Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
25 smart money signals detected, totaling $65,094.
Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Profitable serial geopolitics trader
Profitable high-volume wallet flipped from Yes into No on deadline day in a fast-moving U.S.-Iran talks market.
- This bettor has 1,124 resolved trades, wins 70%, and is up $47,761 lifetime.
- They flipped from an earlier Yes position into No on deadline day, paying 85¢ despite a fast-moving market.
- They have traded across 42 related events, suggesting a researched geopolitical thesis.
$1,995 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader effectively bought Yes while volume spiked and multiple wallets joined the same side.
- This bettor has won 73% of 437 resolved trades and is up about $249k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 106 events with $8.7M deployed.
- Market volume spiked 29x, and 4 wallets placed $4.5k on the same Yes side.
$1,272 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader effectively bought Yes while volume spiked and multiple wallets joined the same side.
- This bettor has won 73% of 437 resolved trades and is up about $249k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 106 events with $8.7M deployed.
- Market volume spiked 29x, and 4 wallets placed $4.5k on the same Yes side.
$4,892 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Profitable serial geopolitics trader
Profitable high-volume wallet flipped from Yes into No on deadline day in a fast-moving U.S.-Iran talks market.
- This bettor has 1,124 resolved trades, wins 70%, and is up $47,761 lifetime.
- They flipped from an earlier Yes position into No on deadline day, paying 85¢ despite a fast-moving market.
- They have traded across 42 related events, suggesting a researched geopolitical thesis.
$2,068 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable serial trader flips Yes
High composite alert with a profitable serial cross-market trader flipping into Yes amid a major volume spike, strong one-sided flow, and a 50-point price move.
- This bettor has a long track record: 68% wins across 1,140 resolved bets and $55K in profit.
- They flipped from No to Yes as the market surged, buying at 75¢ after closing a prior No position.
- Four wallets are buying Yes together, with volume spiking 56x and the Yes price up about 51 points.
$1,259 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable serial trader flips Yes
High composite alert with a profitable serial cross-market trader flipping into Yes amid a major volume spike, strong one-sided flow, and a 50-point price move.
- This bettor has a long track record: 68% wins across 1,140 resolved bets and $55K in profit.
- They flipped from No to Yes as the market surged, buying at 75¢ after closing a prior No position.
- Four wallets are buying Yes together, with volume spiking 56x and the Yes price up about 51 points.
$1,455 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable 78% bettor buying NO
A profitable high-volume bettor with a 78% resolved win rate bought $3.1k of No on a plausible geopolitics market despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $18k lifetime.
- They put $3.1k on No at 84¢, adding conviction that no senior-level U.S.-Iran meeting happens by the deadline.
- The market has already moved toward No, with Yes down 17.5 percentage points over the past day.
$3,133 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader effectively bought Yes while volume spiked and multiple wallets joined the same side.
- This bettor has won 73% of 437 resolved trades and is up about $249k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 106 events with $8.7M deployed.
- Market volume spiked 29x, and 4 wallets placed $4.5k on the same Yes side.
$4,507 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Profitable serial trader flips Yes
High composite alert with a profitable serial cross-market trader flipping into Yes amid a major volume spike, strong one-sided flow, and a 50-point price move.
- This bettor has a long track record: 68% wins across 1,140 resolved bets and $55K in profit.
- They flipped from No to Yes as the market surged, buying at 75¢ after closing a prior No position.
- Four wallets are buying Yes together, with volume spiking 56x and the Yes price up about 51 points.
$2,004 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable 78% bettor buying NO
A profitable high-volume bettor with a 78% resolved win rate bought $3.1k of No on a plausible geopolitics market despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $18k lifetime.
- They put $3.1k on No at 84¢, adding conviction that no senior-level U.S.-Iran meeting happens by the deadline.
- The market has already moved toward No, with Yes down 17.5 percentage points over the past day.
$1,873 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Top Holders
- 0x35e1...fcc4 — Outcome 15633154, $50,000
- 0x12df...6a3d — Outcome 15633154, $31,470 (63% win rate)
- 0x5bde...7b73 — Outcome 15633154, $14,451
- 0x0845...6b6f — Outcome 15633154, $7,791 (70% win rate)
- 0x0bfb...26a7 — Outcome 15633154, $7,008
- 0xa53e...93e6 — Outcome 15633154, $7,000
- 0x1e1f...c855 — Outcome 15633154, $6,514 (59% win rate)
- 0x4178...fbcb — Outcome 15633154, $5,907
- 0x4021...1a51 — Outcome 15633154, $5,000
- 0xdbd2...d057 — Outcome 15633154, $5,000
Related Theses
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 4 related markets
Iran ceasefire collapses by June
Covers 6 related markets
Iran closes airspace late June
Covers 7 related markets
