Part of: Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
This Polymarket market tracks whether Israel and Iran will agree to a permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026. It resolves Yes only if an agreement clearly states that military hostilities have ended or will permanently cease; current smart money activity tracked by PolySpotter shows $3,778 in volume and recent signals buying No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,117.
Categories: Geopolitics, Lebanon, Iran Ceasefire, Israel, Iran, Israel x Iran, Hezbollah, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
82% winner buying No
Sharp cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $660k lifetime profit bought No at 66%, ahead of a move to 72%.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $660k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 56 events.
- Bought No at 66%, and the market has already moved to 72%.
$3,778 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
91% winner buying No
Sharp-wallet override: a 91% lifetime winner with positive P&L bought No at 77¢ despite only a modest standalone signal.
- This bettor has won 10 of 11 resolved bets and is up $609 lifetime.
- They bought $2.6k of No at 77¢, implying confidence the peace deal does not happen by July 2026.
- The market has moved 10 points toward Yes today, so this is a sharp bettor fading that move.
$2,566 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Profitable serial trader buys No
A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader bought $3.3k of No in a relatively small geopolitics market and the price has already moved their way.
- This bettor has 905 resolved trades and is up about $528k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.5M deployed across 203 markets.
- The $3.3k No buy was meaningful for this smaller market, and No has already moved from 73¢ to 76¢.
$3,264 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
82% winner buying No
Sharp cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $660k lifetime profit bought No at 66%, ahead of a move to 72%.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $660k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 56 events.
- Bought No at 66%, and the market has already moved to 72%.
$1,509 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0xc15b...38af — No, $10,000 (83% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — No, $7,441 (82% win rate)
- 0xfe49...7a4c — Yes, $5,337 (50% win rate)
- 0x8f42...b88f — No, $4,492 (58% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Yes, $3,516 (47% win rate)
- 0x7c3d...5c6b — No, $3,333 (48% win rate)
- 0x4728...6426 — Yes, $3,333 (75% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $2,500 (70% win rate)
- 0xb37a...f1b1 — Yes, $2,362 (54% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — Yes, $2,090 (64% win rate)
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