Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

22 smart money signals detected, totaling $128,963.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

88% winner buying long-shot YES

A highly proven profitable wallet with an 88% win rate is buying the long-shot Yes side across related Iran agreement markets.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $241K lifetime.
  • They have placed $8.5K across 4 related markets, suggesting a clear event-level thesis.
  • Entry at 5¢ offers large upside if the U.S. announces a qualifying Iran agreement or ceasefire extension.

$1,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

Coordinated Yes cluster

High-score coordinated Yes buying across six wallets, including a profitable 79% bettor and broader cross-market Iran positioning, makes this worth surfacing despite mixed wallet quality.

  • A bettor who has won 79% of resolved bets and is up $31k joined the Yes side.
  • Six wallets bought the same long-shot outcome within minutes, totaling $8.7k.
  • The cluster paid about 16¢ on average, while the market has fallen back to 8¢.

$8,663 on Yes

Five-wallet YES cluster

A five-wallet cluster bought Yes into a sharp price move, with one profitable 79% bettor and a larger cross-market Iran-event position adding conviction.

  • Five wallets bought the same Yes outcome for $7.2k, helping push the price up about 20 percentage points.
  • The strongest wallet in the group wins 79% of resolved bets and is up $31k lifetime.
  • This flow is part of a broader related-market thesis, with $51k across 5 markets in the same event.

$7,222 on Yes

Profitable new whale buys NO

A profitable two-week-old wallet made a large repeat bet on No amid a major volume spike in a geopolitics market.

  • A two-week-old wallet put $51.6K on No and is already up $11.6K across prior positions.
  • This is the wallet’s second large flagged bet, totaling $71.6K, suggesting repeat conviction rather than a one-off trade.
  • Market volume is surging 35.9x above normal while Yes has fallen 6.5% in the past day.

$51,594 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Serial geopolitical sharp

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved-bet win rate and $240k profit is buying No across a broader Iran-event thesis despite a recent market volume spike.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved bets and is up $240k lifetime across 397 outcomes.
  • They are active across 9 related markets with $332k in total exposure, suggesting a broader No-leaning thesis.
  • They bought No at 90¢, while the market is now around 78¢, offering a cheaper entry than the sharp paid.

$2,930 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Serial geopolitical sharp

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved-bet win rate and $240k profit is buying No across a broader Iran-event thesis despite a recent market volume spike.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved bets and is up $240k lifetime across 397 outcomes.
  • They are active across 9 related markets with $332k in total exposure, suggesting a broader No-leaning thesis.
  • They bought No at 90¢, while the market is now around 78¢, offering a cheaper entry than the sharp paid.

$6,824 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

96% serial cross-market winner

Elite 96% lifetime winner with massive cross-market history bought No despite a liquid market, supported by an event-wide volume spike.

  • This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $286K lifetime across $66M invested.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 299 events and 561 markets.
  • They bought No at 84¢ while volume was spiking 11.7x above the historical average.

$2,065 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Profitable cross-market specialist

Profitable 76% winner is extending a $60k cross-market No thesis across nine related markets.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $36.9k lifetime.
  • They have placed $60k across 9 related markets, showing a broad No-side thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • This buy at 88¢ matches the current market favorite, suggesting confidence in a high-probability outcome.

$6,947 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

97% serial cross-market bettor

A highly proven serial cross-market trader with a 97% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a geopolitical market while also positioning across a related market.

  • This bettor has won 97% of 1,799 resolved trades and is up $38.7K lifetime.
  • They have a long cross-market track record, trading 102 markets across 88 events.
  • They bought $4.4K of No at 89¢, matching the current market favorite but with proven execution history.

$4,450 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

Recurring 5-wallet cluster

A profitable high-volume wallet from a recurring 5-wallet funded cluster is buying No on a geopolitics market, though the position size is modest versus market volume.

  • This bettor has a long record: 598 resolved trades, 71% wins, and $35.5K in profit.
  • The wallet belongs to a 5-wallet funded cluster that has appeared in prior runs, suggesting repeated coordinated positioning.
  • They bought No at 88¢ as the market moved further against Yes over the last day.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbc8c...273f Outcome 18090371, $203,703 (74% win rate)
  2. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 18090371, $183,727 (73% win rate)
  3. 0x12df...6a3d Outcome 18090371, $135,852 (63% win rate)
  4. 0x0e7a...8ba1 Outcome 18090371, $61,625
  5. 0xd109...6fa0 Outcome 18090371, $58,611 (80% win rate)
  6. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 18090371, $58,352 (76% win rate)
  7. 0xc9a9...4898 Outcome 18090371, $56,350
  8. 0x1682...26ca Outcome 18090371, $43,017 (68% win rate)
  9. 0x6bab...1292 Outcome 18090371, $41,854 (57% win rate)
  10. 0xa87d...e4bf Outcome 18090371, $41,458 (63% win rate)

Related Theses

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WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran deal lands late June

Covers 5 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

ResolvedUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?$128,963 tracked22 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranU.S. x IranPeace Deal

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

Notable Trades

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

56d ago

$1,800 on Yes at 5¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

56d ago

$8,663 on Yes at 16¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

56d ago

$7,222 on Yes at 15¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

56d ago

$51,594 on No at 89¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

56d ago

$2,930 on No at 90¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

56d ago

$6,824 on No at 90¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

56d ago

$2,065 on No at 84¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

57d ago

$6,947 on No at 88¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

57d ago

$4,450 on No at 89¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

57d ago

$2,000 on No at 88¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

57d ago

$2,007 on No at 88¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

57d ago

$1,321 on No at 87¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

57d ago

$2,000 on No at 82¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

57d ago

$10,000 on No at 80¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

57d ago

$5,862 on No at 78¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

57d ago

$1,337 on No at 74¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

58d ago

$1,020 on Yes at 23¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

58d ago

$2,889 on No at 83¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

58d ago

$1,037 on No at 83¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

58d ago

$1,894 on No at 84¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

58d ago

$1,899 on Yes at 17¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

58d ago

$3,201 on Yes at 15¢

Related Theses