Part of: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
This Polymarket market asks whether the US-Iran ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026. It resolves No if the United States initiates a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iran by the deadline; otherwise, it resolves Yes. Current odds were not included in the supplied metadata; PolySpotter reports $3,303 in tracked smart money and one signal.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,352.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Israel, Military, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Israel x Iran, Military Actions, Military Strikes
Notable Trades
Serial event trader, five-market thesis
Worth noting for its repeated $32,312 positioning across five markets in the same event, though the trader’s 67% win rate does not clearly beat their typical entry prices and the trades show mixed pricing.
- The trader has positioned across five markets in this event, totaling $32,312 across current and prior runs.
- They have a 67% win rate and are up $304,142 lifetime, but their average winning entry price is 73%, so the track record does not clearly show an odds-adjusted edge.
- The larger trade sells No at 70¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 30¢; another Yes purchase at 89¢ makes the execution picture mixed.
$5,702 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Profitable serial event trader
A consistently profitable serial cross-market trader is positioning across four markets in the same Iran event, selling No here at 70¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 30¢.
- This bettor is up $304,142 across 562 resolved trades and has traded 38 events.
- The wallet has positioned across four markets tied to this event, with three markets flagged in earlier runs.
- The trade converts to buying Yes at 30¢, close to the current 28–29¢ market price.
$4,347 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Seven-wallet linked cluster
A seven-wallet shared-funder cluster and an experienced trader make this notable, though the No sale may be closing an existing position rather than opening a fresh Yes bet.
- Seven wallets share a funder, and the cluster has appeared across prior scans.
- The trader has 248 resolved bets and is up $132,776, but this No sale may be profit-taking rather than a new Yes position.
$3,303 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Top Holders
- 0xfb59...83f9 — Yes, $26,244 (61% win rate)
- 0xd104...acef — No, $25,876 (88% win rate)
- 0x09cc...421a — Yes, $20,459 (72% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — Yes, $18,799 (65% win rate)
- 0xcb4c...6d64 — Yes, $15,625 (34% win rate)
- 0xe700...7005 — No, $14,615 (49% win rate)
- 0xc550...272d — No, $12,310 (75% win rate)
- 0xc173...20f5 — Yes, $10,601
- 0x2106...4dea — No, $10,270 (13% win rate)
- 0xb1ea...3d00 — No, $10,170 (50% win rate)
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