Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
This prediction market tracks whether the U.S. will officially announce a new Iran peace agreement, ceasefire framework, diplomatic agreement, or extension of a halt in direct military engagement by the May 31, 2026 deadline. PolySpotter is tracking $4,883 in smart money and 3 smart money signals, including activity from profitable wallets on both Yes and No positions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $228,783.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
82% winner buying No
Sharp, highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought No at 71¢ alongside one-sided No flow from 5 wallets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $520K lifetime.
- They are a proven cross-market trader, active across 50 events and $2.1M in similar positioning.
- Five wallets bought the same No side, totaling $9.4K in one-sided flow.
$1,278 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
82% winner buying No
A highly profitable 82% win-rate trader is buying No alongside one-sided flow and a broader cross-market thesis on the Iran event.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $694k lifetime.
- They have traded 64 markets across 26 events with an 82% win rate, suggesting a repeatable edge.
- Five wallets are all buying No, with about $9.4k moving the same direction.
$1,273 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Five-wallet No flow
Coordinated one-sided No buying across 5 wallets on a high-attention Iran ceasefire market, with the featured wallet profitable so far and price momentum moving against Yes.
- Five wallets bought the same No side, totaling $9.4k in coordinated flow.
- The featured wallet is 5-for-5 on resolved bets and up $5.8k so far.
- Yes has dropped 13 points today, matching the direction of this No buying.
$2,716 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable cross-market Yes bettor
High-scoring alert from a profitable 75% lifetime bettor, backed by 12-wallet one-sided Yes flow and repeated cross-market positioning on the same event.
- This bettor has won 75% of 362 resolved bets and is up $227K lifetime.
- 12 wallets are all buying Yes, totaling $26.8K in the same direction.
- The wallet has traded 145 markets across 84 events, with $7.3M in prior cross-market activity.
$1,024 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
75% winner joins 12-wallet Yes flow
A proven 75% winner is buying Yes alongside a 12-wallet one-sided flow on a high-volume geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 75% of 703 resolved trades and is up $22.7K lifetime.
- 12 wallets are all buying Yes, totaling $26.8K in same-direction flow.
- Entry at 34¢ is already ahead of the current 38¢ market price.
$1,347 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable trader joins Yes cluster
A profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes at 37¢ alongside 12-wallet one-sided Yes flow totaling $26.8k on a geopolitics market.
- A seasoned bettor with $150k lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes at 37¢.
- 12 wallets are all betting the same way, with $26.8k of Yes-side flow.
- The trade comes in a high-volume geopolitics market where coordinated direction is more meaningful than size alone.
$2,512 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with 929 resolved trades is making a large $44.9k No bet aligned with recent market momentum.
- This bettor has won 64% of 929 resolved trades and is up $1.46M lifetime.
- They have traded 93 related markets across 56 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- The $44.9k No buy follows a sharp move toward No, with Yes down 29.5% in the last day.
$44,866 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable cross-market No bettor
Profitable wallet is taking a sizable, repeated cross-market No position across three related Iran markets, aligning with sharp recent market momentum.
- This bettor is up $16.5K lifetime and has won 14 of 21 resolved bets.
- They have put $26.8K across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The market has moved strongly toward No, with Yes down 26 points in the past day.
$9,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
New wallet scaling into No
Very new wallet is repeatedly making sizable No bets across related Iran agreement markets, aligned with a sharp 24h move toward No.
- A 2-day-old wallet has made 4 flagged large bets totaling $16.8k on this thesis.
- The market is already moving the same way, with Yes down 23 points in 24 hours.
- This is a high-conviction No entry at 85¢ on a major geopolitical market.
$4,000 on No
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large track record is buying No across the Iran ceasefire event, making this a copy-worthy directional thesis.
- This bettor is up $1.46M lifetime across 929 resolved bets.
- They have traded 56 related events and are now positioned across 3 markets in this event.
- Buying No at 83¢ follows a sharp 22-point one-day move against Yes.
$6,858 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $183,456 (64% win rate)
- 0x0eaa...c521 — Yes, $106,007 (41% win rate)
- 0xe36f...cd91 — Yes, $100,000 (92% win rate)
- 0xe541...d45d — Yes, $67,000 (45% win rate)
- 0xf9c1...39e2 — No, $66,773 (100% win rate)
- 0xeed5...1a33 — No, $60,475 (87% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — No, $57,307 (72% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — No, $53,095 (82% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $50,444 (81% win rate)
- 0x68c2...1711 — Yes, $42,062 (57% win rate)
