Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
43 signals across 2 markets · $267,393 tracked · resolves May 31, 2026
This event tracks the prediction market for whether Israel and Iran will agree to a permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026. Traders are pricing the chance of a lasting agreement that clearly ends military hostilities, while PolySpotter monitors smart-money activity such as a recent funded-cluster signal tied to an 80% winner.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- 80% winner in funded cluster
Surface because this is a proven 80% winner with positive lifetime P&L, backed by a large funded-wallet cluster signal on a plausible geopolitical thesis.
$1,050Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 12.0 - 82% winner buying No
Sharp cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $660k lifetime profit bought No at 66%, ahead of a move to 72%.
$3,651Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 11.0 - 82% winner buying No
Sharp cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and $660k lifetime profit bought No at 66%, ahead of a move to 72%.
$2,128Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 11.0 - Proven serial cross-market winner
A highly profitable 81% win-rate serial cross-market bettor bought Yes on a longshot geopolitical market at 12¢.
$2,673Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 10.0 - Profitable linked No buyer
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying No, with a linked wallet cluster adding about $20.6k total to the same thesis.
$10,482Wallet win rate: 58%Score: 8.0 - Profitable linked No buyer
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying No, with a linked wallet cluster adding about $20.6k total to the same thesis.
$10,643Wallet win rate: 58%Score: 8.0 - Profitable linked No buyer
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying No, with a linked wallet cluster adding about $20.6k total to the same thesis.
$11,648Wallet win rate: 58%Score: 8.0 - Four-wallet YES cluster
Four wallets, including profitable high-volume traders, bought the same long-shot Yes side during a 20x volume spike and recent upward price momentum.
$36,192Score: 6.2 - Profitable serial macro bettor
Sharp cross-market trader with an 82% resolved win rate and $512k lifetime profit bought Yes at 18¢ despite the market pricing it as unlikely.
$1,480Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 6.0 - Profitable serial macro bettor
Proven profitable cross-market trader with an 82% resolved-bet win rate is taking a small long-shot Yes position at 6¢ on a geopolitical market.
$1,152Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 6.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x359f52…17d4$38,452 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x44c1df…ebc1$32,774 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 58% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$29,218 · 2 markets · 12 alerts · 82% wins
- 0xbacd00…ab35$28,468 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 48% wins
- 0x000d25…758e$18,631 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 85% wins
- 0x08458f…6b6f$12,578 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 69% wins
- 0xe7cb6e…d447$11,367 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 70% wins
- 0x335592…a126$10,557 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 100% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$9,746 · 1 market · 1 alert · 63% wins
- 0x134a63…9e42$9,012 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
The live odds are determined by the Polymarket market for this event, where traders buy and sell positions on whether a qualifying permanent peace deal happens before the deadline.
What counts as a permanent peace deal in this market?
The market resolves Yes if Israel and Iran agree to a deal that explicitly says military hostilities have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language signaling a lasting end to hostilities. Temporary ceasefires or vague agreements generally would not qualify.
What is the smart money doing on this Israel-Iran peace deal market?
PolySpotter currently tracks $1,050 in smart-money activity across this event, including one recent signal described as an “80% winner in funded cluster,” which may indicate notable positioning by historically successful or connected wallets.
When does the Israel-Iran peace deal market resolve?
The event is tied to the child market asking whether a permanent peace deal is reached by June 30, 2026, with resolution based on whether qualifying evidence exists by the specified deadline.
Where can I track Israel-Iran peace deal prediction market activity?
You can use this PolySpotter event page to follow the related Polymarket odds, smart-money signals, and trading activity around whether Israel and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by the deadline.