US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026. It resolves Yes only if an authorized, deliberate meeting on US-Iran relations takes place before the deadline; indirect contacts and unofficial interactions do not count. PolySpotter is currently tracking $7,527 in smart money activity on this market, with recent signals highlighting notable interest on the No side.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

21 smart money signals detected, totaling $130,962.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

New whale buying NO

A new wallet with repeat large bets and early profits just put $7.5k into No on a headline-sensitive geopolitics market, helping push the price sharply higher.

  • This new wallet has already been flagged twice, has 4 positions, and is up $1.4k so far
  • They just put $7.5k into No at 89¢ on a geopolitics market and the price jumped fast right after
  • The market is liquid enough to matter, so this looks more like conviction on the thesis than a random punt

$7,527 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

86% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate and $1.26M P&L is taking a fresh Yes position in a geopolitics market at 16¢.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $1.26M lifetime.
  • They have traded 153 related markets across 97 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven edge.
  • Bought Yes at 16¢, a low entry that implies they see the market as meaningfully underpriced.

$2,199 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

90% win-rate event trader

A 90% win-rate wallet is making a coordinated cross-market geopolitical bet, buying No at 89¢ on a liquid US-Iran meeting market after a fast price move.

  • This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 175 bets and is trading 7 related markets in the same event
  • They bought No at 89¢, implying they see the chance of a meeting staying below 11%
  • The move fits a broader $57k cross-market thesis, which is more meaningful than a one-off bet

$1,765 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

90% win-rate thesis trader

A high-accuracy cross-market trader with a 90% win rate is adding to a 7-market geopolitical thesis by buying No after a sharp move, making this a credible signal worth surfacing.

  • This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 175 bets and is betting across 7 related markets in the same event.
  • They bought No at 78¢ right after a fast 16.5-point move, suggesting conviction that this diplomatic meeting still will not happen.
  • The market is large and active, so this looks more like a sharp thesis bet than random activity in a thin market.

$7,779 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

85% win-rate event trader

A highly profitable wallet with an 85% win rate is trading across many related Iran event markets, and this sell converts into a fresh BUY No around 65¢ in a fast-moving news-sensitive market.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $415k across nearly 200 settled bets
  • They have been trading 10 related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet
  • This sale of Yes at 35¢ is equivalent to buying No at 65¢ in a market that is up 25 points today

$1,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

85% win-rate event specialist

A highly profitable 85% win-rate trader with over $400k in realized P&L is re-entering the Yes side as part of a much larger 10-market event thesis across this topic.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $410k lifetime.
  • They have bet $66k across 10 related markets in this same event, which points to a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off punt.
  • This is a fresh re-entry on Yes at 44¢ after closing an earlier position, with the market still near that level.

$1,412 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

82% win-rate thesis trader

Profitable wallet with an 82% win rate is expressing the same geopolitical thesis across three related markets, adding a notable $3.6k No position after a sharp move.

  • This bettor wins 82% of their resolved trades and is up $15.3k overall
  • They have put $16.6k across 3 related US-Iran markets, which points to a broader event thesis rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought No at 55¢ after this market moved 33 points in a day, suggesting they still see the meeting as less likely than the market implies

$3,587 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

82% winner buying No

Profitable cross-market trader with an 82% win rate bought No aggressively into a major volume spike, and the market has already moved 10 points in their favor.

  • This bettor wins 82% of their resolved markets and is up $15.3k overall.
  • They bought No at 62¢ during a 34x volume spike, and the market is now 52¢ on No.
  • The same wallet is betting across 3 related markets with about $20.4k total, suggesting a broader event thesis.

$7,378 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

85% win-rate event specialist

A proven 85% win-rate trader with strong cross-market event history is flipping into the Yes side here via a sell of No, making this a credible thesis-driven trade worth watching.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $410k lifetime.
  • They have traded 8 markets tied to this same event for $61.7k total, which suggests a broader informed thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Selling No at 69¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 31¢, close to the current 32¢ market price.

$1,725 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

85% win-rate event trader

A proven high-win-rate trader with deep event-level history is rotating into the bullish side of this Iran diplomacy market via an effective Yes buy around 35¢.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $410k lifetime.
  • They have traded 78 markets across 35 related events, suggesting a repeatable edge in news-driven markets.
  • Their sell of No at 65¢ is effectively a buy of Yes at 35¢, well above the current 29¢ market price.

$1,170 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

Top Holders

  1. 0xecaa...77a9 Yes, $40,092 (68% win rate)
  2. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $38,534 (47% win rate)
  3. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $32,126 (70% win rate)
  4. 0xeed5...1a33 No, $24,913 (67% win rate)
  5. 0x25db...28de Yes, $23,682 (51% win rate)
  6. 0xc266...2f2f Yes, $23,495 (33% win rate)
  7. 0x91a6...554c No, $17,971 (100% win rate)
  8. 0x10e1...aa05 Yes, $15,669
  9. 0xd519...932c Yes, $15,555
  10. 0x5969...5bed No, $14,770 (90% win rate)

Related Theses

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

5h$130,962 tracked21 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
1¢
No
99¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
101¢
80¢
58¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

3h ago

$7,527 on No at 89¢

89¢99¢10¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

3h ago

$2,199 on Yes at 16¢

16¢1¢15¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

4h ago

$1,765 on No at 89¢

89¢99¢10¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

5h ago

$7,779 on No at 78¢

78¢99¢21¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

1d ago

$1,050 on No at 65¢

65¢99¢34¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

1d ago

$1,412 on Yes at 44¢

44¢1¢43¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

1d ago

$3,587 on No at 55¢

55¢99¢44¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

1d ago

$7,378 on No at 62¢

62¢99¢37¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

1d ago

$1,725 on Yes at 31¢

31¢1¢30¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

1d ago

$1,170 on Yes at 35¢

35¢1¢34¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

21h ago

$69,664 on No at 80¢

80¢99¢19¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

1d ago

$5,798 on Yes at 44¢

44¢1¢43¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

1d ago

$1,320 on Yes at 12¢

12¢1¢11¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

2d ago

$1,063 on No at 90¢

90¢99¢9¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

2d ago

$4,099 on No at 85¢

85¢99¢14¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

2d ago

$3,400 on No at 85¢

85¢99¢14¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

2d ago

$1,059 on No at 84¢

84¢99¢15¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

2d ago

$1,625 on No at 84¢

84¢99¢15¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

2d ago

$1,001 on Yes at 24¢

24¢1¢23¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

2d ago

$4,000 on No at 81¢

81¢99¢18¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

2d ago

$2,341 on No at 73¢

73¢99¢26¢

Related Theses

US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Odds on Polymarket | PolySpotter