Part of: What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities. The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil - The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
17 smart money signals detected, totaling $46,270.
Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Geopolitics, Iran, Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Uranium, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Negotiation Topics
Notable Trades
82% winner buying contrarian No
Sharp wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No against a strong Yes rally while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $51K lifetime.
- They are buying No at 10¢ after Yes surged 68 points this week, a clear contrarian bet.
- The wallet has placed $7.9K across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$2,381 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Profitable contrarian sharp
Sharp profitable wallet with a 79% resolved win rate is taking a contrarian No position after Yes rallied sharply.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $66.5K lifetime.
- They are buying No around 8¢ after Yes jumped 65 points this week, a clear contrarian bet.
- The wallet has placed $9.9K across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran-sanctions thesis.
$3,589 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
82% winner buying contrarian No
Sharp wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No against a strong Yes rally while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $51K lifetime.
- They are buying No at 10¢ after Yes surged 68 points this week, a clear contrarian bet.
- The wallet has placed $7.9K across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$1,209 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Proven serial macro bettor
Surfaced because a proven serial cross-market bettor with 406 resolved bets, 75% wins, and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes despite already-high odds.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $269K lifetime.
- They are highly experienced across related markets, with 172 markets traded and $8.35M in volume.
- Yes has strong momentum, up 64 percentage points this week, and they entered at 90¢.
$3,750 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
82% winner buying contrarian No
Sharp wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No against a strong Yes rally while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $51K lifetime.
- They are buying No at 10¢ after Yes surged 68 points this week, a clear contrarian bet.
- The wallet has placed $7.9K across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$1,543 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
93% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet with a 93% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying Yes despite an already-high 90¢ price, alongside cross-market positioning.
- This bettor has won 13 of 14 resolved bets and is up $37k lifetime.
- They are buying Yes at 90¢, adding conviction to a market that has jumped 18.5 points in 24 hours.
- The wallet has also positioned across related markets with $7.3k total exposure.
$2,723 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%
77% winner buying Yes
Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved-bet win rate is buying Yes amid strong recent momentum and cross-market positioning.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved bets and is up $35.8K lifetime.
- They have put about $21K across two related markets, suggesting a broader Iran-sanctions thesis.
- Entry at 65¢ is already working, with Yes now around 69¢ after a 43.5-point weekly move.
$1,269 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
77% winner buying Yes
Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved-bet win rate is buying Yes amid strong recent momentum and cross-market positioning.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved bets and is up $35.8K lifetime.
- They have put about $21K across two related markets, suggesting a broader Iran-sanctions thesis.
- Entry at 65¢ is already working, with Yes now around 69¢ after a 43.5-point weekly move.
$2,573 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
77% winner buying Yes
Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved-bet win rate is buying Yes amid strong recent momentum and cross-market positioning.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved bets and is up $35.8K lifetime.
- They have put about $21K across two related markets, suggesting a broader Iran-sanctions thesis.
- Entry at 65¢ is already working, with Yes now around 69¢ after a 43.5-point weekly move.
$3,503 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
New wallet riding sanction momentum
A 6-day-old wallet is repeatedly placing large bets and just bought $4.2k of Yes into strong momentum on a geopolitically plausible information market.
- A 6-day-old wallet has already put meaningful money to work, with $11.2k flagged across repeat large bets.
- This bet follows strong market momentum: Yes is up 15.5 points today and 47 points this week.
- Buying at 71¢ suggests the wallet is still willing to add after a major move higher.
$4,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
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