Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

This prediction market tracks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a mutually agreed ceasefire by 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if both countries officially announce the agreement or credible reporting confirms mutual agreement; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter currently tracks $1,773 in smart money activity across 1 signal, including recent alerts on both Yes and No positioning.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,696.

Categories: Ukraine Peace Deal, Politics, Ukraine, Russia, putin, Geopolitics, zelensky, Trump, zelenskyy

Notable Trades

New repeat wallet on No

A 4-day-old repeat bettor with early profit is buying No on a plausible information-sensitive Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market.

  • This 4-day-old wallet is already up $803 and has made two flagged bets totaling $3.8k.
  • They are buying No at 71¢, leaning into the market’s 1-day move away from Yes.
  • The market is liquid enough to enter, but the wallet’s track record is still very short.

$1,773 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

87% winner buying Yes

Sharp wallet with an 87% historical win rate and strong lifetime profit bought Yes at 26¢ on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $184k lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 26¢, implying a potential ~3.8x payout if a ceasefire agreement happens.
  • The market has drifted down 6.5% this week, so this is a sharp bettor stepping into weakness.

$1,045 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A profitable, highly experienced cross-market trader with $228k lifetime P&L is buying No on a geopolitics market despite recent Yes momentum.

  • This bettor is up $228k lifetime across 659 resolved markets.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 156 events with a 61% win rate.
  • Buying No at 68¢ fades a 4-point one-day move toward Yes.

$2,550 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Experienced cross-market trader with positive lifetime P&L is buying Yes on a politics/war market with a bet that outweighed recent activity.

  • This trader is up about $75.7k lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved bets.
  • They are a heavy cross-market bettor, with 47 events and $462k tracked in related positioning.
  • This $4.3k Yes buy was larger than the market’s recent 24h activity flagged by the alert.

$4,328 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 55%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa2c6...757b Yes, $24,945 (100% win rate)
  2. 0x48ee...008c Yes, $10,112 (38% win rate)
  3. 0xd426...334a Yes, $9,091 (43% win rate)
  4. 0xd44e...67e2 No, $9,024 (61% win rate)
  5. 0x5cd5...ac33 No, $7,945 (93% win rate)
  6. 0x4bbe...2cf3 No, $7,777 (78% win rate)
  7. 0x66d7...5b7b Yes, $7,107 (88% win rate)
  8. 0xab19...4876 No, $5,904 (59% win rate)
  9. 0x9ca1...13b5 No, $5,766 (59% win rate)
  10. 0xda3f...c282 No, $5,000

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US-Iran talks won't happen

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

195dRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?$9,696 tracked4 signalsUkraine Peace DealPoliticsUkraineRussiaputinGeopoliticszelenskyTrumpzelenskyy
Yes
27¢
No
74¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
75¢
67¢
59¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

3h ago

$1,773 on No at 71¢

71¢74¢3¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

10d ago

$1,045 on Yes at 26¢

26¢27¢1¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

13d ago

$2,550 on No at 68¢

68¢74¢6¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

13d ago

$4,328 on Yes at 32¢

32¢27¢5¢

Related Theses