Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?
This prediction market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by June 9 at 11:59 PM ET. A “Yes” outcome requires a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension covering all or most Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving, or departing. PolySpotter is tracking $1,088 in smart money activity across 1 signal for this Israel-Iran geopolitics market, which resolves on June 15, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,236.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Six-market event trader
A modest SELL No converts to a Yes bet, but it is notable because the wallet has built a much larger $57.9K cross-market thesis and the price moved in its direction.
- This wallet has put $57.9K across 6 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling No at 87¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 13¢, and Yes has already moved to about 17¢.
- The market is liquid, but a 10-point rapid move against No adds momentum to the same direction.
$1,088 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
92% winner buying dip
A highly profitable 92% lifetime winner is buying Yes after a sharp selloff while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $48.6K lifetime.
- They are active across 3 related markets with $20.8K total exposure, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying Yes at 38¢ after a steep drop implies they see the selloff as overdone.
$1,254 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with 892 resolved bets and $360k lifetime profit is buying No across related airspace markets.
- This bettor has a long track record: 62% wins across 892 resolved bets and $360,929 in lifetime profit.
- They are active across related markets, with 34 prior cross-market events and $708,380 total traded in this pattern.
- Buying No at 63¢ implies they see the airspace-closure risk as overstated.
$1,182 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Experienced profitable cross-market trader bought No on a thin Israel airspace market, with related positioning across three markets and trade size exceeding recent volume.
- This experienced bettor is up about $86k across 1,228 resolved bets.
- They have placed $10.9k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This No buy was larger than the market’s prior 24h volume, in a thin book with a wide spread.
$1,712 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%
Top Holders
- 0x8d4b...07cb — Yes, $27,913 (44% win rate)
- 0xc96e...f1f9 — No, $14,956 (73% win rate)
- 0x7f9e...3a0e — No, $14,628 (87% win rate)
- 0x6d9f...9790 — No, $13,381 (62% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Yes, $4,000 (47% win rate)
- 0x0982...d576 — Yes, $3,800
- 0xb8d2...c66b — No, $3,179 (77% win rate)
- 0x2c39...56dc — No, $3,047 (56% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Yes, $3,042 (92% win rate)
- 0x86e9...4cdf — Yes, $2,875 (97% win rate)
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