Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
This prediction market tracks whether the U.S. will officially announce a new diplomatic agreement, peace framework, or extension of a ceasefire with Iran by the June 13 deadline. PolySpotter is tracking $2,889 in smart money and 1 signal, with recent alerts including profitable Iran and cross-market geopolitical bettors. The market resolves Yes only if a qualifying official U.S. announcement confirms the ceasefire will continue; otherwise it resolves No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,921.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Sharp 85% winner betting NO
Sharp wallet with an 85% resolved win rate and $51k lifetime profit is taking a NO position across related Iran agreement markets.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $51,436 lifetime.
- They have $29,051 positioned across two related markets, pointing to a broader NO thesis.
- Entry at 83¢ implies a high-conviction bet against a qualifying U.S.-Iran announcement by the deadline.
$2,889 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a No position as part of a broader 10-market Iran-event thesis totaling $55.5k.
- This bettor is up $367k lifetime across 898 resolved bets.
- They have traded 85 related event markets before, with $747k total volume and a 62% win rate.
- This No buy is part of a larger 10-market thesis totaling $55.5k on the same event.
$1,037 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Profitable cross-market Iran bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is expressing a broader Iran-event thesis, with 10 related positions totaling $56k and this trade buying No at 84¢.
- This bettor is up $367k lifetime across nearly 900 resolved bets.
- They have a broad event thesis, with $56k placed across 10 related markets.
- Buying No at 84¢ aligns with current market odds but comes from a consistently profitable political-event trader.
$1,894 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Profitable cross-market whale
Profitable high-volume wallet is building a broader cross-market thesis, buying Yes at 17¢ after positioning across 7 related Iran-agreement markets.
- This bettor is up $1.25M lifetime despite trading across more than 1,600 resolved markets.
- They have placed $35K across 7 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 17¢ is now marked around 20¢, so the market has already moved in their direction.
$1,899 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 48%
Profitable whale’s Iran thesis
A large, profitable wallet is expressing a coordinated Iran-agreement thesis across 7 related markets, with this Yes buy already moving from 15¢ to 20¢.
- This bettor is up $1.25M lifetime and has traded over $83M on Polymarket.
- They have built a $35K position across 7 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 15¢ is already in profit with the market now around 20¢.
$3,201 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 48%
Top Holders
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $32,467 (48% win rate)
- 0x9a3f...914a — Yes, $20,150 (57% win rate)
- 0xab19...4876 — No, $15,314 (59% win rate)
- 0x6d9f...9790 — No, $9,218 (62% win rate)
- 0xc96c...6a98 — No, $7,455 (85% win rate)
- 0x0652...9134 — No, $7,344 (70% win rate)
- 0x7712...0c28 — Yes, $6,646 (44% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — No, $5,592
- 0x15fb...252d — No, $5,555 (55% win rate)
- 0x6000...f302 — No, $5,000
Related Theses
Iran deal lands late June
Covers 5 related markets
No Iran deal or extension
Covers 2 related markets
