Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $14,612.

Notable Trades

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?

A 26-day-old wallet has already made nine large flagged bets and is pressing a sizable position into a politically driven event market, suggesting real conviction despite no resolved track record yet.

  • This 26-day-old wallet has already triggered 9 large-bet alerts and put over $53k into flagged trades
  • They just bought No with $7.5k at 90¢, a strong high-confidence stance in a politics market
  • The wallet is also betting across 2 related event markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt

$7,491 on No

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?

A profitable high-volume bettor with a 70% win rate sold No into a very thin market, effectively taking Yes at a better price than the current odds while also showing related-event positioning.

  • This bettor has won 450 of 641 resolved trades and is up about $411k lifetime.
  • They sold No at 71¢ in a market with only about $3k of 24-hour volume, a bet bigger than the entire day's flow.
  • That exit price implies a Yes position around 29¢, below the current 34¢ market price.

$3,100 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?

A proven profitable bettor with 641 resolved trades bought No in a very thin geopolitical market with a $4,020 order that exceeded the market’s full 24h volume.

  • This bettor has won 70% of 641 resolved trades and is up $411k lifetime
  • The $4,020 buy was bigger than the market’s entire $2,996 24-hour volume, showing real conviction
  • They’re betting No at 67¢ in a geopolitical market where informed positioning is more plausible than in meme markets

$4,020 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $73,933 (72% win rate)
  2. 0xd57d...80d0 Yes, $18,888 (81% win rate)
  3. 0xde7b...5f4b Yes, $14,389 (88% win rate)
  4. 0x1b56...715e No, $14,000
  5. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $14,000 (46% win rate)
  6. 0xa9e6...1dc2 No, $13,737 (83% win rate)
  7. 0x4a41...242a No, $10,390 (41% win rate)
  8. 0x6d9f...9790 No, $10,074 (70% win rate)
  9. 0x2005...e414 No, $9,487
  10. 0x3541...462e No, $9,455 (48% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?

7d$14,612 tracked3 signalsPoliticsMiddle EastGeopoliticsTrumpIranUS-IranU.S. x IranIran CeasefireDiplomacy & Ceasefire
Yes
16¢
No
85¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?

11h ago

$7,491 on No at 90¢

90¢85¢5¢

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?

5d ago

$3,100 on Yes at 29¢

29¢16¢13¢

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?

6d ago

$4,020 on No at 67¢

67¢85¢18¢

Related Theses

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | PolySpotter