Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
24 smart money signals detected, totaling $220,093.
Categories: Politics, Middle East, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, US-Iran, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Diplomacy & Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Profitable new wallet buying No
A 5-day-old wallet with early profits repeatedly put $7.5k into No and got filled well below the current 95% price during a market-wide volume spike.
- This 5-day-old wallet is already up $1.2k and has won 5 of 6 resolved bets
- It bought $7.5k of No in four clips at 86-89¢, and the market is now 95¢
- The market saw a 15.4x volume spike, suggesting fresh conviction behind the move
$7,547 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Repeat new-wallet whale
A very new wallet has repeatedly placed large bets across multiple markets and just bought No on a fast-moving geopolitical market amid a major volume spike.
- This wallet is under 2 days old but has already triggered 6 large-bet alerts totaling $44.5k
- They bought No at 84¢ in a live geopolitics market that has seen a 14.8x volume spike
- The market is liquid and active, so this looks more like fresh conviction than a random punt
$2,552 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
88% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A highly profitable 88% win-rate bettor is making a fresh cross-market thesis bet on No in an active geopolitics market, and the price has already moved in their favor.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $393k overall
- They bought No at 81¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, and that price is already up to 88¢
- They have put about $9.4k across 3 related markets in the same event, pointing to a broader thesis
$2,436 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
88% win-rate event bettor
A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate is expressing the same event thesis across three related markets, and this trade converts to buying No around 79¢ in a market seeing strong fresh volume.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $393k lifetime
- They are betting across 3 related Iran-event markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade
- Selling Yes at 21¢ is equivalent to buying No at 79¢, while market volume is running 11.8x above normal
$1,704 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
88% winner across 127 markets
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate is taking a fresh low-priced Yes position across this event complex, making this a strong signal worth surfacing despite the modest ticket size.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $920k overall
- They've traded 127 markets across 77 events, including 4 related markets in this same event
- Buying Yes at 5¢ suggests they see the end-of-operations chance as meaningfully higher than the market price
$1,492 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
88% win-rate contrarian
A bettor with an 88% win rate and $387k profit is taking a fresh position on a low-probability outcome across related Iran-operation markets, which is notable despite the modest alert score.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $387k lifetime
- They bought a 9¢ Yes outcome, a small-priced bet that could pay big if the market is misreading the odds
- They are also active across related markets on the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a random punt
$1,763 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
83% win-rate event trader
A proven high-volume bettor with an 83% win rate is re-entering the same NO side as part of a 5-market event thesis, adding fresh conviction on a politically news-driven market.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades across 253 markets and has put over $1.0M into similar cross-market event bets.
- They bet across 5 related markets in this event with $91k total, which points to a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- This is a fresh re-entry into NO at 84¢, and the market has already moved toward them to 89¢.
$4,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
Profitable new wallet buying No
A profitable 8-day-old wallet added another sizable position into a market seeing a major volume spike, buying No at 79¢ before the market moved up to 86¢.
- This 8-day-old wallet is already up $36.9k and just made another $1,000 bet
- Market activity is running 29x above normal, suggesting traders are rushing into this headline-driven market
- They bought No at 79¢ and the market is now 86¢, so the trade is already moving their way
$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 43%
Sharp cross-market re-entry
A highly profitable 72% win-rate trader is re-entering the same side across multiple related Iran-operation markets, suggesting a durable thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This bettor has won 72% of 1,130 resolved bets and is up $213,726 lifetime.
- They have traded 4 related markets in this event for $33,172 total, showing a broader thesis rather than a single punt.
- This is a fresh re-entry on No after a prior closed position, buying again at 88¢ in a liquid market.
$2,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Proven event trader reloading
A highly active and profitable cross-market trader with a 72% win rate is re-entering this event complex by buying No at 88¢, suggesting continued conviction rather than random whale activity.
- This bettor has won 72% of 1,130 resolved trades and is up $213k lifetime.
- They have traded 306 markets across 131 events, including 4 markets in this same event for $35k total.
- This is a fresh No bet at 88¢ in a deep news market, showing renewed conviction after a prior round-trip on the same side.
$4,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Top Holders
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 50143980, $162,838 (88% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 50143980, $154,107 (70% win rate)
- 0x1d16...e798 — Outcome 50143980, $153,299 (8% win rate)
- 0x1cc1...b8df — Outcome 50143980, $108,377 (55% win rate)
- 0xecaa...77a9 — Outcome 43180685, $48,239 (68% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — Outcome 50143980, $44,531 (70% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 50143980, $38,814 (37% win rate)
- 0x14cf...c320 — Outcome 50143980, $33,609
- 0x9e5b...7796 — Outcome 50143980, $30,416
- 0xb933...ac19 — Outcome 50143980, $24,880
