Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
69 signals across 9 markets · $201,294 tracked · resolves Jul 31, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether the next formal senior-level round of U.S.-Iran peace talks begins by the listed deadline, following reported progress in Switzerland. Traders are pricing the timing of follow-on diplomacy, with smart money activity currently led by a profitable serial cross-market trader.
Markets (9)
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?25 signals · $65,094 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?14 signals · $51,628 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?10 signals · $29,134 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?6 signals · $18,554 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?2 signals · $14,762 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?4 signals · $10,266 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?6 signals · $8,052 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?1 signal · $2,720 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?1 signal · $1,085 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable cluster buying Yes
High-scoring coordinated Yes buying from three profitable, politics-active wallets coincided with a 29x volume spike and pushed the market from low-60s entries to 72%.
$12,958Score: 16.1 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader effectively bought Yes while volume spiked and multiple wallets joined the same side.
$1,053Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 16.0 - 8-wallet funded cluster
Surface: despite this wallet’s negative lifetime P&L, the trade is backed by a large recurring linked-wallet cluster on a geopolitically sensitive market that just moved sharply toward Yes.
$1,433Wallet win rate: 65%Score: 12.7 - Profitable serial trader flips Yes
High composite alert with a profitable serial cross-market trader flipping into Yes amid a major volume spike, strong one-sided flow, and a 50-point price move.
$1,158Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 12.3 - Profitable serial trader flips Yes
High composite alert with a profitable serial cross-market trader flipping into Yes amid a major volume spike, strong one-sided flow, and a 50-point price move.
$1,822Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 10.6 - New wallet joins Yes cluster
A repeat new wallet joined coordinated Yes buying on a geopolitics market, alongside 3-wallet one-sided flow and a sharp intraday price move.
$2,145Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 10.3 - 94% winner in 19-wallet cluster
A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is buying No alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster, making this a strong coordinated and track-record-backed position.
$3,072Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 10.1 - 94% winner adding to No
A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is adding to a No position while part of a 19-wallet funded cluster.
$5,302Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 10.1 - 94% winner in 19-wallet cluster
A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is buying No alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster, making this a strong coordinated and track-record-backed position.
$1,044Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 10.1 - 8-wallet funded cluster
Surface: despite this wallet’s negative lifetime P&L, the trade is backed by a large recurring linked-wallet cluster on a geopolitically sensitive market that just moved sharply toward Yes.
$3,000Wallet win rate: 65%Score: 10.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x9c987f…f4f4$26,987 · 4 markets · 11 alerts · 94% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$19,855 · 3 markets · 9 alerts · 76% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$16,762 · 2 markets · 7 alerts · 73% wins
- 0xbf4d20…33ed$12,392 · 3 markets · 5 alerts · 80% wins
- 0x5e73af…6697$10,714 · 1 market · 7 alerts · 69% wins
- 0xe23495…304a$6,579 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 66% wins
- 0xbf961d…9942$6,528 · 1 market · 1 alert · 79% wins
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$4,562 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
- 0xb476d5…6eac$4,433 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 65% wins
- 0x9a3fa4…914a$4,426 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 59% wins
FAQs
What is the US-Iran peace talks prediction market about?
This event covers whether representatives of the United States and Iran begin the next formal senior-level round of diplomatic peace talks by the specified date. The child market currently focuses on whether that meeting starts by July 10, 2026.
What odds are traders watching for the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting?
Traders are watching the Polymarket price for whether a senior-level US-Iran meeting happens by the deadline. The odds can shift quickly with news about mediators, technical talks, official statements, or scheduling reports.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,387 in smart money activity across this event, including a signal from a profitable serial cross-market trader. That suggests at least one historically successful trader has taken interest in the timing of the next diplomatic round.
When does this US-Iran talks market resolve?
The event is set to resolve based on whether the next formal senior-level round of US-Iran peace talks begins by the listed deadline, with the overall event resolving by July 31, 2026.