Part of: Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
This Polymarket asks whether Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf will sign a written agreement involving both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,118 in smart money activity, with recent alerts showing experienced traders buying the No side. The market resolves after the deadline, with the listed individual required to sign in an official capacity for a Yes outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,152.
Categories: Trump, Peace Deal, geopolitcs, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Politics
Notable Trades
79% winner buying NO
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has a 79% resolved-bet win rate and positive P&L, making a $3.3k contrarian No buy after a sharp Yes move.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $6.4k lifetime.
- They put $3.3k on No after Yes jumped 21 points in a day.
- Entry at 72¢ implies they see No as still underpriced despite the market now showing 66¢.
$1,118 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
79% winner buying NO
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has a 79% resolved-bet win rate and positive P&L, making a $3.3k contrarian No buy after a sharp Yes move.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $6.4k lifetime.
- They put $3.3k on No after Yes jumped 21 points in a day.
- Entry at 72¢ implies they see No as still underpriced despite the market now showing 66¢.
$3,252 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume political bettor placed a near-$5k thin-market Yes bet while also positioning across a related Iran-deal market.
- This bettor has won 71% of 437 resolved trades and is up about $264k lifetime.
- The $4.9k Yes buy was almost a full day’s normal volume in a thin market with only about $2.8k liquidity.
- They are also positioned across a related market, suggesting a broader Iran-deal thesis.
$4,859 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
82% winner buying NO
A highly profitable 82% lifetime winner is effectively buying No at 10¢ in a thin market, backed by a strong serial cross-market track record.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $775K lifetime.
- They are a serious cross-market trader, active across 61 events and $3.4M in tracked volume.
- This is effectively a No entry at 10¢ in a quiet market, with the trade over 2x recent 24h volume.
$1,924 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0x2b67...b814 — No, $3,329 (76% win rate)
- 0x60a9...5a71 — No, $2,012 (49% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Yes, $1,976 (58% win rate)
- 0x4478...02a4 — No, $1,934 (57% win rate)
- 0x97ea...3363 — Yes, $1,700 (69% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Yes, $1,648 (43% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Yes, $1,600
- 0x7c3d...5c6b — No, $1,571 (48% win rate)
- 0x69c9...3b29 — Yes, $1,038 (75% win rate)
- 0xa676...1c22 — No, $1,000 (44% win rate)
Related Theses
Hormuz blockade persists
Covers 9 related markets
Crude oil market arbitrage
Covers 11 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 13 related markets
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Covers 16 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
Iran deal by June end
Covers 3 related markets
