Part of: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.

24 smart money signals detected, totaling $98,354.

Categories: Iran, ceasefire, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor adds to Yes

A profitable bettor with a 67% win rate and substantial edge at an average 43¢ winning entry is adding $2,287 to an existing Yes position.

  • This bettor wins 67% of 55 resolved trades and is up $58,433 overall.
  • They added $2,287 to an existing Yes position, showing increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
  • Yes was bought at 50¢ while the market is near 51¢, with odds already up 41.8% over the past week.

$1,075 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Sharp bettor scales into Yes

A profitable bettor with a meaningful 55-bet track record and 24-point edge over average winning prices is adding $2,929 to an existing Yes position amid strong upward momentum.

  • This bettor wins 67% of 55 resolved trades and is up $59,101 overall.
  • They added $2,929 to an existing Yes position at 53¢, increasing a $10,462 commitment.
  • Yes has risen 43.2% over the past week, supporting the bettor’s direction.

$2,929 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable bettor adds to Yes

A profitable bettor with a 67% win rate and substantial edge at an average 43¢ winning entry is adding $2,287 to an existing Yes position.

  • This bettor wins 67% of 55 resolved trades and is up $58,433 overall.
  • They added $2,287 to an existing Yes position, showing increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
  • Yes was bought at 50¢ while the market is near 51¢, with odds already up 41.8% over the past week.

$1,854 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable bettor adds to Yes

A profitable bettor with a 67% win rate and substantial edge at an average 43¢ winning entry is adding $2,287 to an existing Yes position.

  • This bettor wins 67% of 55 resolved trades and is up $58,433 overall.
  • They added $2,287 to an existing Yes position, showing increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
  • Yes was bought at 50¢ while the market is near 51¢, with odds already up 41.8% over the past week.

$2,287 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Six-wallet cluster adding to Yes

Six linked wallets and a serial cross-market trader are aligned on Yes, with the wallet adding to a substantial existing position as the market has risen 40.8% over the week.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this market, signaling coordinated conviction.
  • This trader has won 68% of 105 resolved bets and is adding to a $41,395 Yes position.
  • Yes has risen 40.8% over the past week alongside heavy $474,194 daily volume.

$1,562 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Six-wallet coordinated rebalancing

Six linked wallets and a serial cross-market trader drove a sharp move in this market, although the wallet is actively rebalancing a large existing Yes position rather than making a clean one-sided bet.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder placed $6,872 in related trades, a strong coordinated-flow signal.
  • This serial trader has participated in 35 events and is up $79,618 across 106 resolved bets.
  • The wallet is rebalancing a large existing Yes position, so the mixed Yes/No trades are weaker evidence of a fresh directional view.

$6,872 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Six-wallet cluster adding to Yes

Six linked wallets and a serial cross-market trader are aligned on Yes, with the wallet adding to a substantial existing position as the market has risen 40.8% over the week.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this market, signaling coordinated conviction.
  • This trader has won 68% of 105 resolved bets and is adding to a $41,395 Yes position.
  • Yes has risen 40.8% over the past week alongside heavy $474,194 daily volume.

$2,965 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Serial sharp bettor scaling into No

A proven 84% winner with $109,656 in profits made a concentrated bearish trade while adding to an existing No position amid a major volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 84% of 38 resolved trades and is up $109,656 lifetime.
  • They bought $8,904 of No at 80¢ while already holding $22,609 of No, signaling increased conviction.
  • The market saw a 23x volume spike, and this trader positioned across three markets in the same event.

$2,858 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Six-wallet cluster adding to Yes

Six linked wallets and a serial cross-market trader are aligned on Yes, with the wallet adding to a substantial existing position as the market has risen 40.8% over the week.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this market, signaling coordinated conviction.
  • This trader has won 68% of 105 resolved bets and is adding to a $41,395 Yes position.
  • Yes has risen 40.8% over the past week alongside heavy $474,194 daily volume.

$1,708 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Serial sharp bettor buys Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate and substantial historical edge is buying Yes at near-even odds in a sharply rising geopolitical market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of 1,436 resolved trades and is up $757,363 lifetime.
  • The 49¢ entry is far below the wallet’s average winning price of 43¢ only slightly, while its 42% edge over implied odds supports the position.
  • Yes has risen 16.9% in one day and 39.9% in a week, reinforcing the trader’s directional conviction.

