Part of: Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

This Polymarket asks whether Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf will sign a written agreement involving both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,118 in smart money activity, with recent alerts showing experienced traders buying the No side. The market resolves after the deadline, with the listed individual required to sign in an official capacity for a Yes outcome.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,152.

Categories: Trump, Peace Deal, geopolitcs, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Politics

Notable Trades

79% winner buying NO

Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has a 79% resolved-bet win rate and positive P&L, making a $3.3k contrarian No buy after a sharp Yes move.

  • This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $6.4k lifetime.
  • They put $3.3k on No after Yes jumped 21 points in a day.
  • Entry at 72¢ implies they see No as still underpriced despite the market now showing 66¢.

$1,118 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

79% winner buying NO

Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has a 79% resolved-bet win rate and positive P&L, making a $3.3k contrarian No buy after a sharp Yes move.

  • This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $6.4k lifetime.
  • They put $3.3k on No after Yes jumped 21 points in a day.
  • Entry at 72¢ implies they see No as still underpriced despite the market now showing 66¢.

$3,252 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume political bettor placed a near-$5k thin-market Yes bet while also positioning across a related Iran-deal market.

  • This bettor has won 71% of 437 resolved trades and is up about $264k lifetime.
  • The $4.9k Yes buy was almost a full day’s normal volume in a thin market with only about $2.8k liquidity.
  • They are also positioned across a related market, suggesting a broader Iran-deal thesis.

$4,859 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

82% winner buying NO

A highly profitable 82% lifetime winner is effectively buying No at 10¢ in a thin market, backed by a strong serial cross-market track record.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $775K lifetime.
  • They are a serious cross-market trader, active across 61 events and $3.4M in tracked volume.
  • This is effectively a No entry at 10¢ in a quiet market, with the trade over 2x recent 24h volume.

$1,924 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0x2b67...b814 No, $3,329 (76% win rate)
  2. 0x60a9...5a71 No, $2,012 (49% win rate)
  3. 0x7447...a16d Yes, $1,976 (58% win rate)
  4. 0x4478...02a4 No, $1,934 (57% win rate)
  5. 0x97ea...3363 Yes, $1,700 (69% win rate)
  6. 0xd426...334a Yes, $1,648 (43% win rate)
  7. 0xac4a...bf1e Yes, $1,600
  8. 0x7c3d...5c6b No, $1,571 (48% win rate)
  9. 0x69c9...3b29 Yes, $1,038 (75% win rate)
  10. 0xa676...1c22 No, $1,000 (44% win rate)

Related Theses

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

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WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Iran deal by June end

Covers 3 related markets

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

30dWho will sign U.S. x Iran deal?$11,152 tracked4 signalsTrumpPeace DealgeopolitcsIranU.S. x IranPolitics
Yes
7¢
No
94¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
97¢
88¢
79¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

10d ago

$1,118 on No at 72¢

72¢94¢22¢

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

10d ago

$3,252 on No at 72¢

72¢94¢22¢

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

13d ago

$4,859 on Yes at 89¢

89¢7¢82¢

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

15d ago

$1,924 on No at 10¢

10¢94¢84¢

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