Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

This prediction market covers whether the U.S. officially announces a new Iran agreement, ceasefire framework, diplomatic agreement, or extension that keeps a halt on direct military engagement with Iran by May 31 at 11:59 PM ET. PolySpotter is tracking $1,540 in smart money activity and 1 signal for this market, with recent alerts showing both Yes and No sharp-buyer interest. The market resolves Yes only if a qualifying official U.S. announcement is made by the deadline; otherwise it resolves No.

50 smart money signals detected, totaling $436,973.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

89% win-rate serial trader

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved win rate is re-entering Yes at 8¢ after a major selloff.

  • This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $256K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 80 events and 137 markets, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying Yes at 8¢ after a 75% weekly drop implies a high-upside contrarian position.

$1,540 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

89% serial cross-market bettor

Sharp wallet override: a profitable 89% win-rate serial cross-market trader is buying Yes at 12¢ despite the market falling sharply.

  • This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $256K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 80 events and $3.3M tracked volume.
  • Entry at 12¢ is a contrarian Yes bet after the market dropped 32.5 points today.

$2,159 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Profitable cross-market NO whale

A profitable wallet is making a $23k re-entry on No as part of a $40k cross-market Iran thesis, with price momentum supporting the move.

  • This bettor has won 65% of resolved trades and is up about $5.9k lifetime.
  • They have put $40k across 3 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader No thesis.
  • This $23k No buy follows a 12-point move against Yes, adding with momentum behind the trade.

$23,060 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 70% record is adding a $5.2k No position as the market moves against Yes.

  • This bettor wins 70% of resolved trades across 430 markets and is up $134k lifetime.
  • They have traded 7 related markets in this event, with $33k positioned across the theme.
  • Buying No at 85¢ lines up with recent momentum, after Yes fell 10 points over the past day.

$5,201 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Profitable cross-market trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a No position while also betting across related Iran-event markets, with recent price momentum supporting the same direction.

  • This bettor has traded 92 markets across 59 events and is up $216K lifetime.
  • They are betting across 3 related markets in this event, with $12K positioned so far.
  • The market has moved toward No over the last day, and they entered No at 85¢.

$4,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Perfect-start wallet buying YES

Repeat newly flagged wallet with a 6-for-6 resolved record is taking a cross-market bullish position on a plausible geopolitics news market.

  • This repeat bettor is 6-for-6 on resolved trades and up $6.5K so far.
  • They put $5.9K behind Yes here while also trading 3 related Iran markets.
  • Selling No at 84–85¢ is effectively buying Yes around 15.6¢.

$5,910 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Sharp cross-market Iran bettor

Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $531k profit is effectively buying Yes at 15¢ as part of a larger cross-market Iran thesis.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $531,686 lifetime.
  • They have traded 8 related markets in this event, with $73,461 positioned across the same thesis.
  • Selling No at 85¢ is effectively buying Yes at 15¢, a contrarian bet after Yes fell 12.5 points today.

$2,550 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable cross-market bettor

A profitable serial cross-market trader with 1,064 resolved bets is adding a $12.9k No position while also positioning across related Iran-ceasefire markets.

  • This bettor has 1,064 resolved trades, wins 67% of them, and is up $216k lifetime.
  • They are betting across 3 related markets with $20.7k total exposure, suggesting a clear No thesis.
  • The market has already moved toward No by 12 points in the past day, matching this trader’s direction.

$12,855 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable cross-market No bettor

Profitable 75% winner is making another cross-market No bet after previously trading this Iran event successfully, with market momentum moving the same way.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 106 resolved bets and is up $30.7k lifetime.
  • They have placed over $119k across related Iran markets with an 89% hit rate in that event cluster.
  • They are buying No at 84¢ as Yes has fallen 13.5 points over the past day.

$2,936 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Sharp cross-market Iran bettor

Sharp wallet with an 88% resolved win rate and positive P&L is making a large cross-market bet against a U.S.-Iran agreement announcement.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $100K lifetime.
  • They have put $120K across 3 related markets, including $47K on No here.
  • Buying No at 82¢ aligns with recent momentum, with Yes down 11.5% in the last day.

$47,154 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc884...e17e Outcome 11068545, $136,583 (100% win rate)
  2. 0x0eaa...c521 Outcome 11068545, $106,007 (41% win rate)
  3. 0xde7b...5f4b Outcome 11068545, $79,277 (80% win rate)
  4. 0x134a...9e42 Outcome 11068545, $76,228 (88% win rate)
  5. 0xc84f...e0c5 Outcome 11068545, $61,285 (88% win rate)
  6. 0x8d7a...276f Outcome 11068545, $17,210 (13% win rate)
  7. 0xad26...589c Outcome 11068545, $15,000 (35% win rate)
  8. 0x5ae3...f978 Outcome 11068545, $13,393
  9. 0x5bee...56c4 Outcome 11068545, $12,318
  10. 0xf3b5...4c72 Outcome 11068545, $11,907 (33% win rate)

Related Theses

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Hormuz deadlines are mispriced

Covers 4 related markets

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

355dUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?$436,973 tracked50 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranU.S. x Iran

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

Notable Trades

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

10d ago

$1,540 on Yes at 8¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

10d ago

$2,159 on Yes at 12¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

10d ago

$23,060 on No at 87¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

10d ago

$5,201 on No at 85¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

10d ago

$4,250 on No at 85¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$5,910 on Yes at 16¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$2,550 on Yes at 15¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$12,855 on No at 86¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$2,936 on No at 84¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$47,154 on No at 82¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$6,400 on No at 80¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$15,183 on No at 79¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$1,386 on Yes at 23¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$1,170 on Yes at 22¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$3,080 on Yes at 23¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$7,594 on No at 76¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$2,045 on Yes at 25¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$2,970 on Yes at 26¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$2,310 on No at 77¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$3,078 on No at 77¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$1,332 on No at 74¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$51,050 on No at 75¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$1,136 on No at 71¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$5,000 on Yes at 39¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$1,408 on No at 75¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$7,907 on No at 75¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$1,917 on No at 75¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$1,382 on Yes at 31¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$1,118 on No at 56¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$1,544 on Yes at 49¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$1,500 on No at 55¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$1,415 on Yes at 53¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$2,737 on Yes at 52¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$58,955 on Yes at 55¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$1,149 on Yes at 25¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

11d ago

$2,920 on Yes at 27¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

12d ago

$3,650 on Yes at 27¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

12d ago

$1,500 on Yes at 25¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

12d ago

$31,033 on No at 75¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

12d ago

$1,836 on No at 74¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

12d ago

$72,800 on No at 70¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

12d ago

$5,000 on No at 70¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

12d ago

$3,920 on No at 69¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

12d ago

$4,830 on No at 69¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

12d ago

$3,143 on Yes at 31¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

12d ago

$1,242 on No at 69¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

12d ago

$3,650 on Yes at 30¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

12d ago

$1,136 on No at 71¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

12d ago

$5,922 on Yes at 28¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

12d ago

$2,010 on No at 67¢

Related Theses