Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
25 smart money signals detected, totaling $65,094.
Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Profitable serial geopolitics trader
Profitable high-volume wallet flipped from Yes into No on deadline day in a fast-moving U.S.-Iran talks market.
- This bettor has 1,124 resolved trades, wins 70%, and is up $47,761 lifetime.
- They flipped from an earlier Yes position into No on deadline day, paying 85¢ despite a fast-moving market.
- They have traded across 42 related events, suggesting a researched geopolitical thesis.
$1,995 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader effectively bought Yes while volume spiked and multiple wallets joined the same side.
- This bettor has won 73% of 437 resolved trades and is up about $249k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 106 events with $8.7M deployed.
- Market volume spiked 29x, and 4 wallets placed $4.5k on the same Yes side.
$1,272 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader effectively bought Yes while volume spiked and multiple wallets joined the same side.
- This bettor has won 73% of 437 resolved trades and is up about $249k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 106 events with $8.7M deployed.
- Market volume spiked 29x, and 4 wallets placed $4.5k on the same Yes side.
$4,892 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable serial geopolitics trader
Profitable high-volume wallet flipped from Yes into No on deadline day in a fast-moving U.S.-Iran talks market.
- This bettor has 1,124 resolved trades, wins 70%, and is up $47,761 lifetime.
- They flipped from an earlier Yes position into No on deadline day, paying 85¢ despite a fast-moving market.
- They have traded across 42 related events, suggesting a researched geopolitical thesis.
$2,068 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable serial trader flips Yes
High composite alert with a profitable serial cross-market trader flipping into Yes amid a major volume spike, strong one-sided flow, and a 50-point price move.
- This bettor has a long track record: 68% wins across 1,140 resolved bets and $55K in profit.
- They flipped from No to Yes as the market surged, buying at 75¢ after closing a prior No position.
- Four wallets are buying Yes together, with volume spiking 56x and the Yes price up about 51 points.
$1,259 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable serial trader flips Yes
High composite alert with a profitable serial cross-market trader flipping into Yes amid a major volume spike, strong one-sided flow, and a 50-point price move.
- This bettor has a long track record: 68% wins across 1,140 resolved bets and $55K in profit.
- They flipped from No to Yes as the market surged, buying at 75¢ after closing a prior No position.
- Four wallets are buying Yes together, with volume spiking 56x and the Yes price up about 51 points.
$1,455 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable 78% bettor buying NO
A profitable high-volume bettor with a 78% resolved win rate bought $3.1k of No on a plausible geopolitics market despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $18k lifetime.
- They put $3.1k on No at 84¢, adding conviction that no senior-level U.S.-Iran meeting happens by the deadline.
- The market has already moved toward No, with Yes down 17.5 percentage points over the past day.
$3,133 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader effectively bought Yes while volume spiked and multiple wallets joined the same side.
- This bettor has won 73% of 437 resolved trades and is up about $249k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 106 events with $8.7M deployed.
- Market volume spiked 29x, and 4 wallets placed $4.5k on the same Yes side.
$4,507 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable serial trader flips Yes
High composite alert with a profitable serial cross-market trader flipping into Yes amid a major volume spike, strong one-sided flow, and a 50-point price move.
- This bettor has a long track record: 68% wins across 1,140 resolved bets and $55K in profit.
- They flipped from No to Yes as the market surged, buying at 75¢ after closing a prior No position.
- Four wallets are buying Yes together, with volume spiking 56x and the Yes price up about 51 points.
$2,004 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable 78% bettor buying NO
A profitable high-volume bettor with a 78% resolved win rate bought $3.1k of No on a plausible geopolitics market despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $18k lifetime.
- They put $3.1k on No at 84¢, adding conviction that no senior-level U.S.-Iran meeting happens by the deadline.
- The market has already moved toward No, with Yes down 17.5 percentage points over the past day.
$1,873 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Top Holders
- 0x35e1...fcc4 — Yes, $50,000
- 0x12df...6a3d — Yes, $31,470 (63% win rate)
- 0x5bde...7b73 — Yes, $14,451
- 0x0845...6b6f — Yes, $7,791 (70% win rate)
- 0x0bfb...26a7 — Yes, $7,008
- 0xa53e...93e6 — Yes, $7,000
- 0x1e1f...c855 — Yes, $6,514 (59% win rate)
- 0x4178...fbcb — Yes, $5,907
- 0x4021...1a51 — Yes, $5,000
- 0xdbd2...d057 — Yes, $5,000
Related Theses
Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Iran ceasefire collapses by June
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Iran closes airspace late June
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Iran deal unlikely soon
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