Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
12 smart money signals detected, totaling $51,438.
Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Six-wallet funded cluster backing No
A six-wallet funded cluster and serial cross-market trader are positioning against Yes, creating a meaningful coordinated No signal despite modest trade size.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are connected to this positioning, a stronger signal than a lone trade.
- This trader has acted across 37 events and 56 markets, with a 66% win rate and $92,945 lifetime profit.
- Selling Yes at 49¢ is equivalent to buying No at 51¢, while the market currently prices No near 46¢.
$2,344 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
93% winner scaling into No
A highly profitable serial trader with a 93% win rate is adding $10,000 to an existing No position at 67 cents.
- This bettor has won 93% of 46 resolved trades and earned $123,984 in profit.
- They are adding $10,000 to an existing No position, showing continued conviction that the ceasefire will not last.
- The trade spans a serial cross-market record covering 29 events and $510,708 in volume.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Profitable serial event trader buys Yes
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with 332 resolved bets and $693K profit bought Yes at 56¢, though the edge is moderate.
- This bettor has won 75% of 332 resolved bets and is up $693,127 overall.
- They have traded 212 markets across 79 events and recently positioned across four markets in this event.
- The Yes entry was 56¢, while the market is now around 53%, offering a potentially favorable price if the thesis holds.
$1,057 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable serial event trader buys Yes
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with 332 resolved bets and $693K profit bought Yes at 56¢, though the edge is moderate.
- This bettor has won 75% of 332 resolved bets and is up $693,127 overall.
- They have traded 212 markets across 79 events and recently positioned across four markets in this event.
- The Yes entry was 56¢, while the market is now around 53%, offering a potentially favorable price if the thesis holds.
$2,141 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
93% winner scaling into No
A highly profitable serial trader with a 93% win rate is adding $10,000 to an existing No position at 67 cents.
- This bettor has won 93% of 46 resolved trades and earned $123,984 in profit.
- They are adding $10,000 to an existing No position, showing continued conviction that the ceasefire will not last.
- The trade spans a serial cross-market record covering 29 events and $510,708 in volume.
$1,509 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Profitable serial event trader buys Yes
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with 332 resolved bets and $693K profit bought Yes at 56¢, though the edge is moderate.
- This bettor has won 75% of 332 resolved bets and is up $693,127 overall.
- They have traded 212 markets across 79 events and recently positioned across four markets in this event.
- The Yes entry was 56¢, while the market is now around 53%, offering a potentially favorable price if the thesis holds.
$2,370 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Six-wallet funded cluster backing No
A six-wallet funded cluster and serial cross-market trader are positioning against Yes, creating a meaningful coordinated No signal despite modest trade size.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are connected to this positioning, a stronger signal than a lone trade.
- This trader has acted across 37 events and 56 markets, with a 66% win rate and $92,945 lifetime profit.
- Selling Yes at 49¢ is equivalent to buying No at 51¢, while the market currently prices No near 46¢.
$1,973 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Proven bettor scales into No
A proven bettor with 127 resolved trades and a substantial positive edge is adding to an existing No position despite the market being near even odds.
- This bettor wins 80% of 127 resolved trades and is up nearly $200,000.
- They are adding $2,360 to an existing No position, raising their exposure to over $13,000.
- No is priced near 48%, while the bettor’s history suggests this is a meaningful directional position rather than a routine trade.
$2,360 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Three-wallet ceasefire conviction
Three experienced wallets added $20.7K to Yes positions, including a $15.6K purchase, while the market has risen 20% over the past week.
- Three wallets collectively bought $20,714 of Yes, with the largest bettor committing $15,588 at 62¢.
- All three were adding to existing Yes positions, signaling increased conviction rather than routine one-off trading.
- Yes has climbed 20% in a week to 68%, and the purchases represent roughly one-third of displayed liquidity.
$20,714 on Yes
93% winner scaling into No
A highly profitable serial trader with a 93% win rate is adding $10,000 to an existing No position at 67 cents.
- This bettor has won 93% of 46 resolved trades and earned $123,984 in profit.
- They are adding $10,000 to an existing No position, showing continued conviction that the ceasefire will not last.
- The trade spans a serial cross-market record covering 29 events and $510,708 in volume.
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 31798323, $84,348 (69% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 31798323, $56,753 (73% win rate)
- 0x53e5...6177 — Outcome 31798323, $50,000 (44% win rate)
- 0x6b7a...5930 — Outcome 31798323, $32,778
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Outcome 31798323, $23,000 (73% win rate)
- 0xaacb...90cb — Outcome 31798323, $21,225 (70% win rate)
- 0xc3db...0f98 — Outcome 31798323, $18,087 (45% win rate)
- 0x3b3d...b162 — Outcome 31798323, $15,360
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 31798323, $11,626 (52% win rate)
- 0xfd66...fb6d — Outcome 31798323, $8,000 (20% win rate)
Related Theses
Hormuz blockade persists
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 13 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
No US-Iran peace deal
Covers 4 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Covers 16 related markets
