Part of: Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

This Polymarket market tracks whether Israel and Iran will agree to a permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026. It resolves Yes only if an agreement clearly states that military hostilities have ended or will permanently cease; current smart money activity tracked by PolySpotter shows $3,778 in volume and recent signals buying No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,117.

Categories: Geopolitics, Lebanon, Iran Ceasefire, Israel, Iran, Israel x Iran, Hezbollah, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

82% winner buying No

Sharp cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $660k lifetime profit bought No at 66%, ahead of a move to 72%.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $660k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 56 events.
  • Bought No at 66%, and the market has already moved to 72%.

$3,778 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

91% winner buying No

Sharp-wallet override: a 91% lifetime winner with positive P&L bought No at 77¢ despite only a modest standalone signal.

  • This bettor has won 10 of 11 resolved bets and is up $609 lifetime.
  • They bought $2.6k of No at 77¢, implying confidence the peace deal does not happen by July 2026.
  • The market has moved 10 points toward Yes today, so this is a sharp bettor fading that move.

$2,566 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Profitable serial trader buys No

A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader bought $3.3k of No in a relatively small geopolitics market and the price has already moved their way.

  • This bettor has 905 resolved trades and is up about $528k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.5M deployed across 203 markets.
  • The $3.3k No buy was meaningful for this smaller market, and No has already moved from 73¢ to 76¢.

$3,264 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%

82% winner buying No

Sharp cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $660k lifetime profit bought No at 66%, ahead of a move to 72%.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $660k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M deployed across 56 events.
  • Bought No at 66%, and the market has already moved to 72%.

$1,509 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc15b...38af No, $10,000 (83% win rate)
  2. 0xfc2f...10c7 No, $7,441 (82% win rate)
  3. 0xfe49...7a4c Yes, $5,337 (50% win rate)
  4. 0x8f42...b88f No, $4,492 (58% win rate)
  5. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $3,516 (47% win rate)
  6. 0x7c3d...5c6b No, $3,333 (48% win rate)
  7. 0x4728...6426 Yes, $3,333 (75% win rate)
  8. 0x6139...6b7a Yes, $2,500 (70% win rate)
  9. 0xb37a...f1b1 Yes, $2,362 (54% win rate)
  10. 0xe738...df65 Yes, $2,090 (64% win rate)

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No US-Iran meeting by June

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WTI stays between $90 and $105

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Oil rallies, capped below $140

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Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

45dIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?$11,117 tracked4 signalsGeopoliticsLebanonIran CeasefireIsraelIranIsrael x IranHezbollahPeace Deal
Yes
21¢
No
79¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
87¢
72¢
57¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

2h ago

$3,778 on No at 66¢

66¢79¢13¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

2h ago

$2,566 on No at 77¢

77¢79¢2¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

13h ago

$3,264 on No at 73¢

73¢79¢6¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

19h ago

$1,509 on No at 66¢

66¢79¢13¢

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