Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the U.S. government will officially announce the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of its naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers by August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Current price odds were not included in the supplied metadata; PolySpotter tracks $1,260 in smart money across one signal, with recent activity favoring No.

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

23 smart money signals detected, totaling $117,283.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

94% winner scaling into No

A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is adding to an existing No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster and strong same-event positioning.

  • This bettor has won 255 of 271 resolved trades, with $194,983 in realized profit and a substantial edge over entry odds.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing No position at 65¢ while 19 linked wallets have deployed over $5,000 toward the same market.
  • No has strengthened as Yes fell 37% over the past week, supporting the trader's bearish position on an announced blockade ending.

$1,260 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

94% winner scaling into No

A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is adding to an existing No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster and strong same-event positioning.

  • This bettor has won 255 of 271 resolved trades, with $194,983 in realized profit and a substantial edge over entry odds.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing No position at 65¢ while 19 linked wallets have deployed over $5,000 toward the same market.
  • No has strengthened as Yes fell 37% over the past week, supporting the trader's bearish position on an announced blockade ending.

$3,816 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Profitable bettor adds to No

A highly profitable bettor with an 84% win rate is adding $1,710 to an existing No position, though the alert has limited independent confirmation.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $110,123 lifetime.
  • They added $1,710 to an existing No position, raising total investment to about $4,710.
  • No has already risen from the 57¢ entry to 62¢, but the latest copy price should stay below 67¢.

$3,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

82% cross-market bettor adds to No

A consistently directional cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate across five related markets is adding to an existing No position, though the market already prices No at 86%.

  • This bettor has an 82% win rate across five related markets, with $23,658 positioned in the event.
  • They are adding $4,057 to an existing No position at 85%, reinforcing a bearish view on the blockade ending.
  • The No price has fallen 32% over the past week, supporting the direction but leaving only modest apparent value at entry.

$4,057 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%

94% winner scaling into No

A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is adding to an existing No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster and strong same-event positioning.

  • This bettor has won 255 of 271 resolved trades, with $194,983 in realized profit and a substantial edge over entry odds.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing No position at 65¢ while 19 linked wallets have deployed over $5,000 toward the same market.
  • No has strengthened as Yes fell 37% over the past week, supporting the trader's bearish position on an announced blockade ending.

$4,920 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Proven bettor backs No

A highly experienced bettor with 331 resolved trades, a 75% win rate, and $691,333 in profits is taking No at near-even odds.

  • This bettor wins 75% of 331 resolved trades and is up $691,333 lifetime.
  • The 59% average entry odds imply a meaningful edge, while No is being bought at just 49¢.
  • The $1,195 position expresses fresh conviction in a liquid, politically consequential market.

$3,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Proven bettor backs No

A highly experienced bettor with 331 resolved trades, a 75% win rate, and $691,333 in profits is taking No at near-even odds.

  • This bettor wins 75% of 331 resolved trades and is up $691,333 lifetime.
  • The 59% average entry odds imply a meaningful edge, while No is being bought at just 49¢.
  • The $1,195 position expresses fresh conviction in a liquid, politically consequential market.

$5,436 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

94% winner scaling into No

A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is adding to an existing No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster and strong same-event positioning.

  • This bettor has won 255 of 271 resolved trades, with $194,983 in realized profit and a substantial edge over entry odds.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing No position at 65¢ while 19 linked wallets have deployed over $5,000 toward the same market.
  • No has strengthened as Yes fell 37% over the past week, supporting the trader's bearish position on an announced blockade ending.

$2,040 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

94% winner scaling into No

A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is adding to an existing No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster and strong same-event positioning.

  • This bettor has won 255 of 271 resolved trades, with $194,983 in realized profit and a substantial edge over entry odds.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing No position at 65¢ while 19 linked wallets have deployed over $5,000 toward the same market.
  • No has strengthened as Yes fell 37% over the past week, supporting the trader's bearish position on an announced blockade ending.

$3,997 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Six-wallet coordinated No bet

Six linked wallets and a serial cross-market trader are coordinating on No, creating a meaningful directional signal despite the individual wallet lacking a strong proven edge.

  • Six linked wallets funded by the same address have collectively positioned $8,434 on this market.
  • This trader has participated across 69 markets and 44 events, with 156 resolved bets and a 65% win rate.
  • No was bought at 66¢ while the market was already pricing it near 68%, so the trade signals moderate additional downside conviction for Yes.

$2,242 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc4c8...cabb Yes, $119,619 (25% win rate)
  2. 0x1cc1...b8df Yes, $115,407 (56% win rate)
  3. 0x7523...4c4c No, $100,000 (49% win rate)
  4. 0x1685...cb4e Yes, $53,536
  5. 0x162f...798d Yes, $49,113 (67% win rate)
  6. 0x9c98...f4f4 No, $47,513 (94% win rate)
  7. 0x7919...72b2 No, $42,956 (98% win rate)
  8. 0x199d...6e7b No, $37,162 (90% win rate)
  9. 0x7c6a...0b8c Yes, $35,099 (63% win rate)
  10. 0xeb22...808a Yes, $35,000 (34% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 11 related markets

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Iranian blockade persists through August

Covers 7 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

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Iran deal by mid-June

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Iran closes airspace mid-May

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Someone else wins Peru presidency

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Iran deal by mid-June

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World Cup favorites prevail

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US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

7dUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?$117,283 tracked23 signalsIranTrumpBlockadePoliticsshippingPeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran
Yes
3¢
No
97¢

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Price History — “No
99¢
91¢
83¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

5d ago

$1,260 on No at 65¢

65¢97¢32¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

6d ago

$3,816 on No at 65¢

65¢97¢32¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

7d ago

$3,400 on No at 57¢

57¢97¢40¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

7d ago

$4,057 on No at 85¢

85¢97¢12¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

7d ago

$4,920 on No at 65¢

65¢97¢32¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

8d ago

$3,120 on No at 49¢

49¢97¢48¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

10d ago

$5,436 on No at 49¢

49¢97¢48¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

10d ago

$2,040 on No at 65¢

65¢97¢32¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

10d ago

$3,997 on No at 65¢

65¢97¢32¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

11d ago

$2,242 on No at 66¢

66¢97¢31¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

11d ago

$2,255 on No at 66¢

66¢97¢31¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

11d ago

$27,833 on Yes at 36¢

36¢3¢33¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

11d ago

$1,918 on No at 49¢

49¢97¢48¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

13d ago

$1,652 on No at 67¢

67¢97¢30¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

13d ago

$3,420 on No at 57¢

57¢97¢40¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

14d ago

$3,128 on No at 49¢

49¢97¢48¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

14d ago

$3,460 on No at 57¢

57¢97¢40¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

14d ago

$22,848 on No at 68¢

68¢97¢29¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

12d ago

$9,980 on No at 56¢

56¢97¢41¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

14d ago

$2,000 on No at 58¢

58¢97¢39¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

27d ago

$1,195 on No at 49¢

49¢97¢48¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

29d ago

$1,597 on No at 57¢

57¢97¢40¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

36d ago

$1,710 on No at 57¢

57¢97¢40¢

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