Part of: What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $15,519.

Categories: Iran, Sanctions, toll, Iran Ceasefire, Trump, Strait of Hormuz, Enrich, Geopolitics, Politics, U.S. x Iran, Uranium

Notable Trades

80% winner buying NO

A profitable 80% winner is adding a cross-market geopolitical thesis by buying No near 88¢, aligned with recent market momentum.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $1,022 lifetime.
  • They have $3,615 positioned across two related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 88¢ aligns with recent movement, with Yes down 8.5 points over the past week.

$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

92% winner buying Yes

Sharp wallet with a 92% historical win rate bought Yes on a geopolitics market that has already moved sharply upward.

  • This bettor has won 60 of 65 resolved trades and is up about $9.5k lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 54¢ after a major move, with the market up 38 points in the last day.
  • Entry at 54¢ implies they still see value despite the recent momentum.

$1,174 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

84% winner flips to Yes

Sharp wallet with an 84% win rate and $446k profit flipped from No to buying Yes amid a major 1-day price surge and cross-market positioning.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $446k lifetime.
  • They closed a prior No position and are now buying Yes at 69¢, signaling a clear thesis flip.
  • The market has surged 54 points in 24 hours, and this wallet is also active across related markets.

$1,377 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

84% winner flips Yes

Sharp wallet with an 84% resolved win rate and $446k lifetime profit bought Yes after previously closing a No position, amid major upward price momentum.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $446k lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 59¢ after closing a prior No position, suggesting a clear thesis shift.
  • The market has moved hard toward Yes, up 47.5 points in one day, and this entry is already in profit.

$1,278 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% long-run win rate is buying No despite recent Yes momentum.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 708 resolved bets and is up $370K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 577 markets with $1.9M total deployed.
  • Buying No at 58¢ goes against a sharp recent Yes move, suggesting a contrarian view on the Iran-assets headline.

$1,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

84% winner buying Yes

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 84% resolved win rate and +$435k lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes on a geopolitical market.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $435k lifetime.
  • They are a proven cross-market trader, active across 112 markets with $1.6M traded.
  • Selling No at 87¢ is the same as buying Yes at 13¢, slightly above the current 12¢ odds.

$1,306 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

77% serial cross-market winner

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 77% win rate is buying No despite recent Yes momentum on a policy market.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved bets and is up $310k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 34 events and 39 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • The $4k No buy fades a recent Yes rally, with entry around 78¢.

$4,020 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% record and $310k profit is buying No on a geopolitics market with meaningful recent movement.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 99 resolved bets and is up $310k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $408k placed across 34 events.
  • Buying No at 76¢ shows they are fading the recent Yes move despite Yes rising about 11 points this week.

$2,168 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A long-running profitable cross-market trader with 1,460 resolved bets and +$197k lifetime P&L bought No on a geopolitical market.

  • This bettor has a large track record: 1,460 resolved bets and about $197k in lifetime profit.
  • They repeatedly trade related markets, with activity across 154 event groups and $1.5M flagged in this pattern.
  • Buying No at 85¢ fits the market’s current 86% No pricing, with odds moving 5 points toward this side today.

$1,496 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc040...beac Outcome 10192582, $21,683 (45% win rate)
  2. 0x02a1...dd72 Outcome 10192582, $5,032
  3. 0x1e1f...c855 Outcome 10192582, $5,000 (57% win rate)
  4. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 10192582, $4,544 (69% win rate)
  5. 0xb51b...b4d9 Outcome 10192582, $4,099 (61% win rate)
  6. 0x4a2b...af20 Outcome 10192582, $4,000 (45% win rate)
  7. 0x80a0...5708 Outcome 10192582, $2,767 (36% win rate)
  8. 0x131a...73f9 Outcome 10192582, $2,766 (64% win rate)
  9. 0x0042...321e Outcome 10192582, $2,432 (47% win rate)
  10. 0x066a...550d Outcome 10192582, $2,067 (60% win rate)

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Iran deal by May

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Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

ResolvedWhat Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?$15,519 tracked9 signalsIranSanctionstollIran CeasefireTrumpStrait of HormuzEnrichGeopoliticsPoliticsU.S. x IranUranium

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets. The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets. - The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

Notable Trades

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

7d ago

$1,500 on No at 88¢

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

12d ago

$1,174 on Yes at 54¢

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

13d ago

$1,377 on Yes at 69¢

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

13d ago

$1,278 on Yes at 59¢

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

13d ago

$1,200 on No at 58¢

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

14d ago

$1,306 on Yes at 13¢

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

16d ago

$4,020 on No at 78¢

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

16d ago

$2,168 on No at 76¢

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

17d ago

$1,496 on No at 85¢

Related Theses