Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

33 smart money signals detected, totaling $190,764.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor adds to No

A proven bettor with an 85% win rate and substantial edge is adding to an existing No position at 82%.

  • This bettor wins 85% of 147 resolved trades and is up $9,468 overall.
  • They are adding $1,200 to an existing No position, showing increased conviction that the blockade will remain.
  • No is priced at 82%, while the market has fallen 19 percentage points over the past week.

$1,144 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Serial event trader scaling into No

A repeat cross-market bettor is adding nearly $10,000 to an existing No position while maintaining a broad $47,435 event-level thesis.

  • This bettor has positioned across six related markets, with $47,435 traded and activity observed across five prior runs.
  • The new $9,967 purchase adds to an existing $15,993 No position, signaling increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
  • No has fallen 21% over the past week to 62¢, broadly supporting the trader’s direction, though the 73% win rate comes from only 11 resolved bets.

$2,140 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Serial event trader scales into No

A profitable, highly active cross-market trader added $28.7K to an existing No position while expressing the same view across seven markets in this event.

  • This bettor has resolved 499 trades, a 66% win rate, and $241K in lifetime profit.
  • They added $28,659 to No at 85¢, bringing their existing investment in the market to roughly $67K.
  • The wallet has positioned across 7 markets in this event and 41 markets across 29 events, indicating a developed cross-market thesis rather than an isolated bet.

$28,659 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

Serial event trader scaling into No

A repeat cross-market bettor is adding nearly $10,000 to an existing No position while maintaining a broad $47,435 event-level thesis.

  • This bettor has positioned across six related markets, with $47,435 traded and activity observed across five prior runs.
  • The new $9,967 purchase adds to an existing $15,993 No position, signaling increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
  • No has fallen 21% over the past week to 62¢, broadly supporting the trader’s direction, though the 73% win rate comes from only 11 resolved bets.

$4,675 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

82% bettor backs No

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate is exiting Yes at 31%, implying a strong No position at roughly 69%.

  • This bettor wins 82% of 1,530 resolved positions and is up $807,000.
  • The trade is part of activity across 54 events and 66 markets, providing strong evidence beyond a single wager.
  • Selling Yes at 31¢ converts to a No position around 69¢ while the market currently prices No at 68%.

$1,001 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Serial event trader scaling into No

A repeat cross-market bettor is adding nearly $10,000 to an existing No position while maintaining a broad $47,435 event-level thesis.

  • This bettor has positioned across six related markets, with $47,435 traded and activity observed across five prior runs.
  • The new $9,967 purchase adds to an existing $15,993 No position, signaling increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
  • No has fallen 21% over the past week to 62¢, broadly supporting the trader’s direction, though the 73% win rate comes from only 11 resolved bets.

$6,463 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Funded cluster scaling into No

A funded seven-wallet cluster and sharp pre-event volume spike support this trader's substantial No position, though the wallet is adding to an existing bet rather than opening a fresh one.

  • Seven linked wallets share a funder and have put $7,659 behind the same direction.
  • Trading surged to 92.6 times its historical average, while this wallet added $6,560 to No.
  • The wallet is up $132,611 across 217 resolved markets, though its 67% win rate is moderate and it already held No at 82¢.

$6,560 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

82% bettor backs No

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate is exiting Yes at 31%, implying a strong No position at roughly 69%.

  • This bettor wins 82% of 1,530 resolved positions and is up $807,000.
  • The trade is part of activity across 54 events and 66 markets, providing strong evidence beyond a single wager.
  • Selling Yes at 31¢ converts to a No position around 69¢ while the market currently prices No at 68%.

$1,080 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Sharp bettor adds to No

A proven bettor with an 85% win rate and substantial edge is adding to an existing No position at 82%.

  • This bettor wins 85% of 147 resolved trades and is up $9,468 overall.
  • They are adding $1,200 to an existing No position, showing increased conviction that the blockade will remain.
  • No is priced at 82%, while the market has fallen 19 percentage points over the past week.

$1,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

94% winner scaling into No

A highly profitable bettor with a 94% win rate is adding $9.3K to an existing No position while taking the same view across eight related markets.

  • This bettor has won 263 of 279 resolved trades, with $239K in lifetime profit and a meaningful edge over the odds paid.
  • They added $9,327 to an existing No position and have committed over $21K to this outcome.
  • The wallet is taking the same position across eight markets in this event, representing $111,681 of coordinated conviction.

