Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the U.S. government will officially announce the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of its naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves Yes only after a qualifying public announcement from the U.S. government or an authorized representative; view the live Yes/No odds and smart money activity on PolySpotter.

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $66,520.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Serial event trader scaling into No

A repeat cross-market bettor is adding nearly $10,000 to an existing No position while maintaining a broad $47,435 event-level thesis.

  • This bettor has positioned across six related markets, with $47,435 traded and activity observed across five prior runs.
  • The new $9,967 purchase adds to an existing $15,993 No position, signaling increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
  • No has fallen 21% over the past week to 62¢, broadly supporting the trader’s direction, though the 73% win rate comes from only 11 resolved bets.

$6,132 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Serial event trader scaling into No

A repeat cross-market bettor is adding nearly $10,000 to an existing No position while maintaining a broad $47,435 event-level thesis.

  • This bettor has positioned across six related markets, with $47,435 traded and activity observed across five prior runs.
  • The new $9,967 purchase adds to an existing $15,993 No position, signaling increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
  • No has fallen 21% over the past week to 62¢, broadly supporting the trader’s direction, though the 73% win rate comes from only 11 resolved bets.

$6,793 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Serial event trader scaling into No

A repeat cross-market bettor is adding nearly $10,000 to an existing No position while maintaining a broad $47,435 event-level thesis.

  • This bettor has positioned across six related markets, with $47,435 traded and activity observed across five prior runs.
  • The new $9,967 purchase adds to an existing $15,993 No position, signaling increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
  • No has fallen 21% over the past week to 62¢, broadly supporting the trader’s direction, though the 73% win rate comes from only 11 resolved bets.

$1,063 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Serial 80% bettor backs No

Three wallets concentrated $5,446 into No, including a serial cross-market trader with an 80% win rate and substantial prior No positions.

  • A serial cross-market bettor with an 80% win rate has joined the No position.
  • Three wallets bought No for $5,446 as volume spiked to 38 times its historical average.
  • The trade entered around 65–67¢, with No currently near 67¢ and meaningful prior positions reinforcing the direction.

$5,446 on No

Proven serial trader buys No

A highly experienced, profitable serial cross-market bettor is buying No at 40¢ with a meaningful historical edge and $30,299 spread across four markets in the event.

  • This bettor wins 76% of 349 resolved trades and is up $917,618 lifetime.
  • The wallet is positioning across four markets in this event, with $30,299 committed and a 76% historical win rate.
  • No is being bought at 40¢, while the market is near evenly split and has recently moved 26 points lower over the week.

$2,455 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Serial event trader scaling into No

A repeat cross-market bettor is adding nearly $10,000 to an existing No position while maintaining a broad $47,435 event-level thesis.

  • This bettor has positioned across six related markets, with $47,435 traded and activity observed across five prior runs.
  • The new $9,967 purchase adds to an existing $15,993 No position, signaling increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
  • No has fallen 21% over the past week to 62¢, broadly supporting the trader’s direction, though the 73% win rate comes from only 11 resolved bets.

$9,967 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Proven serial trader buys No

A highly experienced, profitable serial cross-market bettor is buying No at 40¢ with a meaningful historical edge and $30,299 spread across four markets in the event.

  • This bettor wins 76% of 349 resolved trades and is up $917,618 lifetime.
  • The wallet is positioning across four markets in this event, with $30,299 committed and a 76% historical win rate.
  • No is being bought at 40¢, while the market is near evenly split and has recently moved 26 points lower over the week.

$2,772 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Linked cluster backs Yes

Seven wallets, including a linked two-wallet funder group and strong serial cross-market traders, are aligned on Yes with $12.5K of concentrated exposure.

  • Seven wallets committed $12,504 to Yes, with two wallets sharing a funder and all signaling the same direction.
  • The cluster includes serial cross-market traders with reported 73% and 78% win rates across substantial trading histories.
  • Yes has risen 7.5% in one day, while several traders are adding or maintaining positions despite the market remaining months from resolution.

$12,504 on Yes

85% win-rate serial bettor

An established serial cross-market bettor with an 85% win rate made a concentrated roughly $19.4K bet on No while trading in a relatively quiet market.

  • This bettor has won 85% of 47 resolved trades and is up $136,564 overall.
  • They committed about $19,388 to No across three trades and already held a $7,000 No position.
  • The bet represents a strong view that the blockade will still be active by September 30, despite No currently trading near 32¢.

$19,388 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9e72...99c4 No, $63,809 (69% win rate)
  2. 0x162f...798d Yes, $35,079 (67% win rate)
  3. 0x3c59...1766 Yes, $32,843 (73% win rate)
  4. 0xbf4d...33ed No, $22,003 (80% win rate)
  5. 0x52f8...dbbc Yes, $17,832
  6. 0x6964...ef53 No, $17,504 (82% win rate)
  7. 0xd109...6fa0 Yes, $17,456 (80% win rate)
  8. 0xb100...6461 Yes, $16,936 (61% win rate)
  9. 0x551e...b0e0 No, $15,725 (71% win rate)
  10. 0x8afa...adb6 No, $15,000 (97% win rate)

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 5 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

37dUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?$66,520 tracked9 signalsIranTrumpBlockadePoliticsshippingPeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran
Yes
36¢
No
65¢

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Price History — “No
77¢
67¢
57¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

1d ago

$6,132 on No at 62¢

62¢65¢3¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

3d ago

$6,793 on No at 62¢

62¢65¢3¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

3d ago

$1,063 on No at 62¢

62¢65¢3¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

18h ago

$5,446 on No at 67¢

67¢65¢2¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

5d ago

$2,455 on No at 40¢

40¢65¢25¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

6d ago

$9,967 on No at 62¢

62¢65¢3¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

10d ago

$2,772 on No at 40¢

40¢65¢25¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

11d ago

$12,504 on Yes at 60¢

60¢36¢24¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

14d ago

$19,388 on No at 70¢

70¢65¢5¢

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 16 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0x8c66e trades 5 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 8 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Hormuz blockade persists
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 9 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 5 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 12 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 13 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Crude oil market arbitrage
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…