surfacing.
- This bettor has won 43 of 43 resolved trades and is up about $2.56M lifetime
- They sold No at 62¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes at 38¢ near the current 37¢ market price
- The trade is small versus market liquidity, but the wallet's track record makes the signal worth watching
$6,009 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $2,314,506
- 0x1e1f...c855 — Yes, $331,698 (57% win rate)
- 0x94a4...6356 — Yes, $146,779 (100% win rate)
- 0x2225...24d1 — Yes, $120,000
- 0xc65e...1502 — Yes, $110,694
- 0xa771...162d — Yes, $102,137
- 0xcf19...6402 — Yes, $101,475 (56% win rate)
- 0x5a56...adab — Yes, $85,075 (70% win rate)
- 0xa7ce...6398 — Yes, $84,950
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $79,241 (48% win rate)
Related Theses
Newsom loses Democratic nomination
Covers 16 related markets
Vance loses GOP nomination
Covers 5 related markets
