Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

18 smart money signals detected, totaling $146,856.

Categories: Israel, World, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, Politics, Middle East, U.S. x Iran, Military Strikes

Notable Trades

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate bought No in a major geopolitics market, making this worth watching despite only one moderate-strength signal.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades across 244 bets and is up $133k lifetime
They have traded 64 markets across 46 events, which suggests a repeatable macro and news-driven process
They bought No at 86¢ in a deep geopolitics market, a high-conviction favorite price on the U.S.-Iran invasion question

$3,470 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

A proven high-volume trader with a 75% win rate sold No at 86¢ on a geopolitics market and the price has already moved in their favor to 79¢.

This bettor has won 75% of 244 resolved trades and is up $134.6k lifetime
They sold No at 86¢ for $17.2k, and No is already down to 79¢ after their trade
This wallet has traded 64 markets across 46 events, showing a repeatable cross-market edge rather than a one-off bet

$17,247 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

A proven high-volume trader with a 75% win rate sold No at 86¢ on a geopolitics market and the price has already moved in their favor to 79¢.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades across 244 bets and has made $134.6k
They sold No at 86¢ on a major geopolitics market, and No is already down to 79¢
This wallet trades across 64 related markets and 46 events, which suggests a repeatable event-driven edge

$7,715 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

A high-volume cross-market trader with a 75% win rate sold No at 85¢ in a major geopolitics market, a sizable contrarian bet that has already moved in their favor.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades across 244 bets and is up about $134k
They sold nearly $9.8k of No at 85¢, effectively backing Yes at a much better price than the market now offers
The price has already moved from 85¢ to 79¢ on No, so this position is already in the money

$9,828 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

A high-volume trader with a 75% win rate across 244 resolved bets sold No at 85¢ in a major geopolitics market, a fresh bearish move that has already moved in their favor.

This bettor wins 75% of their trades across 244 resolved markets and is up about $134k
They sold No at 85¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, implying they think the 15% Yes price was too low
The market is now 79¢ No, so this trade has already moved 6 points in their favor

$8,191 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 75% win rate sold No at 88¢ in a geopolitical market that has since moved to 79%, suggesting strong directional timing on a meaningful event.

This bettor has won 183 of 244 resolved trades and is up about $134k lifetime
They sold No at 88¢, which is effectively a bullish bet on Yes at 12¢, and the market has already moved to 21% Yes
They trade across 64 markets in 46 events with over $3.0M deployed, so this looks more like a repeatable thesis than a random punt

$4,317 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

A proven high-volume bettor with a 74% win rate bought No in a major geopolitics market during a sharp volume surge, making this a credible thesis trade despite paying a rich 89¢ entry.

This bettor has won 664 of 902 resolved trades and is up about $141.8k overall
They trade heavily across related events — 79 events and 162 markets suggest a repeatable macro news process
This buy came during a 28x volume spike, showing they were willing to pay 89¢ for No before the market dropped to 79¢

$3,857 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

A high-volume geopolitical trade from a proven 75% winner with activity across 46 related events is worth surfacing despite the rich 87¢ entry, especially as it coincides with an unusual volume surge.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $133.8k across 244 settled markets
They trade across related news markets at scale: 46 events, 64 markets, and $3.0M deployed
A $22.7k buy hit during a 42x volume spike, showing real conviction even in a very active market

$22,691 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong 75% hit rate and $133k profit just bought No at 80¢ in a major geopolitics market, making this a credible follow despite only one signal firing.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $133k across 244 settled bets
They have traded 64 markets across 46 related events with nearly $3.0M deployed, suggesting a repeatable macro process
The new buy is $10.6k on No at 80¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, showing meaningful conviction rather than a tiny flyer

$10,607 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

A proven high-volume bettor with a 75% win rate and $133k profit is buying No in a major geopolitics market at 79¢, making this worth watching despite only one moderate-strength signal.

This bettor has won 183 of 244 resolved trades and is up $133k overall
They trade heavily across related events — 63 markets across 46 events for nearly $3.0M total
They bought No at 79¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, backing the base case with real size

$4,597 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%