Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $91,288.
Notable Trades
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
An 88% win-rate serial cross-market trader just put $10k into No on a major geopolitics market, a pattern worth tracking despite the rich 87¢ entry.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades across 101 markets and has traded nearly $795k
- They make repeated event-level bets across 77 events, which suggests a consistent macro thesis process
- They bought No at 87¢, pricing this as a high-probability outcome in a major news-driven market
$10,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
A proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate sold Yes at 19¢ on this Iran de-escalation market, extending a broader multi-market thesis across the same event.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved markets and has tracked this event across 122 markets.
- They sold Yes at 19¢, which is effectively a bet on No at an implied 81% chance.
- The trader has put nearly $13k across 3 related markets in this event, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off trade.
$5,711 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
A 7-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed very large bets across the platform and just sold No at 81¢ on a major geopolitics market, signaling fresh high-conviction positioning rather than routine trading.
- This 7-day-old wallet has already triggered 10 large-bet alerts with about $413k flagged total
- They sold No at 81¢, which is effectively a bet on Yes around 19¢ before the market moved to 26¢
- The trade is large at $53k, but still in a liquid geopolitics market with nearly $345k in 24-hour volume
$53,117 on Yes
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
A 12-wallet linked cluster is deploying meaningful capital on NO in a major geopolitics market, and this wallet entered with a concentrated $22.5k buy.
- 12 linked wallets funded by the same address have been active together, a strong sign of coordinated conviction
- This wallet put $22.5k on NO in a major geopolitics market with deep enough liquidity to take the bet seriously
- The trade entered at 83¢, showing a high-confidence view that no official end-of-operations announcement will come by March 31
$22,460 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $320,367 (72% win rate)
- 0x27e5...5955 — No, $107,758
- 0xbacd...ab35 — No, $62,264 (49% win rate)
- 0x7d8c...0b5c — No, $42,581
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $40,561 (46% win rate)
- 0xdbad...9c95 — No, $40,028
- 0xf396...ed0d — No, $33,439
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $33,384 (88% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $28,405 (86% win rate)
- 0x85b1...0e45 — No, $27,143 (100% win rate)