Part of: Iran full airspace closure by...?
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
11 smart money signals detected, totaling $102,708.
Categories: U.S. x Iran, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, close
Notable Trades
91% winner buys NO
Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 91% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite only a weak new-wallet signal.
- This bettor has won 91% of resolved trades and is up about $12k lifetime.
- They have been flagged 17 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 89¢ signals confidence that a full Iran airspace closure does not happen by the deadline.
$4,229 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved-bet win rate is backing No at 88¢, though the stake is modest in a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $853K lifetime.
- They have traded across 195 related markets in 72 events, suggesting a practiced cross-market strategy.
- Entry at 88¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet that pays out if Iran does not fully close its airspace.
$1,153 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved-bet win rate is backing No at 88¢, though the stake is modest in a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $853K lifetime.
- They have traded across 195 related markets in 72 events, suggesting a practiced cross-market strategy.
- Entry at 88¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet that pays out if Iran does not fully close its airspace.
$4,005 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved-bet win rate is backing No at 88¢, though the stake is modest in a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $853K lifetime.
- They have traded across 195 related markets in 72 events, suggesting a practiced cross-market strategy.
- Entry at 88¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet that pays out if Iran does not fully close its airspace.
$1,607 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable cross-market whale
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader placed a large $72.9k No bet amid an 81x volume spike, making this a strong copy-trade candidate despite the market being fairly liquid.
- This bettor has 987 resolved bets and is up $1.0M lifetime.
- They put $72.9k on No, nearly 83% of the market’s 24h volume.
- Volume spiked 81x as this serial cross-market trader positioned across two related markets.
$72,881 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
93% winner bought early
A highly profitable 93% win-rate wallet bought Yes at 13¢ alongside cross-market positioning and a sharp price move upward.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $100k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 13¢ before the market jumped to 38¢, showing strong timing.
- The same wallet has $15k positioned across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$4,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
93% winner bought early
A highly profitable 93% win-rate wallet bought Yes at 13¢ alongside cross-market positioning and a sharp price move upward.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $100k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 13¢ before the market jumped to 38¢, showing strong timing.
- The same wallet has $15k positioned across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$1,333 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
93% winner bought early
A highly profitable 93% win-rate wallet bought Yes at 13¢ alongside cross-market positioning and a sharp price move upward.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $100k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 13¢ before the market jumped to 38¢, showing strong timing.
- The same wallet has $15k positioned across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$2,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
91% winner buys NO
Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 91% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite only a weak new-wallet signal.
- This bettor has won 91% of resolved trades and is up about $12k lifetime.
- They have been flagged 17 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 89¢ signals confidence that a full Iran airspace closure does not happen by the deadline.
$1,384 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
81% winner buys NO
Sharp wallet override: a profitable 81% winner bought $4.4k of No on a geopolitical airspace market while also trading a related event market.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $53k lifetime.
- They put $4.4k on No at 81¢ in a market with only $12k liquidity.
- They are also trading a related Iran airspace market, suggesting a broader thesis.
$5,182 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Top Holders
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 52963494, $69,844 (70% win rate)
- 0xfd66...fb6d — Outcome 52963494, $60,000 (22% win rate)
- 0x86e9...4cdf — Outcome 52963494, $32,337 (92% win rate)
- 0x0b13...5957 — Outcome 52963494, $30,135
- 0xef14...c335 — Outcome 52963494, $19,181 (60% win rate)
- 0x7e52...00f5 — Outcome 52963494, $17,514 (79% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Outcome 52963494, $16,106 (93% win rate)
- 0x0d05...6a81 — Outcome 52963494, $10,447 (14% win rate)
- 0x97ea...3363 — Outcome 52963494, $10,386 (70% win rate)
- 0x758c...074a — Outcome 52963494, $5,092 (14% win rate)
Related Theses
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Covers 16 related markets
Crude oil market arbitrage
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WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Hormuz blockade persists
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 13 related markets
Iran surrenders uranium in May
Covers 4 related markets