Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether the United States will publicly and officially announce the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of its naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers by December 31, 2026. The market resolves on January 1, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET; live odds were not included in the provided metadata.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
22 smart money signals detected, totaling $79,179.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Serial event trader with linked wallets
A profitable serial cross-market trader is active across nine markets in the same event, with seven wallets sharing a funder, although the linked-wallet activity is modest in dollar terms.
- This trader has appeared across 9 markets in the same event, with $130,844 in activity and a 66% win rate.
- Seven wallets share a funder, adding some corroboration; the linked-wallet group has about $3,093 in activity.
- The trader bought Yes at 43¢, while the market is up 7.5% over the past week.
$1,850 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Seven-wallet funded event position
A seven-wallet shared-funder cluster and substantial positioning across nine related markets make this Yes trade notable, despite no clear odds-adjusted edge in the wallet's record.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder are tied to $5,110 of activity on this market.
- The trader has positioned across nine related markets, with $130,709 in activity on the event.
- The wallet has won 66% of 330 resolved bets and is up $278,190 lifetime; Yes has also risen 9.2% this week.
$6,097 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Profitable veteran backing No
A highly experienced, profitable bettor is backing No, with a 75% win rate across 9,737 resolved bets and more than $1.6M in profit.
- This bettor has won 75% of 9,737 resolved bets and is up $1.63M.
- They put $1,195 on No at 60¢ in a liquid market.
$2,114 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Seven-wallet funded event position
A seven-wallet shared-funder cluster and substantial positioning across nine related markets make this Yes trade notable, despite no clear odds-adjusted edge in the wallet's record.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder are tied to $5,110 of activity on this market.
- The trader has positioned across nine related markets, with $130,709 in activity on the event.
- The wallet has won 66% of 330 resolved bets and is up $278,190 lifetime; Yes has also risen 9.2% this week.
$5,110 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Serial event trader with linked wallets
A profitable serial cross-market trader is active across nine markets in the same event, with seven wallets sharing a funder, although the linked-wallet activity is modest in dollar terms.
- This trader has appeared across 9 markets in the same event, with $130,844 in activity and a 66% win rate.
- Seven wallets share a funder, adding some corroboration; the linked-wallet group has about $3,093 in activity.
- The trader bought Yes at 43¢, while the market is up 7.5% over the past week.
$1,250 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Profitable veteran backing No
A highly experienced, profitable bettor is backing No, with a 75% win rate across 9,737 resolved bets and more than $1.6M in profit.
- This bettor has won 75% of 9,737 resolved bets and is up $1.63M.
- They put $1,195 on No at 60¢ in a liquid market.
$1,195 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Proven winner, 10-market event position
A highly profitable bettor with 378 resolved trades is positioning across 10 markets in the same event, including a $3,424 sell of No that converts to a Yes buy at 41¢.
- This bettor has won 76% of 378 resolved trades and is up about $761,000.
- They have traded 10 markets in this event, with $68,642 in total activity.
- Selling No at 59¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 41¢, near the current 40% odds.
$3,425 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
5-wallet cluster trimming Yes
Five wallets sharing a funder have repeatedly appeared in this market, though this trade sells an existing Yes position and is weaker evidence of fresh conviction.
- Five linked wallets have appeared in the market, with the cluster signal recurring across prior scans.
- This wallet sold Yes at 38¢, equivalent to buying No at 62¢, but it was reducing a sizable existing Yes position rather than opening a new bet.
- The wallet has a 45% win rate across 775 resolved bets, so its personal record does not add evidence of an edge.
$1,750 on No | Wallet win rate: 45%
Five-wallet funded cluster adding Yes
Five wallets sharing a funder have positioned on this market, and this bettor is adding Yes at 42¢ despite already holding a sizable position.
- Five wallets linked by a shared funder have put $1,260 into this market.
- This bettor added Yes at 42¢, below their existing 52¢ average entry, while already holding over $13,000 in Yes.
- The wallet is up about $40,000 lifetime, though its 45% win rate is not strong evidence of a proven edge.
$1,260 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 45%
Profitable serial trader adds No
A highly profitable bettor with an 81% win rate is adding to a No position and has a long-running cross-market track record.
- This bettor has won 81% of 272 resolved trades and is up $99,250.
- They are adding to an existing No position at 54¢, with $3,886 already invested.
- The trader has positioned across 34 events, suggesting a sustained track record beyond this market.
$2,098 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0xcf19...6402 — No, $183,513 (58% win rate)
- 0xd5cc...dea4 — Yes, $100,919 (72% win rate)
- 0x134a...9e42 — Yes, $57,180 (85% win rate)
- 0xc658...b784 — Yes, $39,226 (69% win rate)
- 0x35be...c77f — No, $30,523 (100% win rate)
- 0x6d9f...9790 — No, $26,013 (61% win rate)
- 0xc8ec...e8f1 — No, $21,331 (30% win rate)
- 0xfc2c...a146 — Yes, $20,100 (100% win rate)
- 0xb4fc...a926 — No, $20,000 (62% win rate)
- 0xab8f...06d6 — No, $19,883 (100% win rate)
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