Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
This prediction market covers whether the U.S. officially announces a new Iran agreement, ceasefire framework, diplomatic agreement, or extension that keeps a halt on direct military engagement with Iran by May 31 at 11:59 PM ET. PolySpotter is tracking $1,540 in smart money activity and 1 signal for this market, with recent alerts showing both Yes and No sharp-buyer interest. The market resolves Yes only if a qualifying official U.S. announcement is made by the deadline; otherwise it resolves No.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $436,973.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
89% win-rate serial trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved win rate is re-entering Yes at 8¢ after a major selloff.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $256K lifetime.
- They have traded across 80 events and 137 markets, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying Yes at 8¢ after a 75% weekly drop implies a high-upside contrarian position.
$1,540 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
89% serial cross-market bettor
Sharp wallet override: a profitable 89% win-rate serial cross-market trader is buying Yes at 12¢ despite the market falling sharply.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $256K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 80 events and $3.3M tracked volume.
- Entry at 12¢ is a contrarian Yes bet after the market dropped 32.5 points today.
$2,159 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Profitable cross-market NO whale
A profitable wallet is making a $23k re-entry on No as part of a $40k cross-market Iran thesis, with price momentum supporting the move.
- This bettor has won 65% of resolved trades and is up about $5.9k lifetime.
- They have put $40k across 3 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader No thesis.
- This $23k No buy follows a 12-point move against Yes, adding with momentum behind the trade.
$23,060 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 70% record is adding a $5.2k No position as the market moves against Yes.
- This bettor wins 70% of resolved trades across 430 markets and is up $134k lifetime.
- They have traded 7 related markets in this event, with $33k positioned across the theme.
- Buying No at 85¢ lines up with recent momentum, after Yes fell 10 points over the past day.
$5,201 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a No position while also betting across related Iran-event markets, with recent price momentum supporting the same direction.
- This bettor has traded 92 markets across 59 events and is up $216K lifetime.
- They are betting across 3 related markets in this event, with $12K positioned so far.
- The market has moved toward No over the last day, and they entered No at 85¢.
$4,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Perfect-start wallet buying YES
Repeat newly flagged wallet with a 6-for-6 resolved record is taking a cross-market bullish position on a plausible geopolitics news market.
- This repeat bettor is 6-for-6 on resolved trades and up $6.5K so far.
- They put $5.9K behind Yes here while also trading 3 related Iran markets.
- Selling No at 84–85¢ is effectively buying Yes around 15.6¢.
$5,910 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Sharp cross-market Iran bettor
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $531k profit is effectively buying Yes at 15¢ as part of a larger cross-market Iran thesis.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $531,686 lifetime.
- They have traded 8 related markets in this event, with $73,461 positioned across the same thesis.
- Selling No at 85¢ is effectively buying Yes at 15¢, a contrarian bet after Yes fell 12.5 points today.
$2,550 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable cross-market bettor
A profitable serial cross-market trader with 1,064 resolved bets is adding a $12.9k No position while also positioning across related Iran-ceasefire markets.
- This bettor has 1,064 resolved trades, wins 67% of them, and is up $216k lifetime.
- They are betting across 3 related markets with $20.7k total exposure, suggesting a clear No thesis.
- The market has already moved toward No by 12 points in the past day, matching this trader’s direction.
$12,855 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable cross-market No bettor
Profitable 75% winner is making another cross-market No bet after previously trading this Iran event successfully, with market momentum moving the same way.
- This bettor has won 75% of 106 resolved bets and is up $30.7k lifetime.
- They have placed over $119k across related Iran markets with an 89% hit rate in that event cluster.
- They are buying No at 84¢ as Yes has fallen 13.5 points over the past day.
$2,936 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Sharp cross-market Iran bettor
Sharp wallet with an 88% resolved win rate and positive P&L is making a large cross-market bet against a U.S.-Iran agreement announcement.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $100K lifetime.
- They have put $120K across 3 related markets, including $47K on No here.
- Buying No at 82¢ aligns with recent momentum, with Yes down 11.5% in the last day.
$47,154 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Top Holders
- 0xc884...e17e — Outcome 11068545, $136,583 (100% win rate)
- 0x0eaa...c521 — Outcome 11068545, $106,007 (41% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 11068545, $79,277 (80% win rate)
- 0x134a...9e42 — Outcome 11068545, $76,228 (88% win rate)
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Outcome 11068545, $61,285 (88% win rate)
- 0x8d7a...276f — Outcome 11068545, $17,210 (13% win rate)
- 0xad26...589c — Outcome 11068545, $15,000 (35% win rate)
- 0x5ae3...f978 — Outcome 11068545, $13,393
- 0x5bee...56c4 — Outcome 11068545, $12,318
- 0xf3b5...4c72 — Outcome 11068545, $11,907 (33% win rate)
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