Part of: Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether President Donald Trump, the U.S. government, or the U.S. military will publicly and officially announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has ended by 11:59 PM ET on May 22, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $2,129 in smart money across 1 signal, with recent alerts showing sharp interest on both Yes and No, including cluster buying No and a high-win-rate trader buying Yes.
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify). Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
20 smart money signals detected, totaling $278,395.
Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Middle East, Hormuz
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market bettor
A profitable 94-bet wallet with a strong track record is adding a $2.1k No bet as part of a broader 7-market Hormuz thesis.
- This bettor has won 74% of 94 resolved bets and is up $18.9k lifetime.
- They have placed $20.9k across 7 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 88¢ follows a sharp 16-point one-day move toward No.
$2,129 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
Profitable event specialist
Serial cross-market trader with a 66% resolved win rate and $129k profit is adding a No position as part of a $200k five-market Hormuz thesis.
- This bettor has won 66% of resolved trades and is up $129k lifetime.
- They are trading a broad Hormuz thesis across 5 related markets with about $200k positioned in this event.
- Entry at 79¢ on No aligns with the market drifting against Yes over the past day and week.
$5,812 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Sharp cluster buying No
Three wallets are buying No together, led by a highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 84% win rate and $418k P&L.
- A top wallet in this cluster wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $418k lifetime.
- Three wallets bought $12.7k of No at 77¢, all moving the same way.
- One trader has a long cross-market record: 41 events, 101 markets, and $1.5M total volume.
$12,662 on No
Proven cross-market sharp
Proven 84% winner with $418k profit is adding a fresh No position as part of a large cross-market thesis across the same event.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $418k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.5M deployed across 101 related markets.
- This $4.6k Buy No follows a closed Yes position, suggesting a fresh shift toward No at 77¢.
$4,620 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
Serial cross-market geopolitical bettor
Serial cross-market trader with a profitable 65% record is building a much larger event-wide position against the blockade being lifted, despite this individual trade being modest.
- This bettor wins 65% of resolved trades and is up $82k lifetime.
- They have built $185k in exposure across 4 related markets in this event.
- This trade is effectively buying No at 66¢, signaling they expect no official lifting announcement by the deadline.
$1,341 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
85% winner builds NO thesis
A highly profitable 85% win-rate wallet is taking a cross-market No position on a major geopolitical event, with a long history of successful event-based trading.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $415K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.4M deployed across 97 markets.
- They bought No at 59¢, and the market now offers a cheaper follow near 54¢.
$1,768 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
Profitable cross-market geopolitics bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a Yes position as part of a broader $141K thesis across four related Hormuz blockade markets.
- This bettor has traded 67 related event markets and is profitable, up about $61K across resolved bets.
- They have $141K positioned across 4 markets in this same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 14¢ is a long-shot Yes bet with large upside if the blockade is lifted by the deadline.
$3,457 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Serial cross-market bettor
Serial cross-market trader with a positive 64% record is building a broader $139k thesis across four related markets, though this individual buy is small versus market volume.
- This bettor wins 64% of resolved bets and is up about $61k lifetime.
- They have $139k positioned across 4 related markets in this event.
- Entry at 14¢ implies a high-upside bet on the blockade ending by the deadline.
$1,703 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
90% winner buying YES
A profitable 90% win-rate wallet is making a $44k equivalent BUY Yes position as part of a $330k cross-market thesis, alongside a major volume spike.
- This bettor has won 90% of resolved bets and is up about $84.7k lifetime.
- They are building a broader thesis across 7 related markets, with $330k deployed in the same event.
- Selling No is equivalent to buying Yes around 21¢, a contrarian position versus the market’s 18% odds.
$44,470 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Profitable cross-market NO bettor
Profitable repeat wallet is expressing a broader cross-market Hormuz thesis, with $134.5k across related markets and this trade already moving in its favor.
- This bettor is up $58.7k lifetime and has been flagged 29 times for notable bets.
- They have $134.5k positioned across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- This trade effectively backs No at 79¢, and Yes has already fallen from 21¢ to 18¢ since entry.
$1,244 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Top Holders
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $30,405 (64% win rate)
- 0xf9c1...39e2 — No, $25,000 (100% win rate)
- 0x9d73...216b — Yes, $19,228 (75% win rate)
- 0x134a...9e42 — Yes, $17,652 (88% win rate)
- 0x3a8a...7699 — Yes, $15,000 (89% win rate)
- 0xbf4d...33ed — No, $13,567 (74% win rate)
- 0x0562...9d66 — Yes, $10,400 (41% win rate)
- 0x4488...e319 — Yes, $10,000 (54% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $7,962 (47% win rate)
- 0xc040...beac — Yes, $7,570 (47% win rate)
