What is the Starmer out by December 31, 2026 prediction market about?

This market covers whether Keir Starmer stops being UK Prime Minister for any period of time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A confirmed resignation or removal announcement before the deadline also counts for a “Yes” outcome.

When does the Keir Starmer Polymarket resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. It may resolve earlier to “Yes” if an official announcement says Starmer will resign or be removed, even if the departure takes effect later.

What would make this market resolve to Yes?

It resolves “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point during the market window, or if his resignation/removal is officially announced before the market end date.

What would make this market resolve to No?

It resolves “No” if Keir Starmer remains Prime Minister throughout the covered period and no qualifying resignation or removal announcement is made before the deadline.

How much smart money is tracked on this Starmer market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $7,475 in smart money activity on this market, including signals from high win-rate political bettors and profitable politics-focused traders.

Part of: Starmer out by...?

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Keir Starmer will cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if he resigns, is removed, or an official resignation/removal announcement is made before the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $7,475 in smart money activity and 1 signal on this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $23,721.

Categories: Starmer, UK, keir, Grooming Gangs, Politics, World, uk

Notable Trades

93% win-rate political trader

A proven 93% winner with extensive cross-market history bought $7.5k of Yes amid strong upward momentum in a liquid UK politics market.

This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $40.5k lifetime.
They have traded across 27 events and 42 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
Yes has jumped 20 points in 24 hours, and this $7.5k buy adds to the momentum.

$7,475 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with $900k lifetime P&L is re-entering Yes into strong momentum on a political market.

This bettor is up $900k across 910 resolved bets, with a long record of trading political and event-linked markets.
They have traded 111 markets across 51 events, suggesting an established cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
They bought Yes at 85¢ as the market moved up 16 points in 24 hours.

$1,758 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%

Profitable politics regular

A profitable high-sample political bettor is buying Yes amid strong recent momentum, despite the alert being only a modest two-market correlated signal.

This bettor has a large track record: 1,100 resolved bets, 68% wins, and about $46.9K lifetime profit.
They bought Yes at 80¢ as the market has moved sharply, up 9 points today and 11 points this week.
The wallet has also traded another related market, suggesting a broader view on Starmer leaving office.

$1,586 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable serial politics trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with $903k lifetime P&L is buying Yes after strong recent momentum, despite only a modest single signal.

This bettor is up $903k lifetime across 910 resolved markets.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 50 events and 109 markets.
They bought Yes at 81¢ after the market moved 11 points in the past day.

$3,970 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

LLM evaluation inconclusive

$5,473 | Wallet win rate: 60%

95% win-rate political bettor

A serial cross-market trader with a 95% win rate bought No at 33¢ in a major UK politics market, making this a strong copy-trade signal despite the modest size.

This bettor wins 95% of 1,498 resolved trades and is up $93.5k lifetime
They trade across related event markets at scale: 89 events, 603 markets, and $224k tracked in this pattern
Bought No at 33¢ while the market now implies 32¢, showing a clear bearish view on Starmer leaving office

$1,323 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

74% win-rate political bettor

A high-volume political trader with a 74% win rate is taking the Yes side here via a sell of No, making this worth tracking despite the modest size and single-signal alert.

This bettor has won 706 of 958 resolved markets and is up $122k overall.
They effectively bought Yes at 53¢ by selling No, a meaningful stance in a near-even political market.
This wallet has traded 210 related markets across 126 events, suggesting a repeatable event-trading edge.

$2,136 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%