Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

This prediction market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by June 9 at 11:59 PM ET. A “Yes” outcome requires a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension covering all or most Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving, or departing. PolySpotter is tracking $1,088 in smart money activity across 1 signal for this Israel-Iran geopolitics market, which resolves on June 15, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,236.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Six-market event trader

A modest SELL No converts to a Yes bet, but it is notable because the wallet has built a much larger $57.9K cross-market thesis and the price moved in its direction.

  • This wallet has put $57.9K across 6 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Selling No at 87¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 13¢, and Yes has already moved to about 17¢.
  • The market is liquid, but a 10-point rapid move against No adds momentum to the same direction.

$1,088 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%

92% winner buying dip

A highly profitable 92% lifetime winner is buying Yes after a sharp selloff while also positioning across related markets.

  • This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $48.6K lifetime.
  • They are active across 3 related markets with $20.8K total exposure, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • Buying Yes at 38¢ after a steep drop implies they see the selloff as overdone.

$1,254 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with 892 resolved bets and $360k lifetime profit is buying No across related airspace markets.

  • This bettor has a long track record: 62% wins across 892 resolved bets and $360,929 in lifetime profit.
  • They are active across related markets, with 34 prior cross-market events and $708,380 total traded in this pattern.
  • Buying No at 63¢ implies they see the airspace-closure risk as overstated.

$1,182 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Experienced profitable cross-market trader bought No on a thin Israel airspace market, with related positioning across three markets and trade size exceeding recent volume.

  • This experienced bettor is up about $86k across 1,228 resolved bets.
  • They have placed $10.9k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • This No buy was larger than the market’s prior 24h volume, in a thin book with a wide spread.

$1,712 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%

Top Holders

  1. 0x8d4b...07cb Yes, $27,913 (44% win rate)
  2. 0xc96e...f1f9 No, $14,956 (73% win rate)
  3. 0x7f9e...3a0e No, $14,628 (87% win rate)
  4. 0x6d9f...9790 No, $13,381 (62% win rate)
  5. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $4,000 (47% win rate)
  6. 0x0982...d576 Yes, $3,800
  7. 0xb8d2...c66b No, $3,179 (77% win rate)
  8. 0x2c39...56dc No, $3,047 (56% win rate)
  9. 0x9592...a7b8 Yes, $3,042 (92% win rate)
  10. 0x86e9...4cdf Yes, $2,875 (97% win rate)

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Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

6dIsrael closes its airspace by...?$5,236 tracked4 signalsIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran
Yes
4¢
No
96¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
98¢
77¢
56¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

2h ago

$1,088 on Yes at 13¢

13¢4¢9¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

9h ago

$1,254 on Yes at 38¢

38¢4¢34¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

10h ago

$1,182 on No at 63¢

63¢96¢33¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

12h ago

$1,712 on No at 52¢

52¢96¢44¢

Related Theses