Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
22 smart money signals detected, totaling $128,963.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
88% winner buying long-shot YES
A highly proven profitable wallet with an 88% win rate is buying the long-shot Yes side across related Iran agreement markets.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $241K lifetime.
- They have placed $8.5K across 4 related markets, suggesting a clear event-level thesis.
- Entry at 5¢ offers large upside if the U.S. announces a qualifying Iran agreement or ceasefire extension.
$1,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
Coordinated Yes cluster
High-score coordinated Yes buying across six wallets, including a profitable 79% bettor and broader cross-market Iran positioning, makes this worth surfacing despite mixed wallet quality.
- A bettor who has won 79% of resolved bets and is up $31k joined the Yes side.
- Six wallets bought the same long-shot outcome within minutes, totaling $8.7k.
- The cluster paid about 16¢ on average, while the market has fallen back to 8¢.
$8,663 on Yes
Five-wallet YES cluster
A five-wallet cluster bought Yes into a sharp price move, with one profitable 79% bettor and a larger cross-market Iran-event position adding conviction.
- Five wallets bought the same Yes outcome for $7.2k, helping push the price up about 20 percentage points.
- The strongest wallet in the group wins 79% of resolved bets and is up $31k lifetime.
- This flow is part of a broader related-market thesis, with $51k across 5 markets in the same event.
$7,222 on Yes
Profitable new whale buys NO
A profitable two-week-old wallet made a large repeat bet on No amid a major volume spike in a geopolitics market.
- A two-week-old wallet put $51.6K on No and is already up $11.6K across prior positions.
- This is the wallet’s second large flagged bet, totaling $71.6K, suggesting repeat conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- Market volume is surging 35.9x above normal while Yes has fallen 6.5% in the past day.
$51,594 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Serial geopolitical sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved-bet win rate and $240k profit is buying No across a broader Iran-event thesis despite a recent market volume spike.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved bets and is up $240k lifetime across 397 outcomes.
- They are active across 9 related markets with $332k in total exposure, suggesting a broader No-leaning thesis.
- They bought No at 90¢, while the market is now around 78¢, offering a cheaper entry than the sharp paid.
$2,930 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Serial geopolitical sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved-bet win rate and $240k profit is buying No across a broader Iran-event thesis despite a recent market volume spike.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved bets and is up $240k lifetime across 397 outcomes.
- They are active across 9 related markets with $332k in total exposure, suggesting a broader No-leaning thesis.
- They bought No at 90¢, while the market is now around 78¢, offering a cheaper entry than the sharp paid.
$6,824 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
96% serial cross-market winner
Elite 96% lifetime winner with massive cross-market history bought No despite a liquid market, supported by an event-wide volume spike.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $286K lifetime across $66M invested.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 299 events and 561 markets.
- They bought No at 84¢ while volume was spiking 11.7x above the historical average.
$2,065 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable 76% winner is extending a $60k cross-market No thesis across nine related markets.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $36.9k lifetime.
- They have placed $60k across 9 related markets, showing a broad No-side thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This buy at 88¢ matches the current market favorite, suggesting confidence in a high-probability outcome.
$6,947 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
97% serial cross-market bettor
A highly proven serial cross-market trader with a 97% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a geopolitical market while also positioning across a related market.
- This bettor has won 97% of 1,799 resolved trades and is up $38.7K lifetime.
- They have a long cross-market track record, trading 102 markets across 88 events.
- They bought $4.4K of No at 89¢, matching the current market favorite but with proven execution history.
$4,450 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
Recurring 5-wallet cluster
A profitable high-volume wallet from a recurring 5-wallet funded cluster is buying No on a geopolitics market, though the position size is modest versus market volume.
- This bettor has a long record: 598 resolved trades, 71% wins, and $35.5K in profit.
- The wallet belongs to a 5-wallet funded cluster that has appeared in prior runs, suggesting repeated coordinated positioning.
- They bought No at 88¢ as the market moved further against Yes over the last day.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Top Holders
- 0xbc8c...273f — Outcome 18090371, $203,703 (74% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 18090371, $183,727 (73% win rate)
- 0x12df...6a3d — Outcome 18090371, $135,852 (63% win rate)
- 0x0e7a...8ba1 — Outcome 18090371, $61,625
- 0xd109...6fa0 — Outcome 18090371, $58,611 (80% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 18090371, $58,352 (76% win rate)
- 0xc9a9...4898 — Outcome 18090371, $56,350
- 0x1682...26ca — Outcome 18090371, $43,017 (68% win rate)
- 0x6bab...1292 — Outcome 18090371, $41,854 (57% win rate)
- 0xa87d...e4bf — Outcome 18090371, $41,458 (63% win rate)
Related Theses
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
Iran deal lands late June
Covers 5 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
