Part of: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.

20 smart money signals detected, totaling $90,209.

Categories: Iran, ceasefire, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Six-wallet cluster adding to Yes

Six linked wallets and a serial cross-market trader are aligned on Yes, with the wallet adding to a substantial existing position as the market has risen 40.8% over the week.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this market, signaling coordinated conviction.
  • This trader has won 68% of 105 resolved bets and is adding to a $41,395 Yes position.
  • Yes has risen 40.8% over the past week alongside heavy $474,194 daily volume.

$1,562 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Six-wallet coordinated rebalancing

Six linked wallets and a serial cross-market trader drove a sharp move in this market, although the wallet is actively rebalancing a large existing Yes position rather than making a clean one-sided bet.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder placed $6,872 in related trades, a strong coordinated-flow signal.
  • This serial trader has participated in 35 events and is up $79,618 across 106 resolved bets.
  • The wallet is rebalancing a large existing Yes position, so the mixed Yes/No trades are weaker evidence of a fresh directional view.

$6,872 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Six-wallet cluster adding to Yes

Six linked wallets and a serial cross-market trader are aligned on Yes, with the wallet adding to a substantial existing position as the market has risen 40.8% over the week.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this market, signaling coordinated conviction.
  • This trader has won 68% of 105 resolved bets and is adding to a $41,395 Yes position.
  • Yes has risen 40.8% over the past week alongside heavy $474,194 daily volume.

$2,965 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Serial sharp bettor scaling into No

A proven 84% winner with $109,656 in profits made a concentrated bearish trade while adding to an existing No position amid a major volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 84% of 38 resolved trades and is up $109,656 lifetime.
  • They bought $8,904 of No at 80¢ while already holding $22,609 of No, signaling increased conviction.
  • The market saw a 23x volume spike, and this trader positioned across three markets in the same event.

$2,858 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Six-wallet cluster adding to Yes

Six linked wallets and a serial cross-market trader are aligned on Yes, with the wallet adding to a substantial existing position as the market has risen 40.8% over the week.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this market, signaling coordinated conviction.
  • This trader has won 68% of 105 resolved bets and is adding to a $41,395 Yes position.
  • Yes has risen 40.8% over the past week alongside heavy $474,194 daily volume.

$1,708 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Serial sharp bettor buys Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate and substantial historical edge is buying Yes at near-even odds in a sharply rising geopolitical market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of 1,436 resolved trades and is up $757,363 lifetime.
  • The 49¢ entry is far below the wallet’s average winning price of 43¢ only slightly, while its 42% edge over implied odds supports the position.
  • Yes has risen 16.9% in one day and 39.9% in a week, reinforcing the trader’s directional conviction.

$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Six-wallet cluster adding to Yes

Six linked wallets and a serial cross-market trader are aligned on Yes, with the wallet adding to a substantial existing position as the market has risen 40.8% over the week.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this market, signaling coordinated conviction.
  • This trader has won 68% of 105 resolved bets and is adding to a $41,395 Yes position.
  • Yes has risen 40.8% over the past week alongside heavy $474,194 daily volume.

$2,409 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Six-wallet cluster adding to Yes

Six linked wallets and a serial cross-market trader are aligned on Yes, with the wallet adding to a substantial existing position as the market has risen 40.8% over the week.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this market, signaling coordinated conviction.
  • This trader has won 68% of 105 resolved bets and is adding to a $41,395 Yes position.
  • Yes has risen 40.8% over the past week alongside heavy $474,194 daily volume.

$1,046 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Serial sharp rotating toward Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor is reducing a large No position, equivalent to buying Yes around 17¢, though the trade appears to be a partial position adjustment rather than a fresh entry.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $107,913 across 37 bets.
  • Selling $2,490 of No at 83¢ is equivalent to buying Yes near 17¢, signaling reduced confidence in No.
  • The wallet has traded across 27 events and 39 markets, providing a substantial record beyond this single position.

$1,551 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

Serial sharp rotating toward Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor is reducing a large No position, equivalent to buying Yes around 17¢, though the trade appears to be a partial position adjustment rather than a fresh entry.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $107,913 across 37 bets.
  • Selling $2,490 of No at 83¢ is equivalent to buying Yes near 17¢, signaling reduced confidence in No.
  • The wallet has traded across 27 events and 39 markets, providing a substantial record beyond this single position.

$5,027 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbd04...fbb0 No, $42,565 (73% win rate)
  2. 0xffa3...3d81 No, $42,296
  3. 0x7447...a16d Yes, $40,526 (57% win rate)
  4. 0x53e5...6177 No, $35,583 (44% win rate)
  5. 0x7131...29cc No, $34,180 (73% win rate)
  6. 0x7bc1...8db4 Yes, $32,879 (66% win rate)
  7. 0x162f...798d Yes, $28,367 (70% win rate)
  8. 0xab19...4876 Yes, $28,108 (59% win rate)
  9. 0xc84f...e0c5 Yes, $23,440 (87% win rate)
  10. 0x7c6a...0b8c No, $19,231 (61% win rate)

Related Theses

World Cup favorites prevail

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Someone else wins Peru presidency

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Iran deal by mid-June

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Israel airspace closures will be temporary

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Trump lifts blockade by April

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Iran closure comes early or late

Covers 3 related markets

US-Iran peace deal unlikely

Covers 2 related markets

No early June deal

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Iran deal after mid-June

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Brief ceasefire collapses by July's end

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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

ResolvedUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)$90,209 tracked20 signalsIranceasefirePeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x IranIran Ceasefire
Yes
49¢
No
51¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “No
101¢
72¢
44¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

11h ago

$1,562 on Yes at 50¢

50¢49¢1¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

11h ago

$6,872 on No at 52¢

52¢51¢1¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

12h ago

$2,965 on Yes at 50¢

50¢49¢1¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

17h ago

$2,858 on No at 80¢

80¢51¢29¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

1d ago

$1,708 on Yes at 50¢

50¢49¢1¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

1d ago

$1,500 on Yes at 49¢

49¢49¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

1d ago

$2,409 on Yes at 50¢

50¢49¢1¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

1d ago

$1,046 on Yes at 50¢

50¢49¢1¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2d ago

$1,551 on Yes at 17¢

17¢49¢32¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2d ago

$5,027 on Yes at 17¢

17¢49¢32¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2d ago

$13,007 on No at 72¢

72¢51¢21¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2d ago

$1,050 on No at 81¢

81¢51¢30¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2d ago

$9,449 on Yes at 22¢

22¢49¢27¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2d ago

$10,900 on No at 80¢

80¢51¢29¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2d ago

$4,000 on No at 81¢

81¢51¢30¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

7d ago

$3,000 on No at 86¢

86¢51¢35¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

7d ago

$2,640 on Yes at 17¢

17¢49¢32¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

7d ago

$2,490 on Yes at 17¢

17¢49¢32¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

7d ago

$1,515 on No at 86¢

86¢51¢35¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

1d ago

$14,659 on No at 50¢

50¢51¢1¢

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