$5,802 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc4c8...cabb — Yes, $247,097 (25% win rate)
  2. 0x162f...798d — Yes, $74,271 (65% win rate)
  3. 0x52f8...dbbc — Yes, $36,369
  4. 0x3c59...1766 — Yes, $35,024 (73% win rate)
  5. 0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $33,888 (71% win rate)
  6. 0x551e...b0e0 — Yes, $32,828 (72% win rate)
  7. 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $26,383 (76% win rate)
  8. 0x134a...9e42 — Yes, $25,695 (85% win rate)
  9. 0x1685...cb4e — Yes, $24,759
  10. 0xd109...6fa0 — Yes, $23,456 (82% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 5 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Someone else wins Peru presidency

Covers 3 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

World Cup favorites prevail

Covers 4 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?$190,764 tracked33 signalsIranTrumpBlockadePoliticsshippingPeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Notable Trades

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-09-12 00:28 UTC

$1,144 on No at 82¢

82¢→100¢↑18¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-09-11 08:56 UTC

$2,140 on No at 62¢

62¢→100¢↑38¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-09-08 07:10 UTC

$28,659 on No at 85¢

85¢→100¢↑15¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-09-07 02:58 UTC

$4,675 on No at 62¢

62¢→100¢↑38¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-09-05 15:18 UTC

$1,001 on No at 69¢

69¢→100¢↑31¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-09-05 12:00 UTC

$6,463 on No at 62¢

62¢→100¢↑38¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-09-05 12:00 UTC

$6,560 on No at 82¢

82¢→100¢↑18¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-09-05 12:00 UTC

$1,080 on No at 69¢

69¢→100¢↑31¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-09-02 16:52 UTC

$1,200 on No at 82¢

82¢→100¢↑18¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-09-02 16:02 UTC

$5,802 on No at 79¢

79¢→100¢↑21¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-09-01 09:55 UTC

$6,107 on No at 79¢

79¢→100¢↑21¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-09-01 04:41 UTC

$15,692 on No at 79¢

79¢→100¢↑21¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-31 16:10 UTC

$1,330 on No at 69¢

69¢→100¢↑31¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-31 11:54 UTC

$5,710 on No at 62¢

62¢→100¢↑38¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-31 05:37 UTC

$9,327 on No at 79¢

79¢→100¢↑21¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-30 22:47 UTC

$8,411 on No at 83¢

83¢→100¢↑17¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-30 21:45 UTC

$1,160 on No at 69¢

69¢→100¢↑31¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-30 10:20 UTC

$2,642 on No at 62¢

62¢→100¢↑38¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-26 09:51 UTC

$6,000 on No at 68¢

68¢→100¢↑32¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-25 21:52 UTC

$1,162 on No at 40¢

40¢→100¢↑60¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-25 14:48 UTC

$1,029 on No at 69¢

69¢→100¢↑31¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-24 17:37 UTC

$1,050 on No at 68¢

68¢→100¢↑32¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-24 17:03 UTC

$1,068 on No at 62¢

62¢→100¢↑38¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-24 00:59 UTC

$1,417 on No at 69¢

69¢→100¢↑31¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-22 17:42 UTC

$6,132 on No at 62¢

62¢→100¢↑38¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-20 16:50 UTC

$6,793 on No at 62¢

62¢→100¢↑38¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-20 12:53 UTC

$1,063 on No at 62¢

62¢→100¢↑38¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-09-07 09:00 UTC

$8,862 on No at 83¢

83¢→100¢↑17¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-18 19:16 UTC

$2,455 on No at 40¢

40¢→100¢↑60¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-17 18:32 UTC

$9,967 on No at 62¢

62¢→100¢↑38¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-13 16:29 UTC

$2,772 on No at 40¢

40¢→100¢↑60¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-12 11:00 UTC

$12,504 on Yes at 60¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-09 17:17 UTC

$19,388 on No at 70¢

70¢→100¢↑30¢

Related Theses

Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 5 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 12 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0x8c66e trades 5 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 8 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Someone else wins Peru presidency
Wallet_0xc7e53 trades 3 related markets
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino …Will Keiko Fujimori win the 20…Will Rafael López Aliaga win t…
Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 13 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
World Cup favorites prevail
Wallet_0x9c987 trades 4 related markets
Will England win the 2026 FIFA…Will France win the 2026 FIFA …Will Argentina win the 2026 FI…
Hormuz blockade persists
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 9 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…