Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
This prediction market tracks whether representatives of the United States and Iran will hold an official diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if authorized officials from both governments meet for negotiation or diplomacy on US-Iran relations, and “No” otherwise. Smart money activity is currently limited, with $1,160 tracked across 1 signal, including recent alerts showing both NO cluster buying and profitable diplomacy bettors buying Yes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
44 smart money signals detected, totaling $182,027.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market Iran bettor
A profitable wallet is expressing a broader US-Iran thesis across 8 related markets and sold Yes here after a sharp move lower.
- This bettor is up $96K lifetime across 439 resolved markets.
- They have placed nearly $25K across 8 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This trade backs No at an effective 71¢ after Yes fell 16.5 points in the last day.
$1,160 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%
Profitable 76% winner buying dip
Sharp-wallet override: a profitable 76% winner is buying Yes after a sharp price drop, despite only a modest win-rate signal.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $75.6K lifetime.
- They bought $3K of Yes at 29¢ after the market fell 18% in a day.
- Entry at 29¢ implies they see this as a ~3.4x payout if a meeting happens.
$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable cross-market whale
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is making a $46k No bet while positioning across five related US-Iran markets.
- This bettor is up $1.6M lifetime across 908 resolved markets.
- They have $166k spread across 5 related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
- This $46k No buy aligns with momentum: Yes is down 17 points over the last day.
$45,966 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable cross-market trader
Experienced, profitable cross-market trader is taking the Yes side across a related US-Iran event set, though the position size is modest in a liquid market.
- This bettor has 936 resolved bets and is up $87,512 lifetime.
- They have $12,961 positioned across 4 related markets in this event.
- Selling No at 70¢ equals buying Yes at 30¢ after Yes dropped 14.5% in a day.
$1,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%
Sharp cross-market bettor
Sharp wallet with an 86% resolved win rate is adding a No position as part of a broader 7-market US-Iran thesis despite recent price movement.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $16,023 lifetime.
- They have built a $26,788 position across 7 related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
- Buying No at 71¢ follows a 14-point daily drop in Yes odds, backing the recent market move.
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Sharp cross-market bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with an 86% resolved win rate is extending a cross-market US-Iran thesis by buying No after a sharp price move toward No.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $32.7K lifetime.
- They have positioned across 4 related markets with $26K total exposure, suggesting a developed US-Iran thesis.
- They bought No at 71¢ as the market moved 16 points toward No in the past day.
$2,002 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable cross-market diplomat bear
A large, seasoned profitable wallet is expressing a cross-market US-Iran thesis by buying No after previously closing a Yes position, amid a sharp move lower in Yes odds.
- This seasoned bettor has 642 resolved trades and is up about $42K lifetime.
- They are active across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They switched from a closed Yes position into No as Yes odds fell nearly 20 points over the past day.
$1,080 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable cross-market whale
Highly profitable cross-market trader is buying No after positioning across 5 related US-Iran markets, despite the market already moving sharply toward No.
- This bettor is up $1.63M lifetime across 908 resolved bets.
- They have placed $133K across 5 related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis.
- Buying No at 71¢ after a 19.5-point one-day move shows they still see room for this outcome to rise.
$6,971 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.6M lifetime P&L is adding a fresh No position amid a major volume spike across related US-Iran markets.
- This bettor has made $1.6M lifetime and wins 64% of resolved trades across 908 markets.
- They are active across 5 related markets with $128K positioned, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
- Market volume spiked 142x versus normal while price has moved sharply toward No over the past day.
$3,066 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a cross-market US-Iran thesis, buying No after already closing a prior No position, though the individual trade size is modest relative to market volume.
- This bettor is up $1.63M lifetime across $36.5M traded, with 908 resolved bets.
- They are active across 5 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader diplomatic-outcome thesis.
- Buying No at 66¢ goes with recent market momentum, with Yes down 13 points in the last day.
$1,165 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $211,588 (70% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $112,855 (64% win rate)
- 0x02d8...0c91 — Yes, $60,034 (84% win rate)
- 0x61e7...6e8b — No, $29,313 (54% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — No, $25,136 (84% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — No, $23,506 (66% win rate)
- 0xecaa...77a9 — No, $23,461 (68% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $22,572 (48% win rate)
- 0xc658...b784 — Yes, $20,030 (68% win rate)
- 0x1681...b1c7 — Yes, $17,050 (76% win rate)
