Part of: Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
34 smart money signals detected, totaling $239,788.
Categories: Geopolitics, Lebanon, Iran Ceasefire, Israel, Iran, Israel x Iran, Hezbollah, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Proven serial cross-market winner
A highly profitable 81% win-rate serial cross-market bettor bought Yes on a longshot geopolitical market at 12¢.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $590K lifetime.
- They have a long track record across 54 events and 158 markets, with $2.8M in cross-market volume.
- Buying Yes at 12¢ signals they see value in a longshot outcome that has already moved up this week.
$2,673 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Proven bettor buying No
Sharp-wallet override: a profitable 76% winner is effectively buying No on a geopolitical market despite only a weak new-wallet signal.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $31k lifetime.
- They effectively bought No at 88¢, betting against a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by June 2026.
- The wallet has been flagged 12 times historically, suggesting repeated notable positioning.
$1,667 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 71% win rate and $333k lifetime profit bought No into a geopolitics market seeing a volume spike.
- This bettor has won 71% of 90 resolved trades and is up $333k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 26 events with nearly $590k tracked volume.
- They bought No at 77¢ while this market is seeing an 11.9x volume spike.
$2,797 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable linked No buyer
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying No, with a linked wallet cluster adding about $20.6k total to the same thesis.
- This bettor has made over $1.1M lifetime across more than 1,300 resolved markets.
- Two linked wallets share a funder and have put about $20.6k behind the same No thesis.
- The trade buys No at 87¢, fading the recent move toward Yes on a major geopolitical market.
$11,648 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%
Proven bettor buying No
Sharp-wallet override: a profitable 76% winner is effectively buying No on a geopolitical market despite only a weak new-wallet signal.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $31k lifetime.
- They effectively bought No at 88¢, betting against a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by June 2026.
- The wallet has been flagged 12 times historically, suggesting repeated notable positioning.
$1,551 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
46-0 bettor buys YES
A 46-0 resolved-bet wallet made a $38k effective BUY Yes during a large volume spike and week-long price move in a plausible geopolitical information market.
- This bettor is 46-for-46 on resolved markets and is making a $38k effective bet on Yes.
- Market activity is surging, with volume running 48x above its historical average.
- Yes has already moved up about 10 points this week, so this trade is joining strong momentum.
$38,452 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
89% winner buying No
Sharp-wallet override: despite a weak alert score, this wallet has an 89% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L, now buying No at 88¢.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $5.4k lifetime.
- They bought $2,000 of No at 88¢, backing the view that no permanent peace deal happens by June 2026.
- The market is liquid, so the signal comes mainly from the bettor’s track record rather than market impact.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 71% win rate and $333k lifetime profit bought No into a geopolitics market seeing a volume spike.
- This bettor has won 71% of 90 resolved trades and is up $333k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 26 events with nearly $590k tracked volume.
- They bought No at 77¢ while this market is seeing an 11.9x volume spike.
$1,693 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable linked No buyer
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying No, with a linked wallet cluster adding about $20.6k total to the same thesis.
- This bettor has made over $1.1M lifetime across more than 1,300 resolved markets.
- Two linked wallets share a funder and have put about $20.6k behind the same No thesis.
- The trade buys No at 87¢, fading the recent move toward Yes on a major geopolitical market.
$10,643 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%
Profitable linked No buyer
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying No, with a linked wallet cluster adding about $20.6k total to the same thesis.
- This bettor has made over $1.1M lifetime across more than 1,300 resolved markets.
- Two linked wallets share a funder and have put about $20.6k behind the same No thesis.
- The trade buys No at 87¢, fading the recent move toward Yes on a major geopolitical market.
$10,482 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%
Top Holders
- 0xe7cb...d447 — Outcome 50529785, $285,619 (68% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 50529785, $234,914 (70% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Outcome 50529785, $89,867 (71% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 50529785, $76,533 (79% win rate)
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 50529785, $69,297 (67% win rate)
- 0x5109...5e9c — Outcome 50529785, $56,127 (40% win rate)
- 0x0562...9d66 — Outcome 50529785, $36,496 (40% win rate)
- 0xd109...6fa0 — Outcome 50529785, $27,842 (78% win rate)
- 0x711b...bcec — Outcome 50529785, $27,402 (84% win rate)
- 0xe234...304a — Outcome 50529785, $26,485 (69% win rate)
Related Theses
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
Iran deal in early June
Covers 9 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 13 related markets
No Iran deal by June
Covers 8 related markets
