Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
493 signals across 13 markets · $2,294,909 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether President Trump, the U.S. government, or the U.S. military officially announces the end of the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by a series of deadlines from April 15 through June 30, 2026. Traders are pricing multiple timelines for a possible announcement, with PolySpotter tracking over $1.15M in smart-money activity and 150 signals across the related markets. Recent alerts show sharp wallets active on both sides, including clusters buying No and a separate sharp cluster buying Yes.
Markets (13)
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?183 signals · $789,436 tracked
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?103 signals · $358,697 tracked
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?23 signals · $283,605 tracked
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?37 signals · $249,000 tracked
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?38 signals · $236,006 tracked
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?53 signals · $218,752 tracked
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?28 signals · $73,648 tracked
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?8 signals · $35,986 tracked
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?11 signals · $30,086 tracked
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026?4 signals · $9,289 tracked
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?2 signals · $5,408 tracked
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?2 signals · $3,241 tracked
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?1 signal · $1,756 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 82% winner joins No cluster
Coordinated No-side flow from 7 wallets includes a highly profitable 82% winner and multiple serial cross-market traders building a broader Hormuz thesis.
$31,915Score: 39.3 - Profitable wallets pile into Yes
Seven wallets are collectively buying Yes with several profitable track records, cross-market positioning, and a major volume/price surge behind the move.
$22,557Score: 34.0 - Sharp cluster buying No
Strong No-side cluster with $27k of coordinated flow, sharp cross-market bettors, and a proven 82% wallet up $535k pushing the market sharply toward No.
$26,951Score: 33.6 - Sharp cluster buying No
Three wallets are buying No together, led by a highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 84% win rate and $418k P&L.
$12,662Score: 22.1 - 82% winner joining Yes cluster
Sharp 82% lifetime wallet with strong cross-market history bought Yes, alongside 8-wallet same-direction flow and a major volume spike.
$3,959Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 20.7 - Sharp bettor flips to Yes
Sharp 82% winning wallet with $539k lifetime profit flipped from a large prior No position into Yes amid heavy one-sided flow and a major volume spike.
$2,160Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 20.7 - 18-wallet cluster with sharp lead
High-conviction Yes flow from a linked-wallet cluster, led by a 96% winning wallet, coincided with a major volume spike and sharp price move.
$17,376Score: 20.2 - 96% winner fading surge
A small contrarian No cluster is worth surfacing because it includes a 96% historical winner fading a sharp Yes price surge in a high-volume geopolitical market.
$4,034Score: 19.6 - 17-wallet cluster buying Yes
High-score coordinated flow: a 17-wallet funded cluster is buying Yes amid a major volume spike and sharp price move higher.
$4,000Wallet win rate: 55%Score: 19.4 - 82% winner backs NO
Sharp 82% winner with $535k lifetime profit is effectively buying No, alongside 10-wallet one-sided No flow and heavy cross-market positioning on the same event.
$1,032Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 17.8
Top wallets in this event
- 0xf39651…ed0d$546,332 · 4 markets · 39 alerts · 92% wins
- 0xa022ba…77f8$263,085 · 4 markets · 38 alerts · 70% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$155,257 · 9 markets · 77 alerts · 82% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$107,368 · 4 markets · 31 alerts · 63% wins
- 0x612b36…6fdd$65,854 · 3 markets · 10 alerts · 75% wins
- 0x0f0223…5bfb$51,611 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 100% wins
- 0xeed588…1a33$46,097 · 1 market · 1 alert · 93% wins
- 0xbf4d20…33ed$43,461 · 5 markets · 18 alerts · 79% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$38,116 · 5 markets · 13 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x5188fa…c804$34,500 · 4 markets · 10 alerts · 82% wins
FAQs
What are the Trump Hormuz blockade lifted odds on Polymarket?
The odds reflect how traders are pricing the chance that an official U.S. announcement ends the Strait of Hormuz blockade by each listed deadline. This event includes multiple date-based markets, so the odds can differ for April, May, and June resolution windows.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked more than $1.15M in smart-money volume and 150 signals across the event. Recent alerts include multiple sharp-wallet clusters buying No, as well as a sharp cluster buying Yes, suggesting active disagreement over the timing of any official announcement.
Which outcomes are being traded?
Traders are betting on whether the blockade is officially announced as lifted by April 15, April 19, April 23, April 30, May 15, May 22, May 31, or June 30, 2026.
When does this Polymarket event resolve?
The latest child market in the event resolves by June 30, 2026, though earlier deadline markets can effectively be decided as their specific dates pass or if an official qualifying announcement is made.
What counts as a Yes outcome?
A Yes outcome requires a public and official announcement from President Trump, the U.S. government, or the U.S. military that the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has ended by the relevant market’s deadline.