$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbd04...fbb0 No, $42,565 (73% win rate)
  2. 0xffa3...3d81 No, $42,296
  3. 0x7447...a16d Yes, $40,526 (57% win rate)
  4. 0x53e5...6177 No, $35,583 (44% win rate)
  5. 0x7131...29cc No, $34,180 (73% win rate)
  6. 0x7bc1...8db4 Yes, $32,879 (66% win rate)
  7. 0x162f...798d Yes, $28,367 (70% win rate)
  8. 0xab19...4876 Yes, $28,108 (59% win rate)
  9. 0xc84f...e0c5 Yes, $23,440 (87% win rate)
  10. 0x7c6a...0b8c No, $19,231 (61% win rate)

Related Theses

World Cup favorites prevail

Covers 4 related markets

Someone else wins Peru presidency

Covers 3 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 5 related markets

Israel airspace closures will be temporary

Covers 5 related markets

Trump lifts blockade by April

Covers 8 related markets

Iran closure comes early or late

Covers 3 related markets

US-Iran peace deal unlikely

Covers 2 related markets

No early June deal

Covers 2 related markets

Iran deal after mid-June

Covers 3 related markets

Brief ceasefire collapses by July's end

Covers 3 related markets

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

ResolvedUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)$98,354 tracked24 signalsIranceasefirePeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x IranIran Ceasefire
Yes
53¢
No
47¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
57¢
29¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2h ago

$1,075 on Yes at 50¢

50¢53¢3¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2h ago

$2,929 on Yes at 53¢

53¢53¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2h ago

$1,854 on Yes at 50¢

50¢53¢3¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2h ago

$2,287 on Yes at 50¢

50¢53¢3¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

11h ago

$1,562 on Yes at 50¢

50¢53¢3¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

11h ago

$6,872 on No at 52¢

52¢47¢5¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

12h ago

$2,965 on Yes at 50¢

50¢53¢3¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

17h ago

$2,858 on No at 80¢

80¢47¢33¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

1d ago

$1,708 on Yes at 50¢

50¢53¢3¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

1d ago

$1,500 on Yes at 49¢

49¢53¢4¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

1d ago

$2,409 on Yes at 50¢

50¢53¢3¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

1d ago

$1,046 on Yes at 50¢

50¢53¢3¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2d ago

$1,551 on Yes at 17¢

17¢53¢36¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2d ago

$5,027 on Yes at 17¢

17¢53¢36¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2d ago

$13,007 on No at 72¢

72¢47¢25¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2d ago

$1,050 on No at 81¢

81¢47¢34¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2d ago

$9,449 on Yes at 22¢

22¢53¢31¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2d ago

$10,900 on No at 80¢

80¢47¢33¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

2d ago

$4,000 on No at 81¢

81¢47¢34¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

7d ago

$3,000 on No at 86¢

86¢47¢39¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

7d ago

$2,640 on Yes at 17¢

17¢53¢36¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

7d ago

$2,490 on Yes at 17¢

17¢53¢36¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

7d ago

$1,515 on No at 86¢

86¢47¢39¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

1d ago

$14,659 on No at 50¢

50¢47¢3¢

Related Theses

World Cup favorites prevail
Wallet_0x9c987 trades 4 related markets
Will England win the 2026 FIFA…Will France win the 2026 FIFA …Will Argentina win the 2026 FI…
Someone else wins Peru presidency
Wallet_0xc7e53 trades 3 related markets
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino …Will Keiko Fujimori win the 20…Will Rafael López Aliaga win t…
Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0x8c66e trades 5 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Israel airspace closures will be temporary
Wallet_0x9592a trades 5 related markets
Israel closes its airspace by …Israel closes its airspace by …Israel closes its airspace by …
Trump lifts blockade by April
Wallet_0x9592a trades 8 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran closure comes early or late
Wallet_0x9592a trades 3 related markets
Iran full airspace closure by …Iran full airspace closure by …Iran full airspace closure by …
US-Iran peace deal unlikely
Wallet_0x9c987 trades 2 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
No early June deal
Wallet_0x8c66e trades 2 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran deal after mid-June
Wallet_0x9592a trades 3 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Brief ceasefire collapses by July's end
Wallet_0x8c66e trades 3 related markets
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …