Part of: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $40,755.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Israel, Military, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Israel x Iran, Military Actions, Military Strikes
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader, seven-wallet cluster
A profitable, highly active cross-market trader is buying Yes alongside activity from seven commonly funded wallets, though the current trade itself is modest.
- This bettor is up $210,857 across 296 resolved trades and is active in 84 events.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder are linked to $2,511 of activity, while four markets in this event account for $48,466.
- The trade buys Yes at 89¢, near the current 88% market odds.
$3,230 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Profitable serial trader, seven-wallet cluster
A profitable, highly active cross-market trader is buying Yes alongside activity from seven commonly funded wallets, though the current trade itself is modest.
- This bettor is up $210,857 across 296 resolved trades and is active in 84 events.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder are linked to $2,511 of activity, while four markets in this event account for $48,466.
- The trade buys Yes at 89¢, near the current 88% market odds.
$2,511 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
New wallet betting on ceasefire
A new wallet sold No at 12¢ as No’s price broke sharply below its recorded range, a notable directional move despite the modest stake and lack of track record.
- A sharp price-impact signal marked No falling from its recorded 53¢ level to 12¢.
- The 18-hour-old wallet put $1,326 behind the move, but has no resolved positions to establish a track record.
$1,326 on Yes
Profitable bettor adding to Yes
A highly profitable bettor with a strong 34-bet record added about $25.8K to an already substantial Yes position.
- This bettor has won 71% of 34 resolved bets and is up $615K overall.
- They added about $25.8K to Yes while already holding a $26.6K position.
- The trades averaged about 77¢ per share, with the market currently near 79¢.
$25,843 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Proven sharp adding to Yes
A proven bettor with an 81% record and strong odds-adjusted performance is adding to an existing Yes position despite recent price weakness.
- This bettor has won 68 of 84 resolved positions and is up $88,970 overall.
- They added $3,333 to an existing Yes position at 75¢, even as the market fell 15% over the past day.
- Their historical average odds were 37%, well below their 81% win rate.
$3,333 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Serial cross-market trader adds Yes
An experienced serial cross-market trader is adding to Yes and has built $55.6k of exposure across five markets in the same event, though the wallet’s 71% win rate does not clearly exceed its typical entry odds.
- The trader has positioned $55,603 across five markets tied to this event, with activity also seen in prior scans.
- They added $4,512 to Yes at 83¢–86¢ and already hold a Yes position.
- The wallet has 676 resolved bets and is up $297,058, though its 71% win rate is not clearly above its typical 87¢ winning entry price.
$4,512 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Top Holders
- 0xda76...0aa2 — No, $46,054 (98% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — No, $42,844 (53% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — No, $32,258 (76% win rate)
- 0xfa87...c2a0 — No, $30,000
- 0x4923...adfc — No, $12,617
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — No, $11,597 (76% win rate)
- 0xf958...238c — No, $10,833
- 0x2c39...56dc — No, $10,409 (57% win rate)
- 0x5d63...2cbf — No, $10,000 (66% win rate)
- 0xe234...304a — No, $9,194 (66% win rate)
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