Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
12 smart money signals detected, totaling $51,438.
Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Six-wallet funded cluster backing No
A six-wallet funded cluster and serial cross-market trader are positioning against Yes, creating a meaningful coordinated No signal despite modest trade size.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are connected to this positioning, a stronger signal than a lone trade.
- This trader has acted across 37 events and 56 markets, with a 66% win rate and $92,945 lifetime profit.
- Selling Yes at 49¢ is equivalent to buying No at 51¢, while the market currently prices No near 46¢.
$2,344 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
93% winner scaling into No
A highly profitable serial trader with a 93% win rate is adding $10,000 to an existing No position at 67 cents.
- This bettor has won 93% of 46 resolved trades and earned $123,984 in profit.
- They are adding $10,000 to an existing No position, showing continued conviction that the ceasefire will not last.
- The trade spans a serial cross-market record covering 29 events and $510,708 in volume.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Profitable serial event trader buys Yes
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with 332 resolved bets and $693K profit bought Yes at 56¢, though the edge is moderate.
- This bettor has won 75% of 332 resolved bets and is up $693,127 overall.
- They have traded 212 markets across 79 events and recently positioned across four markets in this event.
- The Yes entry was 56¢, while the market is now around 53%, offering a potentially favorable price if the thesis holds.
$1,057 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable serial event trader buys Yes
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with 332 resolved bets and $693K profit bought Yes at 56¢, though the edge is moderate.
- This bettor has won 75% of 332 resolved bets and is up $693,127 overall.
- They have traded 212 markets across 79 events and recently positioned across four markets in this event.
- The Yes entry was 56¢, while the market is now around 53%, offering a potentially favorable price if the thesis holds.
$2,141 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
93% winner scaling into No
A highly profitable serial trader with a 93% win rate is adding $10,000 to an existing No position at 67 cents.
- This bettor has won 93% of 46 resolved trades and earned $123,984 in profit.
- They are adding $10,000 to an existing No position, showing continued conviction that the ceasefire will not last.
- The trade spans a serial cross-market record covering 29 events and $510,708 in volume.
$1,509 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Profitable serial event trader buys Yes
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with 332 resolved bets and $693K profit bought Yes at 56¢, though the edge is moderate.
- This bettor has won 75% of 332 resolved bets and is up $693,127 overall.
- They have traded 212 markets across 79 events and recently positioned across four markets in this event.
- The Yes entry was 56¢, while the market is now around 53%, offering a potentially favorable price if the thesis holds.
$2,370 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Six-wallet funded cluster backing No
A six-wallet funded cluster and serial cross-market trader are positioning against Yes, creating a meaningful coordinated No signal despite modest trade size.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are connected to this positioning, a stronger signal than a lone trade.
- This trader has acted across 37 events and 56 markets, with a 66% win rate and $92,945 lifetime profit.
- Selling Yes at 49¢ is equivalent to buying No at 51¢, while the market currently prices No near 46¢.
$1,973 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Proven bettor scales into No
A proven bettor with 127 resolved trades and a substantial positive edge is adding to an existing No position despite the market being near even odds.
- This bettor wins 80% of 127 resolved trades and is up nearly $200,000.
- They are adding $2,360 to an existing No position, raising their exposure to over $13,000.
- No is priced near 48%, while the bettor’s history suggests this is a meaningful directional position rather than a routine trade.
$2,360 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Three-wallet ceasefire conviction
Three experienced wallets added $20.7K to Yes positions, including a $15.6K purchase, while the market has risen 20% over the past week.
- Three wallets collectively bought $20,714 of Yes, with the largest bettor committing $15,588 at 62¢.
- All three were adding to existing Yes positions, signaling increased conviction rather than routine one-off trading.
- Yes has climbed 20% in a week to 68%, and the purchases represent roughly one-third of displayed liquidity.
$20,714 on Yes
93% winner scaling into No
A highly profitable serial trader with a 93% win rate is adding $10,000 to an existing No position at 67 cents.
- This bettor has won 93% of 46 resolved trades and earned $123,984 in profit.
- They are adding $10,000 to an existing No position, showing continued conviction that the ceasefire will not last.
- The trade spans a serial cross-market record covering 29 events and $510,708 in volume.
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
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