Part of: Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

34 smart money signals detected, totaling $239,788.

Categories: Geopolitics, Lebanon, Iran Ceasefire, Israel, Iran, Israel x Iran, Hezbollah, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

Proven serial cross-market winner

A highly profitable 81% win-rate serial cross-market bettor bought Yes on a longshot geopolitical market at 12¢.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $590K lifetime.
  • They have a long track record across 54 events and 158 markets, with $2.8M in cross-market volume.
  • Buying Yes at 12¢ signals they see value in a longshot outcome that has already moved up this week.

$2,673 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Proven bettor buying No

Sharp-wallet override: a profitable 76% winner is effectively buying No on a geopolitical market despite only a weak new-wallet signal.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $31k lifetime.
  • They effectively bought No at 88¢, betting against a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by June 2026.
  • The wallet has been flagged 12 times historically, suggesting repeated notable positioning.

$1,667 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 71% win rate and $333k lifetime profit bought No into a geopolitics market seeing a volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 71% of 90 resolved trades and is up $333k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 26 events with nearly $590k tracked volume.
  • They bought No at 77¢ while this market is seeing an 11.9x volume spike.

$2,797 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable linked No buyer

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying No, with a linked wallet cluster adding about $20.6k total to the same thesis.

  • This bettor has made over $1.1M lifetime across more than 1,300 resolved markets.
  • Two linked wallets share a funder and have put about $20.6k behind the same No thesis.
  • The trade buys No at 87¢, fading the recent move toward Yes on a major geopolitical market.

$11,648 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%

Proven bettor buying No

Sharp-wallet override: a profitable 76% winner is effectively buying No on a geopolitical market despite only a weak new-wallet signal.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $31k lifetime.
  • They effectively bought No at 88¢, betting against a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by June 2026.
  • The wallet has been flagged 12 times historically, suggesting repeated notable positioning.

$1,551 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

46-0 bettor buys YES

A 46-0 resolved-bet wallet made a $38k effective BUY Yes during a large volume spike and week-long price move in a plausible geopolitical information market.

  • This bettor is 46-for-46 on resolved markets and is making a $38k effective bet on Yes.
  • Market activity is surging, with volume running 48x above its historical average.
  • Yes has already moved up about 10 points this week, so this trade is joining strong momentum.

$38,452 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

89% winner buying No

Sharp-wallet override: despite a weak alert score, this wallet has an 89% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L, now buying No at 88¢.

  • This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $5.4k lifetime.
  • They bought $2,000 of No at 88¢, backing the view that no permanent peace deal happens by June 2026.
  • The market is liquid, so the signal comes mainly from the bettor’s track record rather than market impact.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 71% win rate and $333k lifetime profit bought No into a geopolitics market seeing a volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 71% of 90 resolved trades and is up $333k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 26 events with nearly $590k tracked volume.
  • They bought No at 77¢ while this market is seeing an 11.9x volume spike.

$1,693 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable linked No buyer

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying No, with a linked wallet cluster adding about $20.6k total to the same thesis.

  • This bettor has made over $1.1M lifetime across more than 1,300 resolved markets.
  • Two linked wallets share a funder and have put about $20.6k behind the same No thesis.
  • The trade buys No at 87¢, fading the recent move toward Yes on a major geopolitical market.

$10,643 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%

Profitable linked No buyer

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying No, with a linked wallet cluster adding about $20.6k total to the same thesis.

  • This bettor has made over $1.1M lifetime across more than 1,300 resolved markets.
  • Two linked wallets share a funder and have put about $20.6k behind the same No thesis.
  • The trade buys No at 87¢, fading the recent move toward Yes on a major geopolitical market.

$10,482 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%

Top Holders

  1. 0xe7cb...d447 Outcome 50529785, $285,619 (68% win rate)
  2. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 50529785, $234,914 (70% win rate)
  3. 0x6139...6b7a Outcome 50529785, $89,867 (71% win rate)
  4. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 50529785, $76,533 (79% win rate)
  5. 0x7bc1...8db4 Outcome 50529785, $69,297 (67% win rate)
  6. 0x5109...5e9c Outcome 50529785, $56,127 (40% win rate)
  7. 0x0562...9d66 Outcome 50529785, $36,496 (40% win rate)
  8. 0xd109...6fa0 Outcome 50529785, $27,842 (78% win rate)
  9. 0x711b...bcec Outcome 50529785, $27,402 (84% win rate)
  10. 0xe234...304a Outcome 50529785, $26,485 (69% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran deal in early June

Covers 9 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

No Iran deal by June

Covers 8 related markets

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

ResolvedIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?$239,788 tracked34 signalsGeopoliticsLebanonIran CeasefireIsraelIranIsrael x IranHezbollahPeace Deal

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

31d ago

$2,673 on Yes at 12¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

31d ago

$1,667 on No at 88¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

31d ago

$2,797 on No at 77¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

32d ago

$11,648 on No at 87¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

32d ago

$1,551 on No at 88¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

32d ago

$38,452 on Yes at 15¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

33d ago

$2,000 on No at 88¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

33d ago

$1,693 on No at 77¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

33d ago

$10,643 on No at 87¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

33d ago

$10,482 on No at 87¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

33d ago

$2,472 on Yes at 22¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

34d ago

$3,847 on No at 77¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

35d ago

$1,425 on No at 88¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

36d ago

$9,012 on Yes at 12¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

36d ago

$4,597 on Yes at 12¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

37d ago

$8,148 on Yes at 9¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

37d ago

$3,050 on Yes at 7¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

37d ago

$9,746 on No at 88¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

32d ago

$36,192 on Yes at 11¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

37d ago

$1,049 on Yes at 5¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

45d ago

$1,152 on Yes at 6¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

47d ago

$2,720 on Yes at 7¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

51d ago

$2,939 on No at 84¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

52d ago

$7,619 on No at 82¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

52d ago

$1,431 on No at 82¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

53d ago

$1,480 on Yes at 18¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

53d ago

$18,244 on Yes at 17¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

53d ago

$10,224 on Yes at 17¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

59d ago

$17,206 on No at 88¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

59d ago

$4,696 on Yes at 15¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

61d ago

$2,901 on Yes at 13¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

62d ago

$3,261 on No at 87¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

63d ago

$1,720 on No at 86¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

66d ago

$1,050 on No at 84¢

Related Theses