Part of: Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Israel and Iran will agree to a permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026, resolving “Yes” only if the agreement clearly signals a lasting end to military hostilities. PolySpotter is tracking $4,696 in smart money activity across 1 signal, including alerts from profitable geopolitics and cross-market traders.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,628.
Categories: Geopolitics, Lebanon, Iran Ceasefire, Israel, Iran, Israel x Iran, Hezbollah
Notable Trades
Profitable serial geopolitics trader
Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes on a quiet Israel-Iran peace market with a $4.7k position.
- This bettor has won 68% of 911 resolved trades and is up about $145k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $234k placed across 42 markets in 29 events.
- The $4.7k trade is effectively a Yes buy at 15¢, larger than recent activity in this market.
$4,696 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable serial thesis trader
Serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history and positive P&L is taking a contrarian Yes position in a quiet geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 68% of 907 resolved trades and is up about $147k lifetime.
- They are taking the contrarian side, effectively buying Yes around 13¢ while the market sits near 12¢.
- The $2.9k trade is almost a full day’s volume in a quiet market, suggesting meaningful conviction.
$2,901 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with 906 resolved bets is buying No on a geopolitical market, though the edge appears modest because it is a high-probability favorite.
- This bettor has a long record: 906 resolved bets and $146K in lifetime profit.
- They regularly trade related event markets, with activity across 29 events and $212K flagged in cross-market positions.
- Buying No at 87¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet on no permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by the deadline.
$3,261 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No amid a large pre-event volume spike, aligning with recent odds movement away from Yes.
- This bettor has 905 resolved trades, a 68% win rate, and is up $145K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 29 events and $205K of related positions.
- Market activity spiked 328x above normal, while Yes odds have slipped 3 points in the last day.
$1,720 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
80% winner in funded cluster
Surface because this is a proven 80% winner with positive lifetime P&L, backed by a large funded-wallet cluster signal on a plausible geopolitical thesis.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades across 204 markets and is up $2,250 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 113 events with $75,527 total tracked volume.
- The wallet is part of an 11-wallet funded cluster, adding weight to the No position.
$1,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Top Holders
- 0xe7cb...d447 — Yes, $40,945 (79% win rate)
- 0x079f...28df — Yes, $20,712
- 0xce1d...1b9b — Yes, $20,000 (57% win rate)
- 0x8e5c...a68a — No, $18,784 (77% win rate)
- 0x3d3c...e797 — No, $14,548 (85% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — No, $12,009 (70% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Yes, $8,712 (39% win rate)
- 0x0845...6b6f — No, $7,237 (68% win rate)
- 0xd7a5...cdbf — No, $7,000
- 0x9d73...216b — Yes, $4,704 (74% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran peace deal in May
Covers 6 related markets
No Israel-Iran peace deal
Covers 1 related market
Hormuz traffic stays disrupted
Covers 1 related market
MicroStrategy won't sell Bitcoin
Covers 1 related market
Israel Iran peace deal happens
Covers 1 related market
U.S. will not invade Iran
Covers 1 related market
