Part of: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
27 smart money signals detected, totaling $154,709.
Categories: Iran, ceasefire, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Profitable bettor adds to Yes
A profitable bettor with a 67% win rate and substantial edge at an average 43¢ winning entry is adding $2,287 to an existing Yes position.
- This bettor wins 67% of 55 resolved trades and is up $58,433 overall.
- They added $2,287 to an existing Yes position, showing increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- Yes was bought at 50¢ while the market is near 51¢, with odds already up 41.8% over the past week.
$1,195 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Serial trader scales into No
A serial cross-market trader with 633 resolved bets added $4,000 to No amid a 178x volume surge, though the position is partly routine scaling of an existing No holding.
- This bettor has traded across 59 markets and 30 events, with 633 resolved bets and a 71% win rate.
- A $4,000 No purchase coincided with a 178x historical volume spike and a 15.4-point daily rise in Yes odds.
- The wallet is adding to an existing No position at 81¢, while also holding a smaller Yes hedge.
$3,924 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Five-wallet shift toward Yes
Five wallets coordinated $13,041 of No selling, creating a meaningful equivalent Yes signal, though existing No holdings suggest some may be reducing positions rather than expressing fresh conviction.
- Five wallets sold $13,041 of No within minutes, equivalent to buying Yes around 24¢.
- The flow was meaningful against $90,142 of liquidity and accompanied a 10.7x volume spike.
- Most wallets already held No, so this looks partly like coordinated position reduction rather than pure new conviction.
$13,041 on Yes
Profitable bettor adds to Yes
A profitable bettor with a 67% win rate and substantial edge at an average 43¢ winning entry is adding $2,287 to an existing Yes position.
- This bettor wins 67% of 55 resolved trades and is up $58,433 overall.
- They added $2,287 to an existing Yes position, showing increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- Yes was bought at 50¢ while the market is near 51¢, with odds already up 41.8% over the past week.
$1,075 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Sharp bettor scales into Yes
A profitable bettor with a meaningful 55-bet track record and 24-point edge over average winning prices is adding $2,929 to an existing Yes position amid strong upward momentum.
- This bettor wins 67% of 55 resolved trades and is up $59,101 overall.
- They added $2,929 to an existing Yes position at 53¢, increasing a $10,462 commitment.
- Yes has risen 43.2% over the past week, supporting the bettor’s direction.
$2,929 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable bettor adds to Yes
A profitable bettor with a 67% win rate and substantial edge at an average 43¢ winning entry is adding $2,287 to an existing Yes position.
- This bettor wins 67% of 55 resolved trades and is up $58,433 overall.
- They added $2,287 to an existing Yes position, showing increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- Yes was bought at 50¢ while the market is near 51¢, with odds already up 41.8% over the past week.
$1,854 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable bettor adds to Yes
A profitable bettor with a 67% win rate and substantial edge at an average 43¢ winning entry is adding $2,287 to an existing Yes position.
- This bettor wins 67% of 55 resolved trades and is up $58,433 overall.
- They added $2,287 to an existing Yes position, showing increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- Yes was bought at 50¢ while the market is near 51¢, with odds already up 41.8% over the past week.
$2,287 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Six-wallet cluster adding to Yes
Six linked wallets and a serial cross-market trader are aligned on Yes, with the wallet adding to a substantial existing position as the market has risen 40.8% over the week.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this market, signaling coordinated conviction.
- This trader has won 68% of 105 resolved bets and is adding to a $41,395 Yes position.
- Yes has risen 40.8% over the past week alongside heavy $474,194 daily volume.
$1,562 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Six-wallet coordinated rebalancing
Six linked wallets and a serial cross-market trader drove a sharp move in this market, although the wallet is actively rebalancing a large existing Yes position rather than making a clean one-sided bet.
- Six wallets sharing a funder placed $6,872 in related trades, a strong coordinated-flow signal.
- This serial trader has participated in 35 events and is up $79,618 across 106 resolved bets.
- The wallet is rebalancing a large existing Yes position, so the mixed Yes/No trades are weaker evidence of a fresh directional view.
$6,872 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Six-wallet cluster adding to Yes
Six linked wallets and a serial cross-market trader are aligned on Yes, with the wallet adding to a substantial existing position as the market has risen 40.8% over the week.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this market, signaling coordinated conviction.
- This trader has won 68% of 105 resolved bets and is adding to a $41,395 Yes position.
- Yes has risen 40.8% over the past week alongside heavy $474,194 daily volume.
$2,965 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Top Holders
- 0xbc8c...273f — Outcome 11341096, $182,000 (73% win rate)
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 11341096, $75,404 (71% win rate)
- 0x4c2a...65dc — Outcome 11341096, $50,161 (33% win rate)
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Outcome 11341096, $49,352 (87% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 11341096, $40,526 (52% win rate)
- 0x8cc8...f1b3 — Outcome 11341096, $30,000 (86% win rate)
- 0xec31...abd7 — Outcome 11341096, $26,086
- 0x5e73...6697 — Outcome 11341096, $26,047 (70% win rate)
- 0x5039...946d — Outcome 11341096, $20,000 (57% win rate)
- 0x8c66...44f3 — Outcome 11341096, $17,242 (83% win rate)
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