Part of: Iran full airspace closure by...?

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

11 smart money signals detected, totaling $102,708.

Categories: U.S. x Iran, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, close

Notable Trades

91% winner buys NO

Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 91% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite only a weak new-wallet signal.

  • This bettor has won 91% of resolved trades and is up about $12k lifetime.
  • They have been flagged 17 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 89¢ signals confidence that a full Iran airspace closure does not happen by the deadline.

$4,229 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved-bet win rate is backing No at 88¢, though the stake is modest in a liquid market.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $853K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 195 related markets in 72 events, suggesting a practiced cross-market strategy.
  • Entry at 88¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet that pays out if Iran does not fully close its airspace.

$1,153 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved-bet win rate is backing No at 88¢, though the stake is modest in a liquid market.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $853K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 195 related markets in 72 events, suggesting a practiced cross-market strategy.
  • Entry at 88¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet that pays out if Iran does not fully close its airspace.

$4,005 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved-bet win rate is backing No at 88¢, though the stake is modest in a liquid market.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $853K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 195 related markets in 72 events, suggesting a practiced cross-market strategy.
  • Entry at 88¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet that pays out if Iran does not fully close its airspace.

$1,607 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable cross-market whale

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader placed a large $72.9k No bet amid an 81x volume spike, making this a strong copy-trade candidate despite the market being fairly liquid.

  • This bettor has 987 resolved bets and is up $1.0M lifetime.
  • They put $72.9k on No, nearly 83% of the market’s 24h volume.
  • Volume spiked 81x as this serial cross-market trader positioned across two related markets.

$72,881 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

93% winner bought early

A highly profitable 93% win-rate wallet bought Yes at 13¢ alongside cross-market positioning and a sharp price move upward.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $100k lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 13¢ before the market jumped to 38¢, showing strong timing.
  • The same wallet has $15k positioned across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$4,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

93% winner bought early

A highly profitable 93% win-rate wallet bought Yes at 13¢ alongside cross-market positioning and a sharp price move upward.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $100k lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 13¢ before the market jumped to 38¢, showing strong timing.
  • The same wallet has $15k positioned across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$1,333 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

93% winner bought early

A highly profitable 93% win-rate wallet bought Yes at 13¢ alongside cross-market positioning and a sharp price move upward.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $100k lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 13¢ before the market jumped to 38¢, showing strong timing.
  • The same wallet has $15k positioned across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$2,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

91% winner buys NO

Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 91% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite only a weak new-wallet signal.

  • This bettor has won 91% of resolved trades and is up about $12k lifetime.
  • They have been flagged 17 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 89¢ signals confidence that a full Iran airspace closure does not happen by the deadline.

$1,384 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

81% winner buys NO

Sharp wallet override: a profitable 81% winner bought $4.4k of No on a geopolitical airspace market while also trading a related event market.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $53k lifetime.
  • They put $4.4k on No at 81¢ in a market with only $12k liquidity.
  • They are also trading a related Iran airspace market, suggesting a broader thesis.

$5,182 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 52963494, $69,844 (70% win rate)
  2. 0xfd66...fb6d Outcome 52963494, $60,000 (22% win rate)
  3. 0x86e9...4cdf Outcome 52963494, $32,337 (92% win rate)
  4. 0x0b13...5957 Outcome 52963494, $30,135
  5. 0xef14...c335 Outcome 52963494, $19,181 (60% win rate)
  6. 0x7e52...00f5 Outcome 52963494, $17,514 (79% win rate)
  7. 0x9592...a7b8 Outcome 52963494, $16,106 (93% win rate)
  8. 0x0d05...6a81 Outcome 52963494, $10,447 (14% win rate)
  9. 0x97ea...3363 Outcome 52963494, $10,386 (70% win rate)
  10. 0x758c...074a Outcome 52963494, $5,092 (14% win rate)

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran surrenders uranium in May

Covers 4 related markets

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

ResolvedIran full airspace closure by...?$102,708 tracked11 signalsU.S. x IranIsrael x IranIran CeasefireIranclose

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

5d ago

$4,229 on No at 89¢

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

8d ago

$1,153 on No at 88¢

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

8d ago

$4,005 on No at 88¢

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

9d ago

$1,607 on No at 88¢

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

15d ago

$72,881 on No at 87¢

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

15d ago

$4,000 on Yes at 13¢

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

15d ago

$1,333 on Yes at 13¢

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

15d ago

$2,500 on Yes at 13¢

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

16d ago

$1,384 on No at 89¢

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

20d ago

$5,182 on No at 81¢

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

20d ago

$4,434 on No at 81¢

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 16 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Crude oil market arbitrage
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 5 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Hormuz blockade persists
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 9 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 12 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 8 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 13 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran surrenders uranium in May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…