This bettor wins 35 of 36 resolved markets and is up $17.7k overall. They just put $10k on No at 89¢, a large position in a major geopolitics market. They are also trading multiple markets tied to the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a random bet.

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $76,991.

Categories: Politics, Middle East, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, US-Iran, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Diplomacy & Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Profitable event-thesis bettor

A profitable high-volume bettor with a 71% win rate is expressing the same event thesis across 3 related markets, and this trade effectively buys Yes at 11¢.

This bettor has won 479 of 673 resolved trades and is up $463k overall
They have put nearly $24k across 3 related Iran-event markets, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off punt
This trade is effectively a buy on Yes at 11¢, meaning they think the market is underpricing the chance of an official end announcement

$4,826 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

97% win-rate bettor

A bettor with a 97% win rate is making a sizable $10k position on the likely No side in a major geopolitics market, which is worth following despite the market already pricing No as the favorite.

This bettor wins 35 of 36 resolved markets and is up $17.7k overall.
They just put $10k on No at 89¢, a large position in a major geopolitics market.
They are also trading multiple markets tied to the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a random bet.

$10,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

A new wallet has already put nearly $39k into No here and over $60k across related Iran-operation markets, showing concentrated event-level conviction despite limited history.

A 23-day-old wallet put $38.5k on No here and about $61k across 2 related Iran markets
This is a fresh position from a repeat large bettor, pointing to a clear event-level view rather than routine trading
The trader bought No at 74¢-87¢, which converts to buying Yes only below 26¢ if copying the opposite side isn't possible

$38,505 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate put $6.6k into Yes across this event, making this a strong thesis-driven bet worth following despite the liquid market.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $661k overall
They have traded 106 markets across 64 events, including 4 markets in this same event
Bought Yes at 26¢, suggesting they see the end-of-operations odds as meaningfully too low

$6,567 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

A repeat new wallet has already put $77.6k across related positions and just added a $14k bet on No in a news-driven geopolitical market, suggesting sustained conviction rather than a one-off punt.

This 26-day-old wallet has already triggered 7 large-bet alerts and put $77.6k to work
They bought $14k of No at 85¢ in a high-volume geopolitical market, showing strong conviction on the favored side
The wallet is also betting across 2 related markets in the same event, pointing to a broader thesis rather than a single trade

$14,006 on No | Wallet win rate: 50%

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

A very new wallet has already deployed nearly $200k across 15 flagged bets and is expressing a broader multi-market thesis on this event, making this a notable conviction trade despite no resolved track record yet.

This 7-day-old wallet has already made 15 flagged bets totaling about $192k
It has bet nearly $22k across 3 related Iran-operation markets, suggesting a coordinated event view
This trade bought No at 57¢, a sizable fresh position in a high-volume news market

$3,087 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%