Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
This Polymarket market asks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a mutually agreed ceasefire agreement by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if both countries officially announce a suspension of direct military engagement, or if credible reporting confirms mutual agreement; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $1,120 in smart money activity across 1 signal, including alerts from serial geopolitics and cross-market traders.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,885.
Categories: Ukraine Peace Deal, Politics, Ukraine, Russia, putin, Geopolitics, zelensky, Trump, zelenskyy
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitics market, making the wallet track record the main signal despite modest size.
- This bettor is up $384k across $2.8M invested, with 1,061 resolved bets.
- They win 61% of resolved trades and have bet across 278 different events.
- They bought No at 56¢, backing no ceasefire agreement by the deadline.
$1,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Serial geopolitics trader
Serial cross-market bettor with a large positive lifetime P&L is taking a fresh No position on a plausible geopolitical market, though the sizing is moderate and the edge is not overwhelming.
- This bettor has traded across 27 events and is up about $320K lifetime.
- They have a deep track record with 834 resolved bets and a 62% win rate.
- The $2.75K No buy at 55¢ implies they see ceasefire odds below the market’s 44% Yes price.
$2,750 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader bought No on a geopolitically meaningful market, though the individual bet size is moderate.
- This bettor has a long record: 834 resolved markets, 62% wins, and $320K lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $428K tracked across 49 markets, suggesting a repeat thesis-driven style.
- Entry at 54¢ on No implies they see the ceasefire deadline as less likely than current market odds suggest.
$3,015 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Top Holders
- 0x6d9f...9790 — No, $10,584 (62% win rate)
- 0x2f03...ec6a — Yes, $9,092 (100% win rate)
- 0xa8b3...4484 — No, $4,901 (58% win rate)
- 0x1e0d...bd03 — Yes, $4,258
- 0x9f08...73a8 — Yes, $3,719 (81% win rate)
- 0x4c68...bee0 — No, $3,500
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $3,231 (47% win rate)
- 0x28c3...da06 — Yes, $3,000 (72% win rate)
- 0x8fe7...4f20 — No, $2,000 (61% win rate)
- 0xad52...11ac — No, $1,589 (35% win rate)
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