Part of: Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
This prediction market tracks whether President Trump, the U.S. government, or the U.S. military will publicly and officially announce that the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has ended by May 15, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $3,000 in smart money across 1 signal, with recent sharp activity leaning toward the No side.
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify). Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
38 smart money signals detected, totaling $236,006.
Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Middle East, Hormuz
Notable Trades
92% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet with a 92% historical win rate and strong edge is buying Yes on a geopolitics market, with supporting cross-market positioning and recent price momentum.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $35.5K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 18¢ while the market has moved to 20¢, suggesting early momentum.
- They have $6.1K positioned across related markets in the same event.
$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Cross-market trader up $141K
Profitable wallet is building a cross-market No thesis on the Hormuz blockade event, with $10k–$20k deployed across related markets and recent price momentum supporting the direction.
- This bettor is up about $141K lifetime and is positioning across 3 related markets.
- They have deployed roughly $10K–$20K on the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 87¢ lines up with the market’s recent move, with Yes down 7 points over the last day.
$2,156 on No | Wallet win rate: 23%
4-wallet event thesis
Four wallets are aligned on Yes with $16.3k in fresh exposure, reinforced by cross-market positioning across the same event and an entry now available below their average price.
- Four wallets put $16.3k on Yes, including $13.4k of No sales that convert to buying Yes.
- Several of these wallets are trading across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader event-level thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Their average effective Yes entry is about 37¢, while the market is now around 28¢.
$16,313 on Yes
Repeat bettor buying NO
Repeat cross-market bettor is adding a $23.8k No position as part of a broader $141.5k thesis across four related Hormuz markets, with a profitable 64% resolved record.
- This bettor is profitable across 39 resolved markets, with a 64% hit rate and $75k in gains.
- They have put $141.5k across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis on the Hormuz blockade timeline.
- They bought $23.8k of No at an average 72¢, and the market has already moved toward them near 78¢.
$23,792 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Serial cross-market trader fading rally
Serial cross-market trader with a 64% resolved win rate is fading the Yes rally by effectively buying No, though the signal is moderated by prior position activity.
- This bettor has traded 72 markets across 39 events with a 64% resolved win rate.
- They have put $138.9K across 4 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Selling Yes at 25¢ is equivalent to buying No at 75¢ after Yes jumped 17.5% in a day.
$7,493 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with 637 resolved bets is buying No on a high-volume geopolitical market after a sharp Yes rally.
- This bettor has won 61% of 637 resolved bets and is up $212K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 235 markets and $1.3M in tracked volume.
- Buying No at 74¢ fades a sharp Yes move of +17.5% today.
$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
74% winner cross-market thesis
Moderately interesting cross-market thesis from a profitable 74% winner adding Yes exposure after a sharp 1-day price move, though size is modest in a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up $19K lifetime.
- They have put $13.8K across 5 related markets in the same event.
- Selling No at 70¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 30¢ after Yes jumped 21 points today.
$1,440 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
Profitable cross-market trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes on a geopolitical market amid a major volume spike and sharp 1-day price move.
- This bettor has won 66% of 1,039 resolved bets and is up $286K lifetime.
- They have put $20.7K across 3 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Market activity is surging, with volume 19x above normal and Yes up 28 points in the past day.
$6,677 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Serial cross-market No bettor
Serial cross-market trader with a profitable 64% resolved record is leaning No across a major geopolitical event, though this specific trade is modest relative to market volume.
- This bettor has traded 38 events and is up about $70K with a 64% record on resolved bets.
- They have placed $131K across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis on this event.
- Selling Yes at 35¢ is equivalent to buying No at 65¢, while No is currently around 60¢.
$1,049 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
96% serial cross-market bettor
A highly proven serial cross-market bettor with a 96% resolved win rate is adding a No position in a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 501 of 522 resolved bets and is up $21.5K lifetime.
- They repeatedly trade across related markets, covering 35 events and $289K in tracked cross-market volume.
- Buying No at 90¢ suggests a high-confidence view that the blockade will not be lifted by the deadline.
$1,482 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%
Top Holders
- 0xf9c1...39e2 — No, $276,324 (100% win rate)
- 0xf396...ed0d — No, $142,969 (91% win rate)
- 0x5925...b194 — Yes, $111,975 (33% win rate)
- 0xeed5...1a33 — No, $78,802 (67% win rate)
- 0xb129...34bf — Yes, $69,929
- 0xa022...77f8 — Yes, $60,110 (66% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $55,992 (85% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $53,349 (64% win rate)
- 0x7494...680d — Yes, $44,881 (92% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $39,002 (47% win rate